Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

Velocities within an icefall are typically the fastest within a glacier system and experience complex flow. The combination of convergent and fast flow, and steep slope generate a quickly changing and intensely fractured surface. This complicates velocity extraction from repeat satellite images, especially when common pattern matching procedures are used. In this study, we exploit the high temporal revisit of medium-resolution satellite images using a novel image matching technique, ensemble matching, making it possible to generate a high-resolution (30 m) velocity field from high-repeat image sequences despite challenging image conditions. We demonstrate this technique for the first time in the glaciology domain using repeat Sentinel-2 optical data over the famous Khumbu icefall, situated on the southern slopes of Mount Everest. Estimates of velocity go just over 1 m d−1, which is slower than summer velocities from noisy single pair image matching. This icefall is frequently crossed by high-altitude mountaineers who use a route confined by fixed ropes and ladders set out every season. The mountain climbers typically record their trajectory on their personal satellite navigation device. We use such volunteered geographic information to verify our velocity estimates, confirming our underestimation with ensemble matching. Besides unprecedented remotely sensed surface velocities over the icefall, we also note that the generated velocity field can aid with the planning of a safe passage through this icefall.

Under the potential to reconstruct the past climatic and atmospheric conditions from a deep ice core in the coastal Antarctic site (Styx Glacier), an 8.84 m long firn core (73°50.975′ S, 163°41.640′ E; 1623 m a.s.l.) was initially studied to propose a reliable age scale for the local estimation of snow accumulation rate. The seasonal variations of δ18O, methanesulfonic acid (MSA) and non-sea-salt sulfate (nssSO42–) were used for the firn core dating and revealed 25 annual peaks (from 1990 to 2014) with volcanic sulfate signal. The observed declining trend in annual accumulation rate with a mean value of 146 ± 60 kg m–2 a–1 is likely to be linked to the changes of sea-ice extent in the Ross Sea region. Moreover, the temporal variation of the annual mean δ18O, an annual flux of MSA and nssSO42– also likely to be under the influence of ice-covered and open water area. This study suggests a potential to recover past changes in an oceanic environment and will be useful for the interpretation of the long ice core drilled at the same site.

Glaciers in the eastern Pamir have reportedly been gaining mass during recent decades, even though glaciers in most other regions in High Mountain Asia have been in recession. Questions still remain about whether the trend is strengthening or weakening, and how far the positive balances extend into the eastern Pamir. To address these gaps, we use three different digital elevation models to reconstruct glacier surface elevation changes over two periods (2000–09 and 2000–15/16). We characterize the eastern Pamir as a zone of transition from positive to negative mass balance with the boundary lying at the northern end of Kongur Tagh, and find that glaciers situated at higher elevations are those with the most positive balances. Most (67% of 55) glaciers displayed a net mass gain since the 21st century. This led to an increasing regional geodetic glacier mass balance from −0.06 ± 0.16 m w.e. a−1 in 2000–09 to 0.06 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1 in 2000–15/16. Surge-type glaciers, which are prevalent in the eastern Pamir, showed fluctuations in mass balance on an individual scale during and after surges, but no statistical difference compared to non-surge-type glaciers when aggregated across the region.

Glaciers and the periglacial environment in Argentina have been protected by the Law since 2010. This legislation required the development of the first National Glacier Inventory (NGI), which was officially presented in May 2018 and based on satellite images spanning between 2004 and 2016. Here, we present the methods and results of the NGI, summarize the glaciers’ morphological and spatial characteristics, and compare our results to previous regional and global inventories. The NGI reveals an impressive variety of ice masses including rock glaciers, permanent snowfields, mountain and valley glaciers with varying amounts of debris-cover and large outlet glaciers. The Argentinean Andes contain 16 078 ice masses covering an area of 5769 km2 between 200 and 6900 m a.s.l. Comparison of the combined national inventories of Argentina and Chile (~30 000 glaciers and 28 400 km2) with the Randolph Glacier Inventory 6.0 for the Southern Andes (~16 000 glaciers and 29 400 km2), shows that there are large differences in extent and number of glaciers in some sub-regions. The NGI represents an improvement for a better understanding of Argentina's freshwater reservoirs and provides detailed information for the preservation and study of ice masses along 4000 km of the Southern Andes.

Turbulent fluxes make a substantial and growing contribution to the energy balance of ice surfaces globally, but are poorly constrained owing to challenges in estimating the aerodynamic roughness length (z0). Here, we used structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) surveys to make plot-scale 2-D and 3-D microtopographic estimations of z0 and upscale these to map z0 across an ablating mountain glacier. At plot scales, we found spatial variability in z0 estimates of over two orders of magnitude with unpredictable z0 trajectories, even when classified into ice surface types. TLS-derived surface roughness exhibited strong relationships with plot-scale SfM z0 estimates. At the glacier scale, a consistent increase in z0 of ~0.1 mm d−1 was observed. Space-for-time substitution based on time since surface ice was exposed by snow melt confirmed this gradual increase in z0 over 60 d. These measurements permit us to propose a scale-dependent temporal z0 evolution model where unpredictable variability at the plot scale gives way to more predictable changes of z0 at the glacier scale. This model provides a critical step towards deriving spatially and temporally distributed representations of z0 that are currently lacking in the parameterisation of distributed glacier surface energy balance models.

Using frequency-modulated continuous wave radar data from the 32nd Chinese Antarctic Research Expedition in 2015/16, subsurface profiles were obtained along an East Antarctic inland traverse from Zhongshan station to Dome A, and four distinct regions were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal variability in historical surface mass balance (SMB). Based on depth, density, and age data from ice cores along the traverse, the radar data were calibrated to yield average SMB data. The zone 49–195 km from the coast has the highest SMB (235 kg m−2 a−1). The 780–892 km zone was most affected by the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, and the SMB during ad 1454–1836 (71 kg m−2 a−1) was only one-quarter of that in the 20th century. The SMB in the 1080–1157 km zone fluctuates the most, possibly due to erosion or irregular deposition of snow by katabatic winds in low SMB areas with surface elevation fluctuations. Dome A (1157–1236 km) has the lowest SMB (29 kg m−2 a−1) and did not decrease during Little Ice Age. Understanding the spatiotemporal variability of SMB in a larger space can help us understand the complex climate history of Antarctica.

Supraglacial debris is significant in many regions and complicates modeling of glacier melt, which is required for predicting glacier change and its influences on hydrology and sea-level rise. Temperature-index models are a popular alternative to energy-balance models when forcing data are limited, but their transferability among glaciers and inherent uncertainty have not been documented in application to debris-covered glaciers. Here, melt factors were compiled directly from published studies or computed from reported melt and MERRA-2 air temperature for 27 debris-covered glaciers around the world. Linear mixed-effects models were fit to predict melt factors from debris thickness and variables including debris lithology and MERRA-2 radiative exchange. The models were tested by leave-one-site-out cross-validation based on predicted melt rates. The best model included debris thickness (fixed effect) and glacier and year (random effects). Predictions were more accurate using MERRA-2 than on-site air temperature data, and pooling MERRA-2-derived and reported melt factors improved cross-validation accuracy more than including additional predictors such as shortwave or longwave radiation. At one glacier where monthly ablation was measured over 4 years, seasonal variation of melt factors suggested that heat storage significantly affected the relation between melt and energy exchange at the debris surface.

Glacier ice thickness is crucial to quantifying water resources in mountain regions, and is an essential input for ice-flow models. Using a surface velocity inversion method, we combine ice thickness measurements with detailed surface elevation and velocity data, and derive ice thickness and volume estimates for the Monte Tronador glaciers, North Patagonian Andes. We test the dependence of the inversion model on surface slope by resampling glacier slopes using variable smoothing filter sizes of 16–720 m. While total glacier volumes do not differ considerably, ice thickness estimates show higher variability depending on filter size. Smaller (larger) smoothing scales give thinner (thicker) ice and higher (lower) noise in ice thickness distribution. A filter size of 300 m, equivalent to four times the mean ice thickness, produces a noise-free thickness distribution with an accuracy of 35 m. We estimate the volume of the Monte Tronador glaciers at 4.8 ± 2 km3 with a mean ice thickness of 75 m. Comparison of our results with earlier regional and global assessments shows that the quality of glacier inventories is a significant source of discrepancy. We show that including surface slope as an input parameter increases the accuracy of ice thickness distribution estimates.

Knowledge of the precipitation contribution to the Antarctic surface mass balance is essential for defining the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise. Observations of precipitation are sparse over Antarctica, due to harsh environmental conditions. Precipitation during the summer months (November–December–January) on four expeditions, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18 and 2018–19, in the Terra Nova Bay area, were monitored using a vertically pointing radar, disdrometer, snow gauge, radiosounding and an automatic weather station installed at the Italian Mario Zucchelli Station. The relationship between radar reflectivity and precipitation rate at the site can be estimated using these instruments jointly. The error in calculated precipitation is up to 40%, mostly dependent on reflectivity variability and disdrometer inability to define the real particle fall velocity. Mean derived summer precipitation is ~55 mm water equivalent but with a large variability. During collocated measurements in 2018–19, corrected snow gauge amounts agree with those derived from the relationship, within the estimated errors. European Centre for the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) analysis and operational outputs are able to forecast the precipitation timing but do not adequately reproduce quantities during the most intense events, with overestimation for ECMWF and underestimation for AMPS.

The representation of iceberg calving in numerical models is a key source of uncertainty in century-scale sea-level rise projections. Parameters central to model representations of calving, including the tensile strength of glacier ice, remain poorly constrained. Grain-size and sample-size dependence make it difficult to reconcile laboratory and in situ estimates of ice tensile strength. Further, assumptions of various numerical models obscure comparison of the ‘strength’ parameter with a physically observable value. Here, we address the problem of fracture during calving using an analogous natural laboratory: a viscoelastic analysis of observed surface deformation and associated stresses in the 2015 collapse of eastern Skaftá cauldron, Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland. We find that the ice within the cauldron could have experienced instantaneous elastic stress on the order of several MPa. We observe surface crevasses at the cauldron edges and center, but find that large areas of ice remain intact despite high stress. Our findings suggest a tensile strength of glacier ice on the order of 1 MPa, consistent with laboratory estimates but exceeding previous glacier-specific estimates.

Glaciers in the Alps and several other regions in the world have experienced strong negative mass balances over the past few decades. Some of them are disappearing, undergoing exceptionally negative mass balances that impact the mean regional value, and require replacement. In this study, we analyse the geomorphometric characteristics of 46 mass-balance glaciers in the Alps and the long-term mass-balance time series for a subset of nine reference glaciers. We identify regime shifts in the mass-balance time series (when non-climatic controls started impacting) and develop a glacier vulnerability index (GVI) as a proxy for their possible future development, based on criteria such as hypsometric index, breaks in slope, thickness distribution and elevation change pattern. We found that the subset of 46 mass-balance glaciers reflects the characteristics of the total glacier sample very well and identified a region-specific variability of the mass balance. As the GVI is strongly related to cumulative glacier mass balances, it can be used as a pre-selector of future mass-balance glaciers. We conclude that measurements on rapidly shrinking glaciers should be continued as long as possible to identify regime shifts in hind-cast and better understand the impacts of climatic variability on such glaciers.

Several global datasets of glacier thickness exist, but the number of observations from western Canada are sparse and spatially biased. To supplement these limited observations, we measured ice thickness with ice penetrating radar on five glaciers in the Columbia Mountains, Canada. Our radar surveys, when combined with previous surveys for two glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, total 182 km of transects that represent 34 672 point measurements of ice thickness. Our measurements are, on average, 38% thicker than previous surface inversion model estimates of glacier thickness. Using our measurements within a cross-validation scheme, we model ice thickness with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) driven with recent observations of surface mass balance and glacier elevation. We calibrated OGGM ice thickness by optimizing the ice creep parameter in the model. The optimized OGGM yields an ice volume for Columbia Basin of 122.5 ± 22.4 km3 for the year 2000, which is 23% greater than the range of previous estimates. At current rates of glacier mass loss for this region, glaciers would disappear from the basin in about 65–80 years. Disappearance of these glaciers will negatively affect the basin's surface hydrology, freshwater availability and aquatic ecosystems.

Ice rises and rumples, locally grounded features adjacent to ice shelves, are relatively small yet play significant roles in Antarctic ice dynamics. Their roles generally depend upon their location within the ice shelf and the stage of the ice-sheet retreat or advance. Large, long-stable ice rises can be excellent sites for deep ice coring and paleoclimate study of the Antarctic coast and the Southern Ocean, while small ice rises tend to respond more promptly and can be used to reveal recent changes in regional mass balance. The coasts of Dronning Maud Land (DML) and Enderby Land in East Antarctica are abundant with these features. Here we review existing knowledge, presenting an up-to-date status of research in these regions with focus on ice rises and rumples. We use regional datasets (satellite imagery, surface mass balance and ice thickness) to analyze the extent and surface morphology of ice shelves and characteristic timescales of ice rises. We find that large parts of DML have been changing over the past several millennia. Based on our findings, we highlight ice rises suitable for drilling ice cores for paleoclimate studies as well as ice rises suitable for deciphering ice dynamics and evolution in the region.