This study demonstrates how subtle signals taken from the early stages within a construction process can be used to diagnose potential problems within that process. For this study, the construction process is modeled as a quasi-Markov chain. A set of six different scenarios representing various common problems (e.g., small budget, complex project) is created and simulated by suitably defining the transition probabilities between nodes in the Markov chain. A Monte Carlo approach is used to parameterize a Bayesian estimator. By observing the time taken to pass the review gateway (as measured by number of hops between activity nodes), the system is able to determine with good accuracy the problem scenario that the construction process is suffering from.

Engineering risk methods and tools account for and make decisions about risk using an expected-value approach. Psychological research has shown that stakeholders and decision makers hold domain-specific risk attitudes that often vary between individuals and between enterprises. Moreover, certain companies and industries (e.g., the nuclear power industry and aerospace corporations) are very risk-averse whereas other organizations and industrial sectors (e.g., IDEO, located in the innovation and design sector) are risk tolerant and actually thrive by making risky decisions. Engineering risk methods such as failure modes and effects analysis, fault tree analysis, and others are not equipped to help stakeholders make decisions under risk-tolerant or risk-averse decision-making conditions. This article presents a novel method for translating engineering risk data from the expected-value domain into a risk appetite corrected domain using utility functions derived from the psychometric Engineering Domain-Specific Risk-Taking test results under a single-criterion decision-based design approach. The method is aspirational rather than predictive in nature through the use of a psychometric test rather than lottery methods to generate utility functions. Using this method, decisions can be made based upon risk appetite corrected risk data. We discuss development and application of the method based upon a simplified space mission design in a collaborative design-center environment. The method is shown to change risk-based decisions in certain situations where a risk-averse or risk-tolerant decision maker would likely choose differently than the expected-value approach dictates.

Decision making is a significant activity within industry and although much attention has been paid to the manner in which goals impact on how decision making is executed, there has been less focus on the impact decision making resources can have. This article describes an experiment that sought to provide greater insight into the impact that resources can have on how decision making is executed. Investigated variables included the experience levels of decision makers and the quality and availability of information resources. The experiment provided insights into the variety of impacts that resources can have upon decision making, manifested through the evolution of the approaches, methods, and processes used within it. The findings illustrated that there could be an impact on the decision-making process but not on the method or approach, the method and process but not the approach, or the approach, method, and process. In addition, resources were observed to have multiple impacts, which can emerge in different timescales. Given these findings, research is suggested into the development of resource-impact models that would describe the relationships existing between the decision-making activity and resources, together with the development of techniques for reasoning using these models. This would enhance the development of systems that could offer improved levels of decision support through managing the impact of resources on decision making.

One of the fundamental elements that determines the precision of coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) is the probe, which locates measuring points within measurement volume. In this paper genetically generated fuzzy knowledge based models of three-dimensional (3-D) probing accuracy for one- and two-stage touch trigger probes are proposed. The fuzzy models are automatically generated using a dedicated genetic algorithm developed by the authors. The algorithm uses hybrid coding, binary for the rule base and real for the database. This hybrid coding, used with a set of specialized operators of reproduction, proved to be an effective learning environment in this case. Data collection of the measured objects' coordinates was carried out using a special setup for probe testing. The authors used a novel method that applies a low-force high-resolution displacement transducer for probe error examination in 3-D space outside the CMM measurement. The genetically generated fuzzy models are constructed for both one stage (TP6) and two stage (TP200) types of probes. First, the optimal number of settings is defined using an analysis of the influence of fuzzy rules on TP6 accuracy. Then, once the number of settings is obtained, near optimal fuzzy knowledge bases are generated for both TP6 and TP200 triggering probes, followed by analysis of the finalized fuzzy rules bases for knowledge extraction about the relationships between physical setup values and error levels of the probes. The number of fuzzy sets on each premise leads to the number of physical setups needed to get satisfactory error profiles, whereas the fuzzy rules base adds to the knowledge linking the design experiment parameters to the pretravel error of CMM machines. Satisfactory fuzzy logic equivalents of the 3-D error profiles were obtained for both TP6 and TP200 with root mean squsre errors ranging from 0.00 mm to a maximum of 0.58 mm.