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Stability and Change in European Electorates
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 18 July 2011
Abstract
Arguing counter to the accepted positions of political sociology, we contend that voters' decisions are best explained by the absence or presence of strong loyalties to political parties rather than by social or economic factors. Hence, in areas where most people have strong party attachments, marked change in the partisan division of the vote occurs only when an exceptionally large number of new voters enters the electoral arena; alterations in the social composition of a party's voters follow changes in the occupation or social categories of those who consistently vote for the party. In presenting this argument, we analyze time-series data for Britain, West Germany, and Sweden which negate the predicted development of “catch-all” electorates, and we test the relative power of party and class variables as predictors of voting behavior in Butler's and Stokes's panel study of British voters between 1963 and 1970.
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References
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7 Ibid., 187.
8 Kirchheimer's example is the Italian Democrazia Cristiana; Ibid., 187–88.
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20 Sarlvick in Rose, (fn. 12), 395.
21 Ibid., 398.
22 In Zuckerman and Lichbach (fn. 13), 121, we present a similar analysis of Norway based on the 1965 election. The results add to the picture of the large Socialist Party's votes coming from its traditional social source, the working class.
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33 Butler and Stokes (fn. 11), 44.
34 Ibid., 319, 323.
35 Ibid., 329.
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46 Abramson (fn. 43).
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49 , Zuckerman, Political Clienteles in Power: Party Factions and Cabinet Coalitions in Italy (Sage Professional Papers in Comparative Politics 1975), 01–055Google Scholar.
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53 The Economist, December 6, 1975, p. 24.
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55 Alt, Sarlvick, and Crewe (fn. 37), cite evidence to support the second position.
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59 Arian, Alan, The Choosing People (Cleveland: Press of Case-Western Reserve University 1973)Google Scholar, chap. 8; Zelniker, Shimshon and Kahan, Michael, “Religion and Nascent Cleavages: The Case of Israel's National Religious Party,” Comparative Politics, ix (October 1976), 21–48CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Sartori (fn. 58), 155.
60 Rose (fn. 12), 514.
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