Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-g7gxr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-04T19:19:13.418Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Implications of the Doha market access proposals for developing countries

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 January 2012

DAVID LABORDE ,
WILL MARTIN  and
DOMINIQUE VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE
DAVID LABORDE
Affiliation:
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC
WILL MARTIN*
Affiliation:
World Bank, Washington, DC
DOMINIQUE VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE
Affiliation:
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Rome
*
*Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This paper uses detailed data on bound and applied tariffs to assess the consequences of the WTO's December 2008 Modalities for tariffs levied and faced by developing countries, and the welfare implications of these reforms. We find that the tiered formula for agriculture would halve tariffs in industrial countries and lower them more modestly in developing countries. In non-agricultural market access (NAMA), the formulas would reduce the tariff peaks facing developing countries and cut average industrial country tariffs by more than a third. We use a political-economy framework to assess the implications of flexibilities for the size of the tariff cuts and find they are likely to substantially reduce the outcome. However, despite the flexibilities, there are likely to be worthwhile gains, with applied tariffs facing developing countries cut by about 20% in agriculture and 28% in NAMA, and sizeable cuts in tariffs facing industrial countries. The welfare impacts of reform are evaluated using a new approach to aggregation that improves on the traditional, flawed approach of weighted-average tariffs. This substantially increases the estimated benefits of an agreement along the lines of these modalities, with estimated global income gains of up to $160 billion per year from market access reform.

Type
Review Article
Information
World Trade Review , Volume 11 , Issue 1 , January 2012 , pp. 1 - 25
Copyright
Copyright © David Laborde, Will Martin, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anderson, J. E. (2009), ‘Consistent trade policy aggregation’, International Economic Review, 50(3): 903–927.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, J. and Neary, P. (2007), ‘Welfare versus market access: the implications of tariff structure for tariff reform’, Journal of International Economics, 71: 187–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, K., Martin, W., and van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2006), ‘Market and welfare implications of Doha reform scenarios’, in Anderson, K. and Martin, W. (eds.), Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda, New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, and Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Bach, C. and Martin, W. (2001), ‘Would the right tariff aggregator for policy analysis please stand up?’, Journal of Policy Modeling, 23(6): 621–635.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baldwin, R. and Evenett, S. (eds.) (2011), Why World Leaders Must Resist the False Promise of a Doha Delay, London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.Google Scholar
Bouët, A. and Laborde, D. (2010), ‘Eight years of Doha trade talks: where do we stand?’, Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, 11(2): 349–370.Google Scholar
Boumellassa, H., Laborde, D., and Mitaritonna, C. (2009), ‘A consistent picture of the protection across the world in 2004: MAcMapHS6 version 2’, IFPRI Discussion Paper 167, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Bureau, J. C. and Gohin, A. (2006), ‘Modelling the EU sugar supply to assess sectoral policy reforms’, European Review of Agricultural Economics, 33(2): 223–247.Google Scholar
Falconer, C. (2008), Communication from the Committee on Agriculture, Special Session, WTO, 30 April, www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/agric_e/chair_texts07_e.htm.Google Scholar
Francois, J. and Martin, W. (2004), ‘Commercial policy, bindings and market access’, European Economic Review, 48(June): 665–679.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Gorter, H. and Kliauga, E. (2006), ‘Reducing tariffs versus expanding tariff rate quotas’, in Anderson, K. and Martin, W. (eds.), Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda, New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, and Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Grossman, G. and Helpman, E. (1994), ‘Protection for sale’, American Economic Review, 84(4): 833–850.Google Scholar
Hertel, T., Martin, W., and Leister, A. (2010), ‘Potential implications of a Special Safeguard Mechanism in the World Trade Organization: the case of wheat’, World Bank Economic Review, 24(2): 330–359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hufbauer, G., Schott, J., and Wong, W. (2010), Figuring Out the Doha Round, Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.Google Scholar
Jean, S., Laborde, D., and Martin, W. (2006), ‘Consequences of alternative formulas for agricultural tariff cuts’, in Anderson, K. and Martin, W. (eds.), Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda, New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, and Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Jean, S., Laborde, D., and Martin, W. (2010a), ‘The political costs of policy reform’, Paper presented at the European Trade Study Group, Lausanne, September.Google Scholar
Jean, S., Laborde, D., and Martin, W. (2010b), ‘Flexibilities in negotiations on non-agricultural products’, Paper presented to the 13th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Penang, Malaysia, GTAP Resource 3305, www.gtap.org.Google Scholar
Jean, S., Laborde, D., and Martin, W. (2011), ‘Formulas and flexibility in trade Negotiations: sensitive agricultural products in the World Trade Organization's Doha Agenda’, World Bank Economic Review, 24(3): 500–519.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Laborde, D., Martin, W., and van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2011), ‘Measuring the benefits of global trade reform with optimal aggregators of distortions’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, forthcoming.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, W. and Mattoo, A. (2011), Unfinished Business? The WTO's Doha Agenda, London: Center for Economic Policy Research, and Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Sharma, R. (2006), ‘Assessment of the Doha Round agricultural tariff cutting formulae’, Paper prepared for the FAO workshop on WTO Rules for Agriculture Compatible with Development, 2–3 February 2006, www.faologe.ch/Tariff-cuts20-20Sharma20-20Jan2006b.pdf.Google Scholar
Schwab, S. (2011), ‘After Doha: Why the negotiations are doomed and what we should do about it?’, Foreign Affairs, 90(3): 104–118.Google Scholar
Vanzetti, D. and Peters, R. (2008), ‘Do sensitive products undermine ambition?’, Mimeo, Australian National University.Google Scholar
van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2006), ‘Estimating the benefits of trade reform: why numbers change’, in Newfarmer, R. (ed.), Trade, Doha and Development: A Window into the Issues, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
WTO (2004), ‘Doha work programme’, WT/L/579, 2 August, World Trade Organization, Geneva.Google Scholar
WTO (2006), ‘Draft possible modalities on agriculture’, TN/AG/W/3, World Trade Organization, Geneva.Google Scholar
WTO (2008a), ‘Revised draft modalities for agriculture’, TN/AG/W/4/Rev.4, 6 December, World Trade Organization, Geneva.Google Scholar
WTO (2008b), ‘Draft modalities for non-agricultural market access’, TN/MA/W/103/Rev.3, 6 December, World Trade Organization, Geneva.Google Scholar
WTO (2011), Cover note by TNC chair, TN/C/13, 21 April.Google Scholar