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Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 13 June 2011
Abstract
The paper discusses the role of public opinion in the foreign policy-making process of liberal democracies. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, public opinion matters. However, the impact of public opinion is determined not so much by the specific issues involved or by the particular pattern of public attitudes as by the domestic structure and the coalition-building processes among the elites in the respective country. The paper analyzes the public impact on the foreign policy-making process in four liberal democracies with distinct domestic structures: the United States, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan. Under the same international conditions and despite similar patterns of public attitudes, variances in foreign policy outcomes nevertheless occur; these have to be explained by differences in political institutions, policy networks, and societal structures. Thus, the four countries responded differently to Soviet policies during the 1980s despite more or less comparable trends in mass public opinion.
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References
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26 In particular, the proportionate vote combined with the provision that a party has to gain at least 5% of the votes nationwide in order to be represented in the Parliament.
27 Thus, unlike the U.S. case, where hawks and doves are usually represented along bureaucratic roles, the party affiliation of the minister determines the policy direction of the Foreign Office as compared with that of the Ministry of Defense.
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44 The following data are taken from a variety of opinion polls. Although I have tried to use as many comparable data as possible, the wording of questions sometimes differed considerably from country to country. As a result, a note of caution is appropriate regarding the interpretation of these data. For example, I will refrain from analyzing minor changes in percentage. Also, I can only present here data on the aggregate level of overall mass public opinion. For comprehensive studies with breakdowns according to age, education, and political orientation, see Eichenberg (fn. 1); and Wittkopf (fn. 1).
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51 Data in Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth, “Wenn das Gefiihl der Bedrohung schwindet,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, July 22, 1988.Google Scholar In comparison, about 80 percent of the American public rejected such unilateral steps during the 1980s; data according to Roper and other U.S. polls, on file at the Yale Public Opinion Research Project, New Haven.
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54 This consideration would also explain why Nincic's “politics of opposites” (fn. 47, 1988) was not observable in Western Europe and Japan. The model is based on a pattern of attitudes in which the perception of Soviet foreign policy still dominates the preferences for specific security policies.
55 See Page and Shapiro (fn. 3). Note, however, that the study does not prove the bottom-up model. It correlates public opinion data with policy outcomes and does not control for the impact of elite opinion. It would be consistent with the data to assume, for example, that elite opinion changed first and then affected the general public, which in turn led to policy changes.
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60 This account is based largely on newspaper articles. See, e.g., “Cheney Remarks on Soviet Future Ruffle the White House's Feathers,” New York Times, may 1, 1989; “Bush Asks an End to Divided Europe,” New York Times, June 1, 1989; and “Bush Policy Makers Reach Uneasy Balance on an Approach to the Soviets,” New York Times, July 2, 1989.
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65 In this particular case, Mitterrand was apparently influenced by public opinion not only in France but also in West Germany and by the fear that rejection of zero INF would lead to German neutralism. Cf. Howorth, Jolyon, “Consensus and Mythology: Security Alternatives in Post-Gaullist France,” in Aldrich and Connell (fn. 21), 16–34Google Scholar; and LePrestre (fn. 38).
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68 “Independence,” for example, was understood in an anti-Soviet sense by the French conservatives, in an anti-American way by the Left, and in a neutralist sense by nationalists at both ends of the political spectrum.
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75 In March 1983, 72% of Japanese were worried about Nakasone's defense policy; 48% disagreed with his remarks about the “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” While public opposition to Nakasone's policies declined somewhat over the years, he was nevertheless unable to change the prevailing trends. For data, see Hastings, and Hastings, , eds., Index to International Public Opinion, 1982–1983 (New York: Greenwood, 1984), 316.Google Scholar For analyses of Japanese foreign policies during the 1980s, see, e.g., Drifte (fn. 23); idem, Japan's Rise to International Responsibilities (London: Athlone Press, 1990); and Mclntosh, Malcolm, Japan Re-Armed (London: Frances Pinter, 1986).Google Scholar
76 See details in Drifte, (fn. 75, 1990), 48–58.Google Scholar
77 I thank Nobuo Okawara for pointing this out to me. See also Calder (fn. 42), 463. The most recent domestic turmoil in Japan on how to deal with the crisis and the war in the Persian Gulf confirms the analysis that mass public opinion severely contrains the country's ruling conservative coalition.
78 This proved to be a major limitation of this study, particularly in the French case. The prevailing realist paradigm in international relations and the focus of most studies on elites do not encourage scholars to trace the impact of public opinion and societal actors on decisions in detail.
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