We introduce two general classes of reflected autoregressive processes, INGAR+ and GAR+. Here, INGAR+ can be seen as the counterpart of INAR(1) with general thinning and reflection being imposed to keep the process non-negative; GAR+ relates to AR(1) in an analogous manner. The two processes INGAR+ and GAR+ are shown to be connected via a duality relation. We proceed by presenting a detailed analysis of the time-dependent and stationary behavior of the INGAR+ process, and then exploit the duality relation to obtain the time-dependent and stationary behavior of the GAR+ process.

Agricultural economists have recently been attracted to procedures suggested by Granger and others which allow observed data to reveal causal relationships. Results of this study indicate that “causality” tests can be ambiguous in identifying behavioral relationships between agricultural price variables. Caution is suggested when using such procedures for model choice.

The additive-increase multiplicative-decrease (AIMD) schemes designed to control congestion in communication networks are investigated from a probabilistic point of view. Functional limit theorems for a general class of Markov processes that describe these algorithms are obtained. The asymptotic behaviour of the corresponding invariant measures is described in terms of the limiting Markov processes. For some special important cases, including TCP congestion avoidance, an important autoregressive property is proved. As a consequence, the explicit expression of the related invariant probabilities is derived. The transient behaviour of these algorithms is also analysed.

For autoregressive time series with positive innovations which either have heavy right or left tails, linear programming parameter estimates of the autoregressive coefficients have good rates of convergence. However, the asymptotic distribution of the estimators depends heavily on the distribution of the process and thus cannot be used for inference. A bootstrap procedure circumvents this difficulty. We verify the validity of the bootstrap and also give some general comments on the bootstrapping of heavy tailed phenomena.

Prediction for autoregressive sequences with finite second moment and of general order is considered. It is shown that the best predictor with time reversed is linear if and only if the innovations are Gaussian. The connection to time reversibility is also discussed.

Consider a sequence of possibly dependent random variables having the same marginal distribution F, whose tail 1−F is regularly varying at infinity with an unknown index − α < 0 which is to be estimated. For i.i.d. data or for dependent sequences with the same marginal satisfying mixing conditions, it is well known that Hill's estimator is consistent for α−1 and asymptotically normally distributed. The purpose of this paper is to emphasize the central role played by the tail empirical process for the problem of consistency. This approach allows us to easily prove Hill's estimator is consistent for infinite order moving averages of independent random variables. Our method also suffices to prove that, for the case of an AR model, the unknown index can be estimated using the residuals generated by the estimation of the autoregressive parameters.

Recent work by Athreya and Ney and by Nummelin on the limit theory for Markov chains shows that the close connection with regeneration theory holds also for chains on a general state space. Here this is used to study extremal behaviour of stationary (or asymptotically stationary) Markov chains. Many of the results center on the ‘clustering’ of extremes of adjacent values of the chains. In addition one criterion for convergence of extremes of general stationary sequences is derived. The results are applied to waiting times in the GI/G/1 queue and to autoregressive processes.

The relationship between consistency of model selection and that of parameter estimation is investigated. It is shown that the consistency of model selection is achieved at the cost of a lower order of consistency of the resulting estimate of parameters in some domain. The situation is different when selecting autoregressive moving average models, since the information matrix becomes singular when overfitted. Some detailed analyses of the consistency are given in this case.

A method is given for calculating the probability that n terms of a Gaussian first-order autoregressive series lie between any specified limits where n may be as large as 20 or more.

Strong mixing is a condition which is often assumed to prove limit theorems for strictly stationary processes. Leadbetter's condition D(un) is used to prove limit theorems for maxima of stationary processes.

A sufficient condition for strong mixing to hold is given for the case where the process satisfies a pth-order Markov property. This condition can be easy to check for when p is small. This point is illustrated by two examples of first-order autoregressive processes.

The condition D(un) is shown to hold for any stationary Markov process.

It is shown that there is an innovation process {∊n} such that the sequence of random variables {Xn} generated by the linear, additive first-order autoregressive scheme Xn = pXn-1 + ∊n are marginally distributed as gamma (λ, k) variables if 0 ≦p ≦ 1. This first-order autoregressive gamma sequence is useful for modelling a wide range of observed phenomena. Properties of sums of random variables from this process are studied, as well as Laplace-Stieltjes transforms of adjacent variables and joint moments of variables with different separations. The process is not time-reversible and has a zero-defect which makes parameter estimation straightforward. Other positive-valued variables generated by the first-order autoregressive scheme are studied, as well as extensions of the scheme for generating sequences with given marginal distributions and negative serial correlations.

In this paper a dam with autoregressive inputs and unit outputs is considered. Approximations for the distributions of the times to first emptiness and overflow are obtained using a Wald-type identity. The limiting behaviour of the dam content is also investigated