Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T20:56:39.608Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Redefining the Debate Over Reputation and Credibility in International Security

Promises and Limits of New Scholarship

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 December 2020

Robert Jervis ,
Keren Yarhi-Milo  and
Don Casler
Get access

Abstract

A wave of recent scholarship has breathed new life into the study of reputation and credibility in international politics. In this review article, the authors welcome this development while offering a framework for evaluating collective progress, a series of related critiques, and a set of suggestions for future research. The article details how the books under review represent an important step toward consensus on the importance of reputation in world politics, elucidating scope conditions for when reputational inferences are likely to be most salient. The authors argue that despite the significant accomplishments of recent studies, the scholarly record remains thin on the psychology of the perceiver and is instead focused on situational factors at the expense of dispositional variables and is rather myopically oriented toward reputation for resolve to the exclusion of other important types. Despite its contributions, the new literature still falls short of a full explanation for how actors draw inferences about reputation. These remaining theoretical challenges demand scholarly attention and suggest a role for psychology in filling some of the gaps.

Keywords

credibilityforeign policyleadersperceptionpsychologyreputationsignaling
Type
Review Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 73 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 167 - 203
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2020

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Blankenship, Brian. 2020. “Promises under Pressure: Statements of Reassurance in US Alliances.” International Studies Quarterly. At https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa071.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brutger, Ryan, and Kertzer, Joshua D.. 2018. “A Dispositional Theory of Reputation Costs.” International Organization 72, no. 3: 693–724. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818318000188.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, Daniel L., and Pollack, Kenneth M.. 2001. “Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the Statesman Back In.” International Security 25, no. 4: 107–46. At https://doi.org/10.1162/01622880151091916.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carson, Austin, and Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2017. “Covert Communication: The Intelligibility and Credibility of Signaling in Secret.” Security Studies 26, no. 1: 124–56. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2017.1243921.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clary, Matthew Q. 2020. From Pariah to Phoenix: Improving a National Reputation from the Ashes of the Past. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Crescenzi, Mark J. C. 2007. “Reputation and Interstate Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 51, no. 2: 382–96. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00257.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crescenzi, Mark J. C. 2018. Of Friends and Foes: Reputation and Learning in International Politics. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dafoe, Allan, Jonathan, Renshon, and Paul, Huth. 2014. “Reputation and Status as Motives for War.” Annual Review of Political Science 17: 371–93. At https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-071112-213421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, James W. 2000. Threats and Promises: The Pursuit of International Influence. Baltimore, Md: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Davis, James W., ed. 2013. Psychology, Strategy and Conflict: Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations. New York, N.Y.: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davis, James W., and Rose, McDermott. 2020. “The Past, Present and Future of Behavioral IR.” International Organization: 1–31. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818320000272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, George W., and Jones, Michael A.. 2002. “Reputation, Compliance, and International Law.” Journal of Legal Studies 31, no. S1: S95–114. At https://doi.org/10.1086/340405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elster, Jon. 1983. Sour Grapes: Studies in Subversion of Rationality. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88, no. 3: 577–92. At https://doi.org/10.2307/2944796.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M. 2008. “The Costs of Reneging: Reputation and Alliance Formation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 52, no. 3: 426–54. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002707310003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Henk E., Kristian Skrede, Gleditsch, and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2009. “Introducing Archigos: A Dataset of Political Leaders.” Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 2: 269–83. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343308100719.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goffman, Erving. 1959. The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life. Garden City, N.Y.: Doubleday & Co.Google Scholar
Gray, Julia, and Hicks, Raymond P.. 2014. “Reputations, Perceptions, and International Economic Agreements.” International Interactions 40, no. 3: 325–49. At https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2014.899227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra, and Smith, Alastair. 2002. “Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 2: 175–200. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046002001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., Stephan, Haggard, Lake, David A., and Victor, David G.. 2017. “The Behavioral Revolution and International Relations.” International Organization 71, no. S1: S1-S31. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818316000400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harvey, Frank P., and John, Mitton. 2016. Fighting for Credibility: US Reputation and International Politics. Toronto, Canada: University of Toronto Press.Google Scholar
Hatemi, Peter K., and Rose, McDermott. 2011. Man Is by Nature a Political Animal: Evolution, Biology, and Politics. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heilman, Madeline E. 1974. “Threats and Promises: Reputational Consequences and Transfer of Credibility.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 10, no. 4: 310–24. At https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(74)90028-6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henry, Iain D. 2020. “What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence.” International Security 44, no. 4: 45–83. At https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holmes, Marcus. 2018. Face-to-Face Diplomacy: Social Neuroscience and International Relations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopf, Ted. 1994. Peripheral Visions: Deterrence Theory and American Foreign Policy in the Third World, 1965–1990. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Stam, Allan C., and Ellis, Cali M.. 2015. Why Leaders Fight. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1997. “Reputations and Deterrence: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment.” Security Studies 7, no. 1: 72–99. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419708429334.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, Van. 2016. Rival Reputations: Coercion and Credibility in US-North Korea Relations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Janis, Irving L. 1972. Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. Boston, Mass.: Houghton Mifflin.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1970. The Logic of Images in International Relations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1998. System Effects: Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 2013. “Do Leaders Matter and How Would We Know?” Security Studies 22, no. 2: 153–79. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2013.786909.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 2017. How Statesmen Think: The Psychology of International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert, and Snyder, Jack L.. 1991. Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Joll, James. 1968. 1914: The Unspoken Assumptions: An Inaugural Lecture Delivered 25 April 1968. London, UK: London School of Economics and Political Science and Weidenfeld & Nicolson.Google Scholar
Kagan, Donald. 1995. On the Origins of War: And the Preservation of Peace. New York, N.Y.: Anchor Books.Google Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D. 2016. Resolve in International Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D. Forthcoming. “Re-Assessing Elite-Public Gaps in Political Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science. At https://people.fas.harvard.edu/~jkertzer/Research_files/Elite-Public-Gaps-Web.pdf, accessed October 28, 2020.Google Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., Rathbun, Brian C., and Srinivasan Rathbun, Nina. 2020. “The Price of Peace: Motivated Reasoning and Costly Signaling in International Relations.” International Organization 74, no. 1: 95–118. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818319000328.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., Jonathan, Renshon, and Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2019. “How Do Observers Assess Resolve?” British Journal of Political Science: 1–23. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000595.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., and Dustin, Tingley. 2018. “Political Psychology in International Relations: Beyond the Paradigms.” Annual Review of Political Science 21: 319–39. At https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041916-020042.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khong, Yuen Foong. 1992. Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuzmanovic, Bojana, and Rigoux, Lionel. 2017. “Valence-Dependent Belief Updating: Computational Validation.” Frontiers in Psychology 8. At https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01087.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lamb, Christopher J. 2018. “The Mayaguez Crisis: Correcting 30 Years of Scholarship.” Political Science Quarterly 133, no. 1: 35–76. At https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12736.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Larson, Deborah Welch, and Shevchenko, Alexei. 2019. Quest for Status: Chinese and Russian Foreign Policy. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Lebovic, James H., and Erik, Voeten. 2009. “The Cost of Shame: International Organizations and Foreign Aid in the Punishing of Human Rights Violators.” Journal of Peace Research 46, no. 1: 79–97. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/27640800.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lebow, Richard Ned. 1981. Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lebow, Richard Ned. 2008. A Cultural Theory of International Relations. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levendusky, Matthew S., and Horowitz, Michael C.. 2012. “When Backing Down Is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs.” Journal of Politics 74, no. 2: 323–38. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S002238161100154X.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levy, Jack S., McKoy, Michael K., Paul, Poast, and Wallace, Geoffrey P. R.. 2015. “Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory.” American Journal of Political Science 59, no. 4: 988–1001. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12197.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lin-Greenberg, Erik. 2019. “Backing Up, Not Backing down: Mitigating Audience Costs through Policy Substitution.” Journal of Peace Research 56, no. 4: 559–74. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343319832641.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Logevall, Fredrik. 1999. Choosing War: The Lost Chance for Peace and the Escalation of War in Vietnam. Berkeley, Calif.: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupton, Danielle L. 2020. Reputation for Resolve: How Leaders Signal Determination in International Politics. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marinov, Nikolay. 2005. “Do Economic Sanctions Destabilize Country Leaders?” American Journal of Political Science 49, no. 3: 564–76. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2005.00142.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markwica, Robin. 2018. Emotional Choices: How the Logic of Affect Shapes Coercive Diplomacy. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGillivray, Fiona, and Stam, Allan C.. 2004. “Political Institutions, Coercive Diplomacy, and the Duration of Economic Sanctions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 2: 154–72. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703262858.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McManus, Roseanne W. 2017. Statements of Resolve: Achieving Coercive Credibility in International Conflict. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McManus, Roseanne W. 2019. “Revisiting the Madman Theory: Evaluating the Impact of Different Forms of Perceived Madness in Coercive Bargaining.” Security Studies 28, no. 5: 976–1009. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2019.1662482.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mearsheimer, John J. 2011. Why Leaders Lie: The Truth About Lying in International Politics. New York, N.Y.: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 1996. Reputation and International Politics. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 2010. “Emotional Beliefs.” International Organization 64, no. 1: 1–31. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818309990221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 2013a. “Emotion and Strategy in the Korean War.” International Organization 67, no. 2: 221–52. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818313000015.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 2013b. “Rational Signaling Revisited.” In Davis, James W., ed., Psychology, Strategy and Conflict: Perceptions of Insecurity in International Relations. New York, N.Y.: Routledge: 64–81.Google Scholar
Miller, Gregory D. 2012. The Shadow of the Past: Reputation and Military Alliances Before the First World War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mintz, Alex. 2004. “How Do Leaders Make Decisions? A Poliheuristic Perspective.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 1: 3–13. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703261056.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
O’Neill, Barry. 1999. Honor, Symbols, and War. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paul, T. V., Deborah Welch, Larson, and Wohlforth, William C.. 2014. Status in World Politics. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peterson, Timothy M. 2013. “Sending a Message: The Reputation Effect of US Sanction Threat Behavior.” International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 4: 672–82. At https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12017.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prakash, Aseem, and Potoski, Matthew. 2006. “Racing to the Bottom? Trade, Environmental Governance, and ISO 14001.” American Journal of Political Science 50, no. 2: 350–64. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/3694277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Press, Daryl Grayson. 2005. Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 1988. “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of TwoLevel Games.” International Organization 42, no. 3: 427–60. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300027697.Google Scholar
Renshon, Jonathan. 2017. Fighting for Status: Hierarchy and Conflict in World Politics. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Renshon, Jonathan, Allan, Dafoe, and Paul, Huth. 2018. “Leader Influence and Reputation Formation in World Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 62, no. 2: 325–39. At https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12335.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R., and Brian, Knutson. 2015. “Decision Making in the Ageing Brain: Changes in Affective and Motivational Circuits.” Nature Reviews Neuroscience 16: 278–89. At https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn3917.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Sartori, Anne E. 2002. “The Might of the Pen: A Reputational Theory of Communication in International Disputes.” International Organization 56, no. 1: 121–49. At https://doi.org/10.1162/002081802753485151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sartori, Anne E. 2005. Deterrence by Diplomacy. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schramm, Madison, and Stark, Alexandra. 2020. “Peacemakers or Iron Ladies? A Cross-National Study of Gender and International Conflict.” Security Studies 29, no. 3: 515–45. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2020.1763450.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schwartz, Joshua A., and Blair, Christopher W.. 2020. “Do Women Make More Credible Threats? Gender Stereotypes, Audience Costs, and Crisis Bargaining.” International Organization: 1–24. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818320000223.Google Scholar
Sharot, Tali, and Garrett, Neil. 2016. “Forming Beliefs: Why Valence Matters.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 20, no. 1: 25–33. At https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2015.11.002.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Shultz, George P. 1996. Turmoil and Triumph: Diplomacy, Power, and the Victory of the American Deal. New York, N.Y.: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Snyder, Glenn Herald, and Diesing, Paul. 1977. Conflict among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Snyder, Jack. 2020. “Backlash against Human Rights Shaming: Emotions in Groups.” International Theory 12, no. 1: 109–32. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S1752971919000216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sullivan, Andy. 2013. “Most in U.S. Still Oppose Syria Strike as Obama Seeks Action.” Reuters, August 30, 2013. At https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-usa-poll-idUSBRE97T0UO20130830, accessed October 28, 2020.Google Scholar
Tang, Shiping. 2005. “Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict.” Security Studies 14, no. 1: 34–62. At https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410591001474.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007a. “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 61, no. 4: 821–40. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/4498169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007b. Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt across Three Centuries. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2009. Reputation and Civil War: Why Separatist Conflicts Are So Violent. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weeks, Jessica L. 2008. “Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve.” International Organization 62, no. 1: 35–64. At https://www.jstor.org/stable/40071874.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weisiger, Alex, and Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2015. “Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics.” International Organization 69, no. 2: 473–95. At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818314000393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wheeler, Nicholas J. 2018. Trusting Enemies: Interpersonal Relationships in International Conflict. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolford, Scott. 2007. “The Turnover Trap: New Leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 51, no. 4: 772–88. At https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00280.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wu, Cathy Xuanxuan, and Wolford, Scott. 2018. “Leaders, States, and Reputations.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no. 10: 2087–117. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718786001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2014. Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2018. Who Fights for Reputation: The Psychology of Leaders in International Conflict. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren, Kertzer, Joshua D., and Jonathan, Renshon. 2018. “Tying Hands, Sinking Costs, and Leader Attributes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, no. 10: 2150–79. At https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002718785693.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhang, Ketian. 2019. “Cautious Bully: Reputation, Resolve, and Beijing’s Use of Coercion in the South China Sea.” International Security 44, no. 1: 117–59. At https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar