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³ Exceptions include Lauth, Hans-Joachim, “Informal Institutions and Democracy,” Democratization 7 (Winter 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Greif, Avner, “Self-Enforcing Political Systems and Economic Growth: Late Medieval Genoa,” in Bates, Robert, Greif, Avner, Levin, Margaret, and Rosenthal, Jean-Laurent, Analytic Narratives (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998)Google Scholar.

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⁸ Migdal, Joel, State in Society: Studying How States and Societies Transform and Constitute OneAnother (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 50CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁹ I look at effect on the “political trajectory” (not a short-term regime outcome). Both regime type and regime durability are part of the political trajectory, and the two are closely interconnected. See also Bunce, Valerie, Subversive Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), 5–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁰ The first three case studies are based on primary research of over three years of field work; the latter two are based on secondary research supplemented by a number of in-country author interviews.

¹¹ On the Soviet Union as a colonial/imperial state, see Beissinger, Mark and Young, Crawford, Beyond State Crisis? Postcolonial Africa and Post-Soviet Eurasia in Comparative Perspective (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2002)Google Scholar; and Laitin, David, Identity in Formation (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1998)Google Scholar.

¹² Noted exceptions include O'Donnell (fn. 7); Verdery, Katherine and Buroway, Michael, eds., Uncertain Transition (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 1999)Google Scholar.

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¹⁵ Przeworski, Adam, Democracy and the Market (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Mainwaring, Scott and Scully, Timothy, eds., Building Democratic Institutions (Stanford, Calif: Stanford University Press, 1995)Google Scholar; Linz, Juan and Stepan, Alfred, Problems ofDemocratic Transition and Consolidation (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996)Google Scholar.

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¹⁷ See, for example, Collier, Ruth Berins, Paths towards Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; David Collier and Ruth Collier, Berins, Shaping the PoliticalArena (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991)Google Scholar.

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¹⁹ Helmke and Levitsky, “Informal Institutions and Comparative Politics: A Research Agenda,” Working Paper no. 307 (Notre Dame: Kellogg Institute, September 2003).

²⁰ Lauth (fn. 3) blurs informal institutions and organizations. Nor does he provide empirical analysis.

²¹ See Fortes, M. and Evans-Pritchard, E. E., African Political Systems (London: Oxford University Press, 1940)Google Scholar.

²² See Legum, Colin, “The Dangers of Independence,” Transition 6–7 (October 1962)Google Scholar; Apter, David, Ghana in Transition (New York: Antheneum Publishers, 1963)Google Scholar; Zolberg, Aristide, “The Structure of Political Conflict in the New States of Tropical Africa,” American Political Science Review 62 (March 1968)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Cohen, Abner, Custom and Politics in Urban Africa (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1969)Google Scholar.

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²⁵ , Coleman and , Halisi, “American Political Science and Tropical Africa,” African Studies Review 24 (September-December 1983), 220–21Google Scholar.

²⁶ Examples include Price, Robert, Society and Bureaucracy in Contemporary Ghana (Berkeley: University of California, 1975)Google Scholar; Hyden, Goran, Beyond Ujaama in Tanzania: Underdevelopment and an Uncap-tured Peasantry (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980)Google Scholar; and Scott, James C., The Moral Economy of the Peasant: Rebellion and Subsistence in Southeast Asia (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1976)Google Scholar.

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²⁹ Ibid., 2.

³⁰ , Herbst, States and Power in Africa (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999)Google Scholar. See also Beissinger and Young (fn. 11).

³¹ , Scott, Seeing Like a State (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1999)Google Scholar.

³² Numerous scholars have looked at the role of clientelism in inhibiting democratic consolidation. See, for example, Frances Hagopian, “Traditional Politics against State Transformation in Brazil,” in Migdal, Kohli, and Shue (fn. 27); O'Donnell (fn. 7).

³³ This definition draws on North (fn. 2), 3–6; Knight (fn. 2), 11; and Helmke and Levitsky (fn. 19), 36–39.

³⁴ North (fn. 2), 4–5.

³⁵ See Shryock, Andrew, Nationalism and the Genealogical Imagination (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1997)Google Scholar, 40–41, 318; Tapper, Richard, “Anthropologists, Historians, and Tribespeople on Tribe and State Formation in the Middle East,” in Khoury, Philip and Kostiner, Joseph, eds., Tribes and State Formation in the Middle East (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990), 50–51Google Scholar; and Lindholm, Charles, “Kinship Structure and Political Authority: The Middle East and Central Asia,” Comparative Studies in Society and History 28 (April 1986)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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³⁷ Many anthropologists and historians argue that “fictive kinship”—ties through marriage, family friends, religious circles, and close business or political relations—is an essential element of kinship and clan. Marriage and political/business ties often overlapped, thus extending the family circle. See Shryock (fh. 35), 318; Humphrey and Sneath (fn. 36); Khoury and Kostiner (fn. 35); and Lindholm (fn. 35).

³⁸ On the “strong ties” of kinship, see Gibson, James, “Social Networks, Civil Society, and the Prospects for Consolidating Russia's Democratic Transition,” American Journal of Political Science 45 (January 2001), 53CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Granovetter, Mark, “The Strength of Weak Ties,” American Journal of Sociology 78 (May 1973), 1361CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Padgett, John and Ansell, Christopher, “Robust Action and the Rise of the Medici, 1400–1434,” American Journal of Sociology 98 (May 1993), 1267CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁴² On clan and tribal support for King Hussein of Jordan, see Shryock (fn. 35), 318–20.

⁴³ Gibson (fn. 38), 52–53.

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⁴⁶ Kornai, Janos, The Socialist System (Cambridge: Harvard: Harvard University Press, 1991)Google Scholar. In significant ways the communist/socialist economy was characterized by shortages, barter, and transaction problems of the premodern economy.

⁴⁷ Shryock (fn. 35); Padgett and Ansell (fn. 38).

⁴⁸ See Knight (fn. 2) on self-enforcement mechanisms and informal institutions.

⁴⁹ Roniger, Luis and Gunes-Ayata, Ayse, Democracy, Clientelism, and Civil Society (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1994), 3–4Google Scholar, 11.

⁵⁰ Pattioni, Simona, ed., Clientelism, Interests and Democratic Representation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press: 2001), 2–4CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See fnn. 49, 32.

⁵¹ Rose-Ackerman, Susan, Corruption and Government: Causes, Consequences, and Reform (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Pattioni (fn. 50); Hutchcroft, Paul, Booty Capitalism: The Politics of Banking in the Philippines (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1997)Google Scholar.

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⁵³ Hoffman, David, The Oligarchs: Wealth and Power in the New Russia (New York: Public Affairs, 2002)Google Scholar; Chubb, Judith, The Mafia and Politics: The Italian State under Siege (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989)Google Scholar.

⁵⁴ Jones Luong, for example, assumes that by creating new administrative territories the Soviets eliminated or made irrelevant pre-Soviet identities. See Luong, Pauline Jones, Institutional Change and Political Continuity in Post-Soviet Central Asia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar, 17, 52–53. This view neglects the more pervasive social identities underlying regions, even as regional boundaries change.

⁵⁵ Anderson, Benedict, Imagined Communities (London: Verso, 1991)Google Scholar; and Laitin (fn. 11).

⁵⁶ Suny, Ronald, The Revenge of the Past (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1993)Google Scholar; Tishkov, Valery, The Mind Aflame (Oslo: PRIO, 1997)Google Scholar; and Martin, Terry, The Affirmative Action Empire (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press 2001)Google Scholar.

⁵⁷ Anderson (fn. 55), 5–7.

⁵⁸ Khoury and Kostiner (fn. 35), 4–5; and Albert Hourani, “Tribes and States in Islamic History,” in Khoury and Kostiner (fn. 35), 303–4. “Tapper (fn. 35), 52–53.

⁶⁰ In much of Asia and the Middle East, this subdivision of ethnic group into tribe and then clan (and eventually the nuclear family) is common. See Khoury and Kostiner (fn. 35). However, the terminology of ethnicity, tribe, and clan varies significantly across Africa. See Coleman (fn. 4,1994). The terms are often used interchangeably, in part because there are numerous, distinct ethnolinguistic groups that are often smaller in size. Those African cases most similar to the Asian ones are the Sudan and Somalia, where subethnic clans and tribes are operative units. See Laitin, David and Samatar, Said, Nation in Search of a State (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1986)Google Scholar.

⁶¹ Most work assumes informal institutions emerge in response to the state.

⁶² Weber, Max, The Theory ofSocial and Economic Organization (New York: Oxford University Press, 1947)Google Scholar.

⁶³ Ibid.

⁶⁴ Alec Nove and J. A. Newth typify the view that the Soviets successfully modernized Central Asia; Nove Newth, and, The Soviet Middle East: A Communist Model for Development (New York: Praeger, 1967)Google Scholar. Jones Luong has a similar view (fn. 54).

⁶⁵ Khoury and Kostiner (fn. 35), 16–19.

⁶⁶ Contrast the timing, mode, and pattern of state formation in these regions with that of Western Europe. See Tilly, Charles, Coercion, Capital, and European States, 990–1990 (Cambridge: Blackwell, 1990)Google Scholar; Young, Crawford, The African State in Comparative Perspective (New Haven: Yale University Press: 1994)Google Scholar; Huntington (fn. 5); and Beissinger and Young (fn. 11). The simultaneous growth of capitalism in Western Europe is also unparalleled in Central Asia.

⁶⁷ Allworth, Edward, ed., Central Asia: 130 Years of Russian Domination (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1994)Google Scholar; Brower, Daniel and Lazzerini, Edward, Russia's Orient: Imperial Borderlands and Peoples, 1700–1917 (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1997)Google Scholar; and Herbst (fn. 30).

⁶⁸ Scott (fn. 31); and Hyden (fn. 26). On the limits of colonial states, see Herbst (fn. 30), 76–96.

⁶⁹ Humphrey and Sneath (fn. 36) note that in rare cases, such as Inner Mongolia, the state succeeded in formalizing lists of clans and their members, thereby disempowering them (pp. 26–27).

⁷⁰ On social resistance, see fnn. 26, 27.

⁷¹ Caste-state relations in India in the 1960s suggest this logic. See Rudolph and Rudolph (fn. 4).

⁷² Kornai (fn. 46). See also Ouchi, William, “Markets, Bureaucracies and Clans,” Administrative Science Quarterly 25 (March 1980)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Williamson, Oliver, The Economic Institutions of Capitalism (New York: Free Press, 1985)Google Scholar.

⁷³ Beissinger and Young (fn. 11).

⁷⁴ O'Donnell and Schmitter (fn. 13); Karl and Schmitter (fn. 13); Higley and Gunther (fn. 16).

⁷⁵ Central Asia is similar to sub-Saharan Africa in this way and distinct from East Asia or Latin America.

⁷⁶ Khalid, Adeeb, The Politics of Muslim Cultural Reform (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1998), 189–90Google Scholar; Koichuev, T., Mokrynin, V., and Ploskikh, V., Kyrgyzy, I ikh predki (The Kyrgyz and their ancestors) (Bishkek: Glav. Red. Kyrgyzskoi Entsiklopedii, 1994)Google Scholar; and V.V. Bartol'd, Istoriia kul'turnoi zhizni Turkestana (History of cultural life of Turkestan), in , Bartol'd, Sochineniia (Works) (Moscow: Itd. Vostochnoi Literatury, 1963)Google Scholar, vol. 2/i.

⁷⁷ Brower and Lazzerini (fn. 67); Khalid (fn. 76), chap. 2; and Bartol'd (fn. 76).

⁷⁸ Brower and Lazzerini (fn. 67).

⁷⁹ Hirsch, Francine, “Empire of Nations: Colonial Technologies and the Meaning of the Soviet Union” (Ph.D. diss., Princeton University, 1998)Google Scholar, chap. 1.

⁸⁰ Fierman, William, ed., Soviet Central Asia: The Failed Transformation (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1991), 18–33Google Scholar.

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⁸³ Martin (fn. 56).

⁸⁴ Suny (fn. 56), 113–18; and Hirsch (fn. 79), chaps. 3, 5.

⁸⁵ See Roy, Olivier, The New Central Asia (New York: New York University Press, 2000)Google Scholar, chap. 6; and Collins (fn. 14, 1999), chaps. 4, 8.

⁸⁶ Massell, Gregory, The Surrogate Proletariat (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1974)Google Scholar, chap. 1, 386–89.

⁸⁷ Bunce, Valerie, “The Political Economy of the Brezhnev Era: The Rise and Fall of Corporatism,” British Journal of Political Science 13 (April 1983), 135CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Suny (fn. 56), 118–20.

⁸⁸ On similar phenomena in Africa, see Naomi Chazan, “Engaging the State: Associational Life in Sub-Saharan Africa,” in Migdal, Kohli, and Shue (fn. 27), 261–63.

⁸⁹ Author interview with local clan elder, Andijan province, Uzbekistan, August 2000.

⁹⁰ Author interview with son of former Communist Party apparatchik and powerful clan leader, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, May 1997.

⁹¹ Ligachev, Yegor, Inside Gorbachev's Kremlin (New York: Pantheon, 1993), 204–53Google Scholar.

⁹² Author interviews with Oleg Grinevskii, former aide to Khrushchev and Brezhnev in the Org-Otdel, Stanford, May 1999, and with former aide to Gorbachev, Moscow, June 2000. See also Iliukhin, V., Oborotni: Kakbylo nadumano “Uzbeks/we delo” (Reversals: How the Uzbek affair was invented) (Tashkent, 1993)Google Scholar.

⁹³ Donald Carlisle, “Power and Politics in Soviet Uzbekistan: From Stalin to Gorbachev,” in Fierman (fn. 80), 112–16.

⁹⁴ Usubaliev, T. U., Kleveshchite, Kleveshchite (Slander, slander) (Bishkek: Uchkun, 1995)Google Scholar.

⁹⁵ Author interviews with journalists in Tashkent, Bishkek, and Dushanbe, July 1998, August 2000, January 2003.

⁹⁶ Author interviews with kin of Rashidov and government officials in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, May-June 1998.

⁹⁷ Author interviews with Uzbek and Tajik government officials, Tashkent, August 1998, Dushanbe, March 2001.

⁹⁸ Author interview with Kyrgyz government adviser, Bishkek, August 1998.

⁹⁹ Erkebaev, A., 1990 god: Prikhod k vlasti A. Akaeva (1990: A. Akaev's coming to power) (Bishkek: ATC Books International, 1997)Google Scholar; and Dj. Asankulov, “Askar Akaev kak otkritaia kniga,” in Askar Akaev (Bishkek: “Asaba” 1993).

¹⁰⁰ Author interview with Uzbek government adviser, Tashkent, September 1998. See also Carlisle (fn. 93), 116–18.

¹⁰¹ Author interview (fn. 100).

¹⁰² James Critchlow, “Prelude to Independence,” in Fierman (fn. 80), 153.

¹⁰³ Abai Tursunov, ”Islam Karimov, sil'nyi chelovek v 'zalozhnikakh',”Kontinent, October 16, 2002 (www.continent.kz/2002/10/16, accessed October 2002).

¹⁰⁴ On the Soviet period and transitions, see Michael Ochs, “Turkmenistan: The Quest for Stability and Control,” and Olcott, Martha, “Democratization and the Growth of Political Participation in Kazakhstan,” both in Dawisha, Karen and Parrott, Bruce, eds., Conflict, Cleavage and Change in Central Asia and the Caucasus (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997)Google Scholar.

¹⁰⁵ Olcott (fn. 104), 204–5.

¹⁰⁶ Akiner, Shirin, The Formation ofKazakh Identity (London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1995), 56–57Google Scholar.

¹⁰⁷ Ochs (fn. 104).

¹⁰⁸ Roy (fn. 85).

¹⁰⁹ Author interviews with Tajik government representative, Tashkent, May 1998, and with Oleg Grinevskii, Stanford, May 1999.

¹¹⁰ On the podesta facilitating informal agreements, see Greif (fn. 3), 46–47.

¹¹¹ Fish (fn. 16); McFaul (fn. 13).

¹¹² Munck, Gerardo and Leff, Carol Skalnik, “Modes of Transition and Democratization: South America and Eastern Europe in Comparative Perspective,” Comparative Politics 29 (April 1997), 344–45CrossRefGoogle Scholar. They argue that the “identity of the actors in the transition and their strategies” explain how democracies emerge and consolidate. In clan-based societies, the identity of the transitional actors is critically different.

¹¹³ James Mahoney, “Causal Mechanisms, Correlations, and a Power Theory of Society” (Paper presented at the American Political Science Association, August 31,2002), 9.

¹¹⁴ On asset stripping by individuals, not groups, see Solnick, Steven, Stealing the State: Control and Collapse in Soviet Institutions (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998)Google Scholar.

¹¹⁵ Lauth (fn. 3), 30; and Gibson (fn. 38), 59.

¹¹⁶ O'Donnell (fn. 7); and Rose-Ackerman (fn. 51).

¹¹⁷ Similar conditions lead to state failure. See Rotberg, Robert, ed., State Failure and State Weakness in a Time of Terror (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2003), 20–22Google Scholar.

¹¹⁸ Fish (fn. 16); McFaul (fn. 13).

¹¹⁹ Lack of space precludes providing an exhaustive list. These areas reflect the basic dimensions of democracy, defined by Dahl as participation, contestation, and representation. See Dahl, Robert, Polyarchy (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971)Google Scholar; and Linz and Stepan (fn. 15), 56.

¹²⁰ This is not an element of all authoritarian regimes, but it is a critical element in building “socialist” authoritarianism in Uzbekistan, which has sought to maintain a centrally planned economy.

¹²¹ Erkebaev (fn. 99), 99–100.

¹²² Eugene Huskey, “Kyrgyzstan: The Fate of Political Liberalization,” in Dawisha and Parrott (fn. 104), 254–55.

¹²³ Author interview with Dj. Dzeksheev, a leader of the Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, November 1994.

¹²⁴ Author interview with governmental adviser, Kyrgyzstan, August 1998.

¹²⁵ Author interviews with Tolekan Ismailova, head of the democratic Coalition of NGOs, Kyrgyzstan, Stanford, November 2002, and with Ercan Murat, head of the United Nations Development Program, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, August 1995. Both credit Akayev with the early progress toward democracy. See also Huskey (fn. 122), 252–53.

¹²⁶ The 1995 elections were declared “free and fair” by the OSCE, the UN, and other international observers, but the OSCE noted they were plagued by “family voting.” See Nations in Transit 2000: Kyrgyz Republic (New York: Freedom House, 2001), 223Google Scholar. The 1991 election, held just after the Soviet collapse, was not monitored.

¹²⁷ On thresholds and definitions of democracy, minimalist to more comprehensive, see Diamond, Larry, Developing Democracy: Towards Consolidation (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999)Google Scholar.

¹²⁸ Akayev (fn. 1).

¹²⁹ For more detail, see Collins (fn. 14,1999), chap. 7.

¹³⁰ Author interview with local political expert from Kyrgyzstan, May 2003.

¹³¹ Nations in Transit 2001: Kyrgyz Republic (www.freedomhouse.org/research/nitransit/2001/index.htm, accessed March 2002). The report notes that independent deputies included government officials and clan leaders. There were also a handful of intellectuals, mostly from representing parties.

¹³² Alisher Khamidov, “Kyrgyzstan: Organized Opposition and Civil Unrest,” December 16, 2002 (www.eurasianet.org/departments/rights/articles/eavl21602.shtml, accessed December 2002).

¹³³ Author interview with political party expert, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, June 1998.

¹³⁴ Author interview with political party leader, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, October 1996.

¹³⁵ Author interview with journalist, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, January 2002.

¹³⁶ Ibid.

¹³⁷ Consider, by contrast, the Argentinian case; Helmke, Gretchen, “The Logic of Strategic Defection: Court-Executive Relations in Argentina under Dictatorship and Democracy,” American Political Science Review 96 (June 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹³⁸ Author interview with trade union leader, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, August 1995.

¹³⁹ Author interview with State Department official, January 2002.

¹⁴⁰ Author interview with Joormat Otorbaev, economic adviser to the president of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, January 2002.

¹⁴¹ Author interviews with Feliks Kulov, former vice president, with akim of Chui oblast', Bishkek, August 1995, and with other Kyrgyz officials, 1995–2001.

¹⁴² Alisher Khamidov, “Kyrgyzstan's Unrest Linked to Clan Rivalries” (www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/earO6O52.shtml, accessed June 2002). And author interview with Kyrgyzjournalist, Osh, August 2002.

¹⁴³ Author interview with Raya Kadyrova, NGO leader and sociologist, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, August 2002.

¹⁴⁴ Author interview with Uzbek expert, Tashkent, January 2002.

¹⁴⁵ Kul'chick, Yuri, Respublika Uzbekistan v seredine 90-kh godov (The Republic of Uzbekistan in the middle of the 1990s) (Moscow: RAN, 1995)Google Scholar.

¹⁴⁶ Author interview with OSCE representatives, Tashkent and Bishkek, June 2000. See also Kul'chick (fn. 145).

¹⁴⁷ This is not an element of all authoritarian regimes but is a critical element in building “socialist” authoritarianism in Uzbekistan, which has sought to maintain a centrally planned economy.

¹⁴⁸ International Crisis Group (ICG), “Uzbekistan's Reform Program: Illusion or Reality?” (Osh/Brussels: ICG, February 18,2003); Asia Report no. 46 (www.crisisweb.org/home/index/.cfm?idsl466Il=l, accessed February 2003).

¹⁴⁹ Author interviews with Uzbek businessmen, Tashkent 2000 and 2002. See also Farangis Said, “Machinations Mar Uzbekistan's Banking System,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, November 8,2000 (www.cacianalyst.org/view_article.php?articleid=308, accessed May 2003).

¹⁵⁰ Author interview with World Bank adviser, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, August 2002.

¹⁵¹ ICG (fn. 148), 25.

¹³² Author interview with David Pierce, head of the World Bank, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, August 2002.

¹⁵³ Usman Khaknazarov, “Vozrozhdenie ‘serogo kardinala uzbekskoipolitiki,” Tsentr Azna, January 2, 2003 (www.centrasia.ru, accessed January 2003; also found at www.navi.kz/articles/?artid+2280, accessed July 2003); and Alisher Taksanov, “Kanonizirovanie klanov,”Internet-gazeta, Kazakhstan, December 20, 2002 (www.navi.kz/articles/?artid+2176, accessed December 2002). The articles were quickly blocked in Uzbekistan.

¹⁵⁴ Author interview with anonymous official in Uzbekistan, Tashkent, 2002.

¹⁵⁵ Author interview with dissident Tajik journalist, Moscow, August 1998.

¹⁵⁶ Sergei Biriukov, “Elity-klientely,” Russkii zhurnal, March 18, 2003 (www.russ.ru/politics/20030318-bir.html, accessed April 2003).

¹⁵⁷ Rubin, Barnett, “Russian Hegemony and State Breakdown: Causes and Consequences of the Tajik Civil War,” in Rubin, Barnett and Snyder, Jack, eds., Post-Soviet Political Order (London: Rout-ledge Press, 1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

^1S8 Akbarzadeh, Shahram, “Why Did Nationalism Fail in Tajikistan?” Europe-Asia Studies 48 (November 1996)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Rubin, Barnett, “The Fragmentation of Tajikistan,” Survival 55 (Winter 1993–1994), 71CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁵⁹ Author interview with former U.S. official in Tajikistan, Baku, August 1998.

¹⁶⁰ Author interview with UNOCHA representative, Dushanbe, March 2001.

¹⁶¹ Nasrin Dadmehr, “Tajikistan: Regionalism and Weakness,” in Rotberg (fn. 117).

¹⁶² Shirin Akiner, Tajikistan: Reconciliation or Disintegration? (forthcoming); and Dadmehr (2003). On clans and mafias, see , Chubb, Tie Mafia and Politics: The Italian State under Seige (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989)Google Scholar.

¹⁶³ Author interviews with Abdumalik Abdullojanov, former prime minister, Tajikistan, and with other Tajik officials, Tashkent, August 1998.

¹⁶⁴ Author interviews with Tajik journalist and with OSCE representative, Dushanbe, August 2002.

¹⁶⁵ See Roy (fn. 85); and Rubin (fn. 157).

¹⁶⁶ Author interview with member of the Islamic Renaissance Party, Dushanbe, March 2001.

¹⁶⁷ Author interview with UNDP representative, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, August 2002. See also Roger McDermott, “The Army in Tajikistan: Ten Years of Independence,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, March 12,2003 (www.cacianalyst.org/view_article.php?articleid=1143, accessed April 2003); and former ambassador R. Grant Smith, “Dealing with Warlords,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, January 30, 2002 (www.cacianalyst.org/view_article.php?articleid=45, accessed March 2002).

¹⁶⁸ According to one Tajik journalist, clans have become increasingly criminalized since the war. Author interview with journalist, Moscow, August 2000.

¹⁶⁹ Schatz, Edward, “The Politics of Multiple Identities: Lineage and Ethnicity in Kazakhstan,” Europe-Asia Studies 52 (2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See Biriukov (fn. 156).

^I70 Olcott(fn. 104), 202–3.

¹⁷¹ Author interview with OSCE official, Tashkent, June 2000.

¹⁷² Author conversation with lawyer based in Kazakhstan, August 2003.

¹⁷³ RFE/RL, Kazakh News (October 10,2001).

¹⁷⁴ Aldar Kusainov, “Kazakhstan's Critical Choice,” January 1,2003 (www.eurasianet.org/departments/rights/articles/eavOl1303.shtmlwww.eurasianet.org/departments/rights/articles/eav011303.shtml, accessed February 2003).

¹⁷⁵ Ibid.

¹⁷⁶ Fairbanks, Charles, “Disillusionment in the Caucasus and Central Asia,” Journal of Democracy 12 (October 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁷⁷ Ochs (fn. 104), 317.

¹⁷⁸ International Crisis Group (ICG), “Turkmenistan: Cracks in the Marble” (Osh/Brussels: ICG, January 17,2003), 21 (www.crisisweb.org/home/index.cfm?id=1445&l=l, accessed January 2003).

¹⁷⁹ Rustem Safronov, “Turkmenistan Purge Indicative of Instability” (www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eavO312O2.shtml, March 12,2002, accessed March 2002).

¹⁸⁰ ICG (fn. 178), 7–9.

¹⁸¹ Author interview with Turkmen dissident, Moscow, August 2000.

¹⁸² Expert, “Turkmenistan Faces Multiple Sources of Domestic Strife,” February 12, 2003 (www.eurasianet.org/departments/recaps/articles/eav021203.shtml, accessed February 2003).

¹⁸³ Rustem Safronov, “Opposition in Exile: Turkmenistan,” December 9,2002 (www.eurasianet.org/departments/rights/articles/eavl20902.shtml, accessed December 2002).

¹⁸⁴ Roger McDermott, “Shake-up in Turkmen Spy Agency Hints at Pending Crisis,” September 30, 2002 (www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav093002_ pr.shtml, accessed October 2002).

¹⁸⁵ “Analyst Predicts ‘Radical Change’ Near for Turkmenistan,” October 21, 2002 (www.eurasianet.org/departments/recaps/articles/eavl02102.shtml, accessed November 2002).

¹⁸⁶ ICG (fh. 178), 3–7.

¹⁸⁷ Ariel Cohen, “Confronting Kazakhstan's ‘Dutch Disease,’” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, March 26,2003 (www.cacianalyst.org/view_article.php?articleid=1263, accessed April 2003); and Karl, Terry, The Paradox of Plenty (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1999)Google Scholar.

¹⁸⁸ Ross, Michael L., “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics 53 (April 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.