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RECAP: FORECASTING THE 2012 ELECTION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2013

James E. Campbell
James E. Campbell*
Affiliation:
University at Buffalo, SUNY
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Extract

The October 2012 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the months leading up to the election. In the following articles, the forecasters assess the accuracy of their models.

Type
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , January 2013 , pp. 37
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

The October 2012 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the months leading up to the election. In the following articles, the forecasters assess the accuracy of their models.

A month after Election Day and well after the post-mortems had been written, vote counting continues. The national two-party popular vote percentage for President Obama used in these postmortems was updated to 51.8\%. As the issue goes to press the two-party vote share for President Obama now stands at 51.9%.

Editor's Note: A typographical error in the October 2012 issue ofPSforecasting symposium's summary table of the forecasts (PS: Political Science and Politics45 (4): 612) stated that Klarner predicted Obama would receive 51.2% of the two-party popular vote. His prediction was that Obama would receive 51.3%.

We regret the error.