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INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE OF ECONOMICS AND PHILOSOPHY ON AMBIGUITY AVERSION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 November 2009

Giacomo Bonanno
Affiliation:
University of California, Davis
Martin van Hees
Affiliation:
University of Groningen
Christian List
Affiliation:
London School of Economics
Bertil Tungodden
Affiliation:
Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
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Extract

The paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty has undoubtedly been the theory of Expected Utility, which was first developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and later extended by Savage (1954) to the case of subjective uncertainty. The inadequacy of the theory of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) as a descriptive theory was soon pointed out in experiments, most famously by Allais (1953) and Ellsberg (1961). The observed departures from SEU noticed by Allais and Ellsberg became known as “paradoxes”. The Ellsberg paradox gave rise, several years later, to a new literature on decision-making under ambiguity. The theoretical side of this literature was pioneered by Schmeidler (1989). This literature views the departures from SEU in situations similar to those discussed by Ellsberg as rational responses to ambiguity. The rationality is “recovered” by relaxing Savage's Sure-Thing principle and adding an ambiguity-aversion postulate. Thus the ambiguity-aversion literature takes a normative point of view and does consider Ellsberg-type choices as behavioural “anomalies”.

Type
Introduction
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

The paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty has undoubtedly been the theory of Expected Utility, which was first developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern (Reference von Neumann and Morgenstern1944) and later extended by Savage (Reference Savage1954) to the case of subjective uncertainty. The inadequacy of the theory of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) as a descriptive theory was soon pointed out in experiments, most famously by Allais (Reference Allais1953) and Ellsberg (Reference Ellsberg1961). The observed departures from SEU noticed by Allais and Ellsberg became known as “paradoxes”. The Ellsberg paradox gave rise, several years later, to a new literature on decision-making under ambiguity. The theoretical side of this literature was pioneered by Schmeidler (Reference Schmeidler1989). This literature views the departures from SEU in situations similar to those discussed by Ellsberg as rational responses to ambiguity. The rationality is “recovered” by relaxing Savage's Sure-Thing principle and adding an ambiguity-aversion postulate. Thus the ambiguity-aversion literature takes a normative point of view and does consider Ellsberg-type choices as behavioural “anomalies”.

Although the theoretical literature on ambiguity aversion has been growing at a fast pace over the past 20 years, not enough attention has been paid to the philosophical, conceptual and methodological aspects of the issues surrounding the notion of ambiguity. Recently Al Najjar and Weinstein wrote a critical assessment of this literature by asking whether the various models of ambiguity aversion that have been proposed can indeed be interpreted as capturing a consistent notion of rationality. The Editors of Economics and Philosophy thought that this paper would not only be a good fit for the journal but would also provide a stimulus for a fruitful debate. Following the same format that was used for the special issue on Neuroeconomics (Economics and Philosophy, Vol. 24, Number 3, November 2008) the Editors invited a number of prominent contributors to the field to either write a comment on the critique put forward by Al Najjar and Weinstein or to write a short paper outlining their views on the conceptual issue that arise in the context of ambiguity. Although, unfortunately, only a subset of the people who were invited to contribute eventually delivered, we are very pleased to have assembled a collection of high-quality and thought-provoking contributions by distinguished experts in decision-making under uncertainty. Their comments were then forwarded to Al Najjar and Weinstein with an invitation to write a Rejoinder.

The Editors of Economics and Philosophy are very pleased with the final product of this special issue and hope that this collection will stimulate further fruitful debate among economists and philosophers on the important topic of decision-making under ambiguity.

References

REFERENCES

Allais, M. 1953. Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école Américaine, Econometrica 21: 503–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellsberg, D. 1961. Risk, ambiguity and the Savage axioms, Quarterly Journal of Economics 75: 643–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
von Neumann, J. and Morgenstern, O.. 1944. Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Savage, L. 1954. The foundations of statistics. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Schmeidler, D. 1989. Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity. Econometrica 57: 571–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar