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Accepted manuscript

How the structure of scientific communities could impact the public uptake of uncertain science

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 March 2025

Sacha Ferrari
Affiliation:
Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science, KU Leuven, Belgium
Wouter Lammers
Affiliation:
Public Governance Institute, KU Leuven, Belgium
Sylvia Wenmackers*
Affiliation:
Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science, KU Leuven, Belgium
*
*Corresponding author: Sylvia Wenmackers; Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

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We present an agent-based model to study how the network structure of a scientific community could impact the public uptake of science, and how this impact is influenced by scientific uncertainty and affinity bias. For unbiased agents, a highly connected scientific network decreases the probability that the public favors the correct theory. For biased agents, however, a moderately connected scientific network causes the public to favor the correct theory more often. This results from the competition between the scarcity of information (for poorly connected agents) and the spread of misleading information (for highly connected agents). Adding more scientists strengthens both effects.

Type
Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Philosophy of Science Association