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Peking's Military Calculus*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 July 2011

Davis B. Bobrow
Davis B. Bobrow
Affiliation:
Princeton University
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Extract

Chinese Communist military policy significantly affects our preparations for war and hopes for peace. However, we have few public studies of Chinese military policy and the reasoning on which it rests.1 This article tries to set forth the calculus or rationale which Peking employs to select military strategy and tactics. In other words, it makes no attempt to attack or defend Chinese military policy or to appraise that policy's specific strengths and weaknesses. It does try to locate the important factors that operate in the minds of Chinese decision-makers and Peking's perception of the consequences of different tactical choices. When we say that the Chinese have a calculus for military policy, we do not mean to imply that it works well or badly. We do imply that the Chinese have a military calculus which imposes a predictable pattern on their military policy. Obviously, an identical military calculus does not operate in the minds of all Chinese leaders. Accordingly, “Peking thinks” is shorthand for the “averaged” views that can be induced from the public record of Chinese words and acts.

Type
Research Article
Information
World Politics , Volume 16 , Issue 2 , January 1964 , pp. 287 - 301
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 1964

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References

1 The most relevant are: Barnett, A. Doak, “The Inclusion of Communist China in an Arms Control Program,” Daedalus, Vol. 89 (Fall 1960), 831–45Google Scholar; Barnett, Robert W., Quemoy: The Use and Consequence of Nuclear Deterrence (Cambridge, Mass., 1960)Google Scholar; Hsieh, Alice Langley, The Chinese Genie: Peking's Role in the Nuclear Test Ban Negotiations (Santa Monica 1960)Google Scholar, and Communist China's Strategy in the Nuclear Era (Englewood Cliffs 1960)Google Scholar; Tsou, Tang, “Mao's Limited War in the Taiwan Strait,” Orbis, III (Fall 1959), 332–50Google Scholar; Whiting, Allen S., China Crosses the Yalu (New York 1960)Google Scholar; Zagoria, Donald S., The Sino-Soviet Conflict, 1956–1961 (Princeton 1962)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

2 This article is based on Chinese Communist mass media items. The following sources were used: For the period from lanuary 1960 through June 1962, Current Background (hereafter cited as CB), Survey of the China Mainland Press (hereafter cited as SCMP), Extracts from China Mainland Magazines, later changed to Selections from China Mainland Magazines (hereafter cited as ECMM and SCMM). These translations are produced by the U.S. Consulate-General, Hong Kong. Also consulted for the same period were the mainland press translations of the U.S. Joint Publications Research Service of Washington (hereafter cited as JPRS). Peking Review (hereafter cited as PR), an English-language publication for overseas consumption, was used for the period from January 1960 through November 1962. The methodology applied to these materials is discussed in Zagoria, 24–35; and Rush, Myron, “Esoteric Communication in Soviet Politics,” World Politics, XI (July 1959), 614–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 By “arms control” I mean: “Adjustments in military postures and doctrines that induce reciprocal adjustments by a potential opponent … reduce the danger of a war that neither side wants, or contain its violence, or otherwise serve the security of the nation.”—Schelling, Thomas C. and Halperin, Morton H., Strategy and Arms Control (New York 1961), 143Google Scholar.

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18 “Excellent Situation for Peace Struggle,” 4.

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22 Jen Ku-ping, 15.

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24 “JMJP Editorial on Korea's Peaceful Unification,” NCNA-English Peking (June 25, 1961), in SCMP, No. 2529 (1961), 41Google Scholar; “Chinese Delegate Speaks at World Peace Council Bureau Meeting,” NCNA-English Peking (July 14, 1960), in SCMP, No. 2300 (1960), 26Google Scholar.

25 “JMJP—A Summary of the First Six Months of the Kennedy Administration,” NCNA-English Peking (August 2, 1961), in SCMP, No. 2555 (1961), 35Google Scholar; Mao Tun, 9.

26 K'e-han, Ch'en, “Overcoming Difficulties, Winning Victories—On First Reading of the Fourth Volume of Selected Works of Mao Tse-tung,” Chung-kuo Ch'ing-nien, No. 21 (1960)Google Scholar, in SCMM, No. 240 (1960), 10Google Scholar.

27 Ting, Hsin, “Adventuresome and Weak Character of the Kennedy Administration,” Chung-kuo Ch'ing-nien, No. 17 (1961)Google Scholar, in SCMM, No. 285 (1961), 1–2Google Scholar.

28 See Barnett, Robert W.; Hsieh, ; Tsou, Tang; Zagoria, ; and Thomas, John R., “Soviet Behavior in the Quemoy Crisis,” Orbis, VI (Spring 1962), 38–64Google Scholar.

29 Kai-lung, Liao, “Dare to Carry out Revolution, Dare to Win Victory—Some Notes on the Study of the Fourth Volume of the Selected Works of Mao Tse-tung,” Chungkuo Ch'ing-nien, No. 19 (1960)Google Scholar, in SCMM, No. 235 (1960), 13Google Scholar; Sung Tu, 1; Ke, Fan, “The Orientation of Political Work for the Army,” Jen-min Jih-pao (July 28, 1961), in SCMP, No. 2556 (1962), 5Google Scholar.

30 Fu Chung, 19.

31 Mao is quoted in Tang Tsou, 333.

32 Brig. Gen. Thompson, W. F. K., “When Two Empires Meet,” Survival, V (March-April 1963), 79–80Google Scholar.

33 Fu Chung, 31.

34 Kai-lung, Liao, in JPRS, No. 6743 (1961), 41Google Scholar.

35 Sung Tu, 6.

36 Ch'in, Tsui, Wen-jui, T'an, “Comment on the Present Foreign Policy of the United States,” Shih-chieh Chih-shih, No. 6 (1960)Google Scholar, in SCMM, No. 213 (1960), 11Google Scholar; Changsheng, Liu, “On the Question of War and Peace,” PR, III (April 26, 1960), 14Google Scholar. The Chinese are aware that the Soviets also offer such a cannonball in connection with their disarmament and peaceful coexistence proposals. Liu rejects the very aid to the underdeveloped nations that the Soviets propose. For the Soviet inducement, see G. Mirsky and L. Stepanov, Asia and Africa: A New Era (Moscow, n.d.).

37 Mao is quoted in Tang Tsou, 333.

38 Ming-yang, Chang, “Use Two Tactics of Revolution to Oppose Two Tactics of Counter-Revolution—Notes on Study of the Selected Works of Mao Tse-tung, Vol. IV,” Shih-chieh Chih-shih, No. 20 (1960)Google Scholar, in SCMM No. 239 (1960), 35Google Scholar.

39 Kang, Huang, “A Few Things of Kennedy,” Hung Ch'i, No. 13 (1961)Google Scholar, in SCMM, No. 271 (1961), 5Google Scholar; Ya-ting, Ch'en, “A Condemnation of Bogus Socialist Literature,” Kuang-ming Jih-pao (August 6, 1960), in JPRS, No. 6660 (1961), 43Google Scholar.

40 Fu Chung, 25.

41 The interpretation of revolutionary antecedents is drawn from Kan-Chih, Ho, A History of the Modern Chinese Revolution (Peking 1960)Google Scholar; Shih, Wang, Ch'iao, Wang, Ch'i-ping, Ma, and Ling, Chang, A Brief History of the Chinese Communist Party (Shanghai 1958)Google Scholar, in JPRS, No. 8756 (1961)Google Scholar; Hua, Hsiao, “The Chinese Revolution and Armed Struggle,” Hung Ch'i, No. 16 (1962)Google Scholar, in PR, V (August 10 and 17, 1962), 6–9, 14–16Google Scholar.

42 Mao is quoted in Chiu, Sin-ming, “Some Basic Conceptions and Rules of Conduct of Chinese Communism,” Studies in Chinese Communism Series, IV (January 1955), 10Google Scholar.

43 Ho Kan-chih, 199.

44 Hsiao Hua, 15.

45 Liao Kai-lung; Piao, Lin, “The Victory of the Chinese People's Revolutionary War Is a Victory of the Thought of Mao Tse-tung,” Hung Ch'i, No. 19 (1960)Google Scholar, in SCMM, No. 231 (1960), 10Google Scholar.

46 Kuo Mu-jo, speaking to the International Students' Union Meeting on September 15, 1958, as quoted in Robert W. Barnett, 40.

47 Chou En-lai, as quoted by Snow, Edgar in “Red China's Leaders Talk Peace, on Their Terms,” Look, XXV (January 1961), 93Google Scholar.

48 Fu Chung, 8.

49 Ibid.

50 Chang Ming-yang, 35; Liao Kai-lung, 11.