The Trump administration formally recognized Juan Guaidó as the interim president of Venezuela on January 23, 2019, making the United States the first nation to officially accept the legitimacy of Guaidó’s government and reject incumbent President Nicolás Maduro's claim to the presidency. In a campaign designed to oust Maduro from power, the United States has encouraged foreign governments and intergovernmental organizations to recognize Guaidó and has imposed a series of targeted economic sanctions to weaken Maduro's regime. As of June 2019, however, Maduro remained in power within Venezuela.
Maduro was elected for a second presidential term of six years in May 2018, after an election that was criticized as unfair and illegitimate.Footnote 1 Several days before his inauguration on January 10, 2019, the Lima Group announced that it would not recognize the legitimacy of Maduro's second term and urged Maduro not to assume the presidency.Footnote 2 On the day of Maduro's inauguration, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “condemn[ed] Maduro's illegitimate usurpation of power” and “reiterate[d] [U.S.] support for Venezuela's National Assembly, the only legitimate branch of government duly elected by the Venezuelan people.”Footnote 3
Five days prior to Maduro's inauguration, Guaidó was sworn in as the leader of the National Assembly and swiftly invoked Article 233 of Venezuela's Constitution, which provides for the temporary transfer of powers to the president of the National Assembly in the absence of a duly elected president.Footnote 4 Guaidó declared himself interim president of Venezuela on January 23, 2019.Footnote 5
Also on January 23, the United States recognized Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela.Footnote 6 Pursuant to his exclusive authority as a matter of U.S. constitutional law to recognize foreign governments,Footnote 7 President Trump stated:
Today, I am officially recognizing the President of the Venezuelan National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, as the Interim President of Venezuela. In its role as the only legitimate branch of government duly elected by the Venezuelan people, the National Assembly invoked the country's constitution to declare Nicolas Maduro illegitimate and the office of the Presidency therefore vacant. The people of Venezuela have courageously spoken out against Maduro and his regime and demanded freedom and the rule of law.Footnote 8
Trump vowed to “continue to use the full weight of United States economic and diplomatic power to press for the restoration of Venezuelan democracy” and called on other states to recognize Guaidó as the interim president of Venezuela.Footnote 9
Immediately following Guaidó’s claim to the presidency and Trump's official recognition thereof, Maduro responded with dismissal: “I am the only president of Venezuela . . . . We do not want to return to the 20th century of gringo interventions and coups d’état.”Footnote 10 With tensions high,Footnote 11 Pompeo withdrew a significant number of U.S. diplomats on January 24, and eventually made the decision on March 11 to “withdraw all remaining U.S. personnel from the U.S. Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela,” citing “the deteriorating situation in Venezuela as well as the conclusion that the presence of U.S. diplomatic staff at the embassy has become a constraint on U.S. policy.”Footnote 12
The day after the U.S. recognition of Guaidó, Venezuela Minister of Defense Vladimir Padrino López declared loyalty to Maduro's government.Footnote 13 In a televised announcement, López “warn[ed] the people of Venezuela that a coup is taking place against … President Nicolas Maduro, legitimate president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” and proclaimed Guaidó’s actions as a threat to the rule of law in Venezuela.Footnote 14 Maduro also received the backing of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who “expressed support for the legitimate Venezuelan authorities amid the worsening of the internal political crisis provoked from outside the country” and condemned such “destructive external interference [as] a gross violation of the fundamental norms of international law.”Footnote 15
On January 25, Pompeo reinforced the U.S. view of the legitimacy of Guaidó’s presidency by “certif[ying] the authority of Venezuela's interim President Juan Guaidó to receive and control certain property in accounts of the Government of Venezuela or Central Bank of Venezuela held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or any other U.S. insured banks.”Footnote 16 The State Department indicated that “[t]his certification will help Venezuela's legitimate government safeguard those assets for the benefit of the Venezuelan people” and “call[ed] on other governments to recognize interim President Juan Guaidó and take similar steps to protect Venezuela's patrimony from further theft by Maduro's corrupt regime.”Footnote 17
Pompeo addressed the United Nations Security Council on January 26 and urged its members to “support Venezuela's democratic transition and interim President Guaidó’s role in it.”Footnote 18 Pompeo called on all countries to “pick a side”: “Either you stand with the forces of freedom or you're in league with Maduro and his mayhem.”Footnote 19 On February 28, 2019, the United States proposed to the Security Council a draft resolution that would
call[] for the start of a peaceful political process leading to free, fair, and credible presidential elections … [s]upport[] the peaceful restoration of democracy and rule of law in Venezuela; request[] the Secretary-General utilize his good offices to help ensure free, fair, and credible presidential elections, and encourage[] subsequent peaceful, inclusive, and credible initiatives to address the prolonged crisis in the country.Footnote 20
Though nine members voted to pass the resolution, it was ultimately vetoed by both Russia and China.Footnote 21
Vice President Michael Pence returned to a special session of the Security Council on April 10, at which time he “called on the United Nations to revoke the credentials of Venezuela's representative to the United Nations, recognize Interim President Juan Guaidó, and seat the representative of the free Venezuelan government without delay.”Footnote 22 Pence stated that “the United States is preparing a resolution recognizing the legitimacy of the government of Interim President Juan Guaidó” and urged “every member of the Security Council and all U.N. member states to support this resolution.”Footnote 23
In the days and weeks that followed the U.S. recognition of Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela, Pompeo, Pence, and Trump met with governments in the region to reaffirm the U.S. support for Guaidó and its partnership with regional state allies concerning its efforts in Venezuela.Footnote 24 Dozens of states, including many nations from Latin America and Europe, and a number of major intergovernmental organizations, including the Organization of American States (OAS),Footnote 25 the European Union (EU),Footnote 26 and the Lima Group,Footnote 27 have formally recognized Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela.Footnote 28 In contrast, other nations have publicly affirmed their support of Maduro's government, including Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba.Footnote 29
Well before recognizing Guaidó as the interim president, the United States had begun using sanctions and visa revocations designed to pressure Maduro's government.Footnote 30 Sanctions originating under the Obama administration in 2015 and increasing under the Trump administration led Venezuela to request consultations with the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2018.Footnote 31 In its request, Venezuela claimed:
[T]he unilateral coercive trade-restrictive measures imposed by the United States on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela violate its obligations under Articles I:1, II:1, III:4, V:2, X:3, XI:1 and XIII:1 of the GATT 1994 … [and] the United States’ commitments under Articles II:1, XVI:2 and XVII:1 of the GATS.Footnote 32
Following its recognition of Guaidó, the United States has refused to engage in the consultation process at the WTO in light of its view that the Maduro government is illegitimate and therefore cannot represent Venezuela at the WTO.Footnote 33 A WTO official stated that a dispute settlement meeting scheduled for March 26 would be postponed “until further notice.”Footnote 34
Following the United States’ recognition of Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela in January 2019, the Trump administration has undertaken still more sanctions and visa revocations designed to pressure the Maduro regime. The Trump administration announced on January 28 that it would impose sanctions against Venezuela's oil sector, including the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA).Footnote 35 Pompeo declared that such sanctions would
prevent the illegitimate former Maduro regime from further plundering Venezuela's assets and natural resources … [and] further enriching themselves at the expense of the long-suffering Venezuelan people. It will also preserve the core pillar of Venezuela's national assets for the people and a democratically elected government.Footnote 36
The sanctions also barred most American companies from engaging in business transactions with PDVSA.Footnote 37 National Security Advisor John Bolton estimated that these sanctions would “total[] $7 billion in assets blocked today, plus over $11 billion in lost export proceeds over the next year.”Footnote 38 Maduro responded by denouncing the sanctions as “unilateral, illegal, immoral and criminal,” threatening Trump that he “will have blood on [his] hands.”Footnote 39
The Trump administration continued rolling out sanctions and visa revocations in its attempt to “hold corrupt officials of the former illegitimate Maduro regime accountable.”Footnote 40 On February 15, the State Department announced that it would be “imposing sanctions on five current or former officials of the illegitimate Maduro regime” in addition to previously announced visa restrictions and revocations on members of the “illegitimate Constituent Assembly” and the “illegitimate Supreme Court.”Footnote 41 That same day, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced:
Treasury continues to target officials who have helped the illegitimate Maduro regime repress the Venezuelan people. We are sanctioning officials in charge of Maduro's security and intelligence apparatus, which has systematically violated human rights and suppressed democracy, including through torture and other brutal use of force force . . . . We are intent on going after those facilitating Maduro's corruption and predation, including by sanctioning the President of PdVSA and others diverting assets that rightfully belong to the people of Venezuela.Footnote 42
The Trump administration imposed additional sanctions on politicians and officials aligned with the Maduro regime on February 25Footnote 43 and March 1.Footnote 44 U.S. Special Representative for Venezuela Elliott Abrams announced the imposition of visa restrictions on forty-nine individuals determined to be “responsible for undermining Venezuela's democracy” on February 28Footnote 45 and the revocation of seventy-seven visas belonging to “regime officials and their families” the following week.Footnote 46 On March 15, Abrams stated that an additional 340 visas had been revoked, promising that “that's a process that will continue.”Footnote 47
On March 11, the United States sanctioned “Evrofinance Mosnarbank, a Moscow-based bank jointly owned by Russia and Venezuela” responsible for “facilitating illegitimate transactions that prolong Maduro's usurpation of democracy.”Footnote 48 The State Department announced on March 19 that the United States was designating a state-owned gold sector company to fall under the scope of Executive Order 13,850, which was signed by Trump on November 1, 2018, and “targets persons operating in the gold sector of the Venezuelan economy.”Footnote 49 On March 22, the Trump administration announced sanctions against several state-affiliated Venezuelan banks and further determined that “persons operating in Venezuela's financial sector could be subject to sanctions pursuant to Executive Order 13850.”Footnote 50
The Trump administration ratcheted up the pressure of its economic sanctions in April 2019 by targeting oil shipments between Venezuela and Cuba,Footnote 51 as well as financial activities of the Central Bank of Venezuela (CBV).Footnote 52 The Cuban oil sanctions sought to “hinder the [Maduro] regime's further theft and the predatory influence of Cuba, which takes Venezuela's oil and pays the regime with security and intelligence forces to keep Nicolas Maduro in power.”Footnote 53 The Trump administration dealt a further blow in its April 17 sanctions against the CBV, which “formulates and implements Venezuela's monetary policy, issues currency, and manages the country's international reserves.”Footnote 54 By targeting the CBV, these sanctions “close[d] off a few remaining critical paths for financing” by the Maduro regime.Footnote 55
Although the Trump administration's campaign of economic sanctions has effectively drained most avenues for funding by Maduro's government,Footnote 56 the Trump administration has consistently exempted humanitarian assistance and insisted that the sanctions “do not target the innocent people of Venezuela.”Footnote 57 Despite this assertion, Venezuela's economic situation has worsened severely under the prolonged sanctions,Footnote 58 and the humanitarian crisis remains devastating.Footnote 59
On April 30, Guaidó launched his most assertive challenge yet to the authority of Maduro's government by calling on the people of Venezuela, at a military base in Caracas with uniformed soldiers standing by his side, to rise up and overtake the Maduro regime.Footnote 60 Guaidó announced that “brave soldiers, brave patriots, brave men attached to the Constitution have followed our call,” and “the definitive end of the usurpation starts today.”Footnote 61 Despite Guaidó’s call and Pompeo's insistence that “[Maduro] had an airplane on the tarmac” and “was ready to leave [that] morning,” Maduro remained in power by day's end.Footnote 62 Violent protests erupted throughout the day, and López dismissed the day's events as “an attempt at a coup, without a doubt, at a mediocre level.”Footnote 63 In the days following, Maduro addressed soldiers at a military base in Caracas: “Soldiers of the fatherland, it's time to fight!”Footnote 64 On May 1, Pompeo indicated that “[m]ilitary action [in Venezuela] is possible. If that's what's required, that's what the United States will do.”Footnote 65 In mid-May, representatives of Maduro and Guaidó met for talks in Norway.Footnote 66