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A new look at the simple epidemic process

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2016

L. Billard ,
H. Lacayo  and
N. A. Langberg
L. Billard*
Affiliation:
Florida State University
H. Lacayo*
Affiliation:
Florida State University
N. A. Langberg*
Affiliation:
Florida State University
*
∗ Postal address: Department of Statistics and Statistical Consulting Center, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, U.S.A.
∗ Postal address: Department of Statistics and Statistical Consulting Center, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, U.S.A.
∗ Postal address: Department of Statistics and Statistical Consulting Center, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, U.S.A.
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Abstract

Classical epidemic models have invariably proved to be mathematically intractable. By considering the distribution of the number of infectives in a simple epidemic process as a convolution of exponential waiting times, the solution to the classical model is obtained easily giving more insight into the underlying structure. The idea can be extended to other simple epidemic models.

Keywords

SIMPLE STOCHASTIC EPIDEMICINTERINFECTION TIMESDISTRIBUTION OF INFECTIVES
Type
Short Communications
Information
Journal of Applied Probability , Volume 16 , Issue 1 , March 1979 , pp. 198 - 202
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1979 

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Footnotes

†

Research supported by NSF Grant No. MCS76–10453.

References

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Mcneil, D. R. (1972) On the simple stochastic epidemic. Biometrika 59, 494–497.Google Scholar
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