Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-19T15:16:29.408Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

International Trade and Coordination

Tracing Border Effects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 December 2017

Get access

Extract

This article examines how the institutional design of borders affects international trade. The authors explore variation in the effects of borders by comparing new international borders that follow precedent and thus have a prior institutional history with new international borders that lack such an institutional history. The former minimally disrupt—or restore—previous economic networks, while the latter fundamentally disrupt existing economic networks. A variety of empirical tests show that, consistent with this institutional perspective on borders, new international boundaries that follow precedent are associated with significantly faster recovery and greater increase in subsequent trade flows. By contrast, when new international borders are truly new, they disrupt local economic networks, introduce new transaction costs, and impose higher adjustment costs on states, which the authors show to have long-term deleterious effects on trade.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramson, Scott F., and Carter, David B.. 2016. “The Historical Origins of Territorial Disputes.” American Political Science Review 110, no. 4: 675–98. doi: 10.1017/S0003055416000381.Google Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, Johnson, Simon, and Robinson, James A.. 2002. “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, no. 4: 1231–94.Google Scholar
Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M., Redding, Stephen J., Sturm, Daniel M., and Wolf, Nikolaus. 2012. “The Economics of Density: Evidence from the Berlin Wall.” CEP Discussion Paper no. 1154. London, UK: Centre for Economic Peformance, London School of Economics and Political Science. At http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1154.pdf, accessed October 12, 2017.Google Scholar
Aker, Jenny C., Klein, Michael W.,O’Connell, Stephen A., and Yang, Muzhe. 2014. “Borders, Ethnicity and Trade.” Journal of Development Economics 107: 116. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.10.004.Google Scholar
Anderson, James E. 2010. “The Gravity Model.” NBER Working Paper no. 16576. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: 10.3386/w16576.Google Scholar
Anderson, James E., and van Wincoop, Eric. 2003. “Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle.” American Economic Review 93, no. 1: 170–92. At http://www.jstor.org/stable/3132167, accessed October 13, 2017.Google Scholar
Anderton, Charles H., and Carter, John R.. 2001. “The Impact of War on Trade: An Interrupted Times-Series Study.” Journal of Peace Research 38, no. 4: 445–57. doi: 10.1177/0022343301038004003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bairoch, Paul, Batou, Jean, and Chèvre, Pierre. 1988. Population des villes européennes de 800 à 1850: banque de données et analyse sommaire des résultats (la). Geneva, Switzerland: Librairie Droz.Google Scholar
Barbieri, Katherine, Keshk, Omar M. G., and Pollins, Brian. 2009. “Trading Data: Evaluating our Assumptions and Coding Rules.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 26, no. 5: 471–91. doi: 10.1177/0738894209343887.Google Scholar
Barbieri, Katherine, and Levy, Jack S.. 1999. “Sleeping with the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade.” Journal of Peace Research 36, no. 4: 463–79. doi: 10.1177/0022343399036004005.Google Scholar
Bliss, Harry, and Russett, Bruce. 1998. “Democratic Trading Partners: The Liberal Connection, 1962–1989.” Journal of Politics 60, no. 4: 1126–47. doi: 10.2307/2647734.Google Scholar
Branch, Jordan. 2014. The Cartographic State: Maps, Territory, and the Origins of Sovereignty. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Carter, David B., and Goemans, H. E.. 2011. “The Making of the Territorial Order: New Borders and the Emergence of Interstate Conflict.” International Organization 65, no. 2: 275310. doi: 10.1017/S0020818311000051.Google Scholar
Carter, David B., and Goemans, H. E.. 2017. Supplementary material for “International Trade and Coordination: Tracing Border Effects.” At https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887117000284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chanda, Areendam, and Putterman, Louis. 2007. “Early Starts, Reversals and Catch-up in the Process of Economic Development.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics 109, no. 2: 387413. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2007.00497.x.Google Scholar
Colaresi, Michael P., Rasler, Karen, and William R. Thompson, . 2008. Strategic Rivalries in World Politics: Position, Space and Conflict Escalation. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coughlin, Cletus C., and Novy, Dennis. 2013. “Is the International Border Effect Larger than the Domestic Border Effect? Evidence from US Trade.” CESifo Economic Studies 59, no. 2: 249–76. doi: 10.1093/cesifo/ifs002.Google Scholar
De Long, J. Bradford, and Shleifer, Andrei. 1993. “Princes and Merchants: European City Growth before the Industrial Revolution.” Journal of Law and Economics 36, no. 2: 671702. doi: 10.1086/467294.Google Scholar
Disdier, Anne-Célia, and Head, Keith. 2008. “The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade.” Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 1: 3748. doi: 10.1162/rest.90.1.37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Egger, Peter, and Gassebner, Martin. 2015. “International Terrorism as a Trade Impediment?Oxford Economic Papers 67, no. 1: 4262. doi: 10.1093/oep/gpu037.Google Scholar
Feaver, Donald, and Wilson, Kenneth. 2007. “Preferential Trade Agreements and Their Implications for Customs Services.” Journal of World Trade 41, no. 1: 5374. At https://www.kluwerlawonline.com/document.php?id=TRAD2007002, accessed October 12, 2017.Google Scholar
Feenstra, Robert C. 2002. “Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation.” Scottish Journal of Political Economy 49, no. 5: 491506 doi: 10.1111/1467-9485.00244.Google Scholar
Gavrilis, George. 2008. The Dynamics of Interstate Boundaries. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M. 2012. The Territorial Peace: Borders, State Development, and International Conflict. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gibler, Douglas M., and Tir, Jaroslav. 2010. “Settled Borders and Regime Type: Democratic Transitions as Consequences of Peaceful Territorial Transfers.” American Journal of Political Science 54, no. 4: 951–68. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00473.x.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glick, Reuven, and Rose, Andrew K.. 2016. “Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Reassessment.” European Economic Review 87, August: 78–91. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.03.010.Google Scholar
Goemans, Hein. 2006. “Bounded Communities: Territoriality, Territorial Attachment, and Conflict.” In Kahler, Miles and Walter, Barbara F., eds., Territoriality and Conflict in an Era of Globalization. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press: 2561.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary, and Diehl, Paul. 1992. Territorial Changes and International Conflict. London, UK: Routledge.Google Scholar
Goldstein, Judith L., Rivers, Douglas, and Tomz, Michael. 2007. “Institutions in International Relations: Understanding the Effects of GATT and the WTO on World Trade.” International Organization 61, no. 1: 3767. doi: 10.1017/S0020818307070014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 1994. Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne, and Hicks, Raymond. 2013. “Politics, Institutions, and Trade: Lessons of the Interwar Era.” International Organization 67, no. 3: 439–67. doi: 10.1017/S0020818313000118.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne, and Hicks, Raymond. 2014. “New Trade Data: 1900–1947.” Working Paper. Princeton University.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne, and Mansfield, Edward D.. 1993. “Power Politics and International Trade.” American Political Science Review 87, 2: 408–20. doi: 10.2307/2939050.Google Scholar
Grompone, Adele, and Sessa, Luca. 2015. “Cultural Persistence? Evidence from an Administrative Reform on Borders of Southern Italy.” Ancona, Italy: Italian Economic Association. At http://www.siecon.org/online/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Sessa.pdf, accessed October 12, 2017.Google Scholar
Heinemeyer, Hans-Christian. 2007. “The Treatment Effect of Borders on Trade. The Great War and the Disintegration of Central Europe.” Cliometrica 1, no. 3: 177210. doi: 10.1007/s11698-007-0010-8.Google Scholar
Hensel, Paul R. 2000. “Territory: Theory and Evidence on Geography and Conflict.” In Vasquez, John A., ed., What Do We Know About War? Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.: 5784.Google Scholar
Hensel, Paul R. 2013. “General Codebook: Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) Project.” University of North Texas, Version1.1. At http://www.icow.org, accessed October 12, 2017.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1996. Standing Your Ground: Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K., and Allee, Todd L.. 2002. The Democratic Peace and Territorial Conflict in the Twentieth Century. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K., Croco, Sarah E., and Appel, Benjamin J.. 2011. “Does International Law Promote the Peaceful Settlement of International Disputes? Evidence from the Study of Territorial Conflicts since 1945.” American Political Science Review 105, no. 2: 415–36. doi: 10.1017/S0003055411000062.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, Jesse C., Souva, Mark, and Smith, Dale L.. 2013. “Market-Protecting Institutions and the World Trade Organization's Ability to Promote Trade.” International Studies Quarterly 57, no. 2: 410–17. doi: 10.1111/isqu.12077.Google Scholar
Keshk, Omar M. G., Pollins, Brian M., and Reuveny, Rafael. 2004. “Trade Still Follows the Flag: The Primacy of Politics in a Simultaneous Model of Interdependence and Armed Conflict.” Journal of Politics 66, no. 4: 1155–79. doi: 10.1111/j.0022-3816.2004.00294.x.Google Scholar
Keshk, Omar M. G., Reuveny, Rafael, and Pollins, Brian M.. 2010. “Trade and Conflict: Proximity, Country Size, and Measures.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 27, no. 1: 327. doi: 10.1177/0265659009352137.Google Scholar
Kieck, Erich. 2010. “Coordinated Border Management: Unlocking Trade Opportunities through One-Stop Border Posts.” World Customs Journal 4, no. 1: 313.Google Scholar
Leeds, Brett Ashley, Ritter, Jeffrey, Mitchell, Sara, and Long, Andrew. 2002. “Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815–1944.” International Interactions 28, no. 3: 237–60. doi: 10.1080/03050620213653.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Linneman, Hans. 1966. An Econometric Study of International Trade Flows. Amsterdam, Netherlands: North Holland.Google Scholar
Llano-Veruras, Carlos, Minondo, Asier, and Requena-Silvente, Francisco. 2011. “Is the Border Effect an Artefact of Geographical Aggregation?World Economy 34, no. 10: 1771–87. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01398.x.Google Scholar
Macchiavello, Rocco, and Morjaria, Ameet. 2015. “The Value of Relationships: Evidence from a Supply Shock to Kenyan Rose Exports.” American Economic Review 105, no. 9: 2911–45. doi: 10.1257/aer.20120141.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Milner, Helen V.. 2012. Votes, Vetoes, and the Political Economy of International Trade Agreements. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., Milner, Helen V., and Rosendorff, B. Peter. 2000. “Free to Trade: Democracies, Autocracies, and International Trade.” American Political Science Review 94, no. 2: 305–21. doi: 10.2307/2586014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mansfield, Edward D., and Pevehouse, Jon C.. 2000. “Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict.” International Organization 54, no. 4: 775808. doi: 10.1162/002081800551361.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 2005. Dyadic MID Dataset. Technical Report Version 2.0. University of California, Davis. At http://vanity.dss.ucdavis.edu/~maoz/dyadmid.html, accessed October 18, 2017.Google Scholar
McCallum, John. 1995. “National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns.” American Economic Review 85, no. 3: 615–23. At http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118191.Google Scholar
Melitz, Marc J., and Redding, Stephen J.. 2014. “Heterogeneous Firms and Trade.” Handbook of International Economics 4, 4: 154. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-444-54314-1.00001-X.Google Scholar
Milimet, Daniel L., and Osang, Thomas. 2007. “Do State Borders Matter for U.S. Intranational Trade? The Role of History and Internal Migration.” Canadian Journal of Economics 40, no. 1: 93126. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00401.x.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Tabares, Tressa E.. 1998. “The Political Determinants of International Trade: The Major Powers, 1907–1990.” American Political Science Review 92, no. 3: 649–61. doi: 10.2307/2585487.Google Scholar
Owsiak, Andrew P. 2013. “Signing Up for Peace: International Boundary Agreements, Democracy, and Militarized Interstate Conflict.” International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 1: 5166. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00699.x.Google Scholar
Pierson, Paul. 2000. “Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Politics.” American Political Science Review 94, no. 2: 251–67. doi: 10.2307/2586011.Google Scholar
Pollins, Brian M. 1989. “Conflict, Cooperation, and Commerce: The Effect of International Political Interactions on Bilateral Trade Flows.” American Journal of Political Science 33, no. 3: 737–61. At http://www.jstor.org/stable/2111070.Google Scholar
Roberts, Mark J., and Tybout, James R.. 1997. “The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs.” American Economic Review 87, no. 4: 545–64. At http://www.jstor.org/stable/2951363.Google Scholar
Rogowski, Ronald. 1990. Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Sahlins, Peter. 1989. Boundaries: The Making of France and Spain in the Pyrenees, 1st ed. Berkeley and Los Angeles, Calif.: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2014. “What's in a Claim? De Jure versus De Facto Borders in Interstate Territorial Disputes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58, no. 6: 1059–84. doi: 10.1177/0022002713487317.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A. 2002. “Capacity, Commitment, and Compliance: International Institutions and Territorial Disputes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 6: 829–56. doi: 10.1177/002200202237931.Google Scholar
Simmons, Beth A. 2005. “Rules over Real Estate: Trade, Territorial Conflict, and International Borders as Institutions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 6: 823–48. doi: 10.1177/0022002705281349.Google Scholar
Souva, Mark, Smith, Dale L., and Rowan, Shawn. 2008. “Promoting Trade: The Importance of Market Protecting Institutions.” Journal of Politics 70, no. 2: 383–92. doi: 10.1017/s0022381608080377.Google Scholar
Tinbergen, Jan. 1962. Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. New York, N.Y.: Twentieth Century Fund.Google Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav. 2003. “Averting Armed in International Conflicts through State-to- State Territorial Transfers.” Journal of Politics 65, no. 4: 1235–57. doi: 10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00135.Google Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav. 2005a. “Dividing Countries to Promote Peace: Prospects for Long-Term Success of Partitions.” Journal of Peace Research 42, no. 5: 545–62. doi: 10.1177/0022343305056228.Google Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav. 2005b. “Keeping the Peace after Secession: Territorial Conflicts between Rump and Secessionist States.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, no. 5: 713–41. doi: 10.1177/0022002705279426.Google Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav, Shafer, Philip, Diehl, Paul F., and Goertz, Gary. 1998. “Territorial Changes, 1816–1996.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 16: 8997. doi: 10 .1177/073889429801600105.Google Scholar
Trefler, Daniel. 1995. “The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries.” American Economic Review 85, no. 5: 1029–46. At http://www.jstor.org/stable/2950973.Google Scholar
Vasquez, John A. 1993. The War Puzzle. New York, N.Y.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Wilson, John S., Mann, Catherine L., and Otsuki, Tsunehiro. 2003. “Trade Facilitation and Economic Development: A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact.” World Bank Economic Review 17, no. 3: 367–89. At http://www.jstor.org/stable/3990246.Google Scholar
Wilson, John S., Mann, Catherine L., and Otsuki, Tsunehiro. 2005. “Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective.” World Economy 28, no. 6: 841–71. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00709.x.Google Scholar
Wolf, Holger C. 2000. “Intranational Home Bias in Trade.” Review of Economics and Statistics 82, no. 4: 555–63. doi: 10.1162/003465300559046.Google Scholar
Wolf, Nikolaus. 2005. “Path Dependent Border Effects: The Case of Poland's Reunification (1918–1939).” Explorations in Economic History 42, no. 3: 414–38. doi: 10.1016/j.eeh.2004.10.002.Google Scholar
Wolf, Nikolaus, Schulze, Max-Stephan, and Heinemeyer, Hans-Christian. 2011. “On the Economic Consequences of the Peace: Trade and Borders after Versailles.” Journal of Economic History 71, no. 4: 915–49. doi: 10.1017/S0022050711002191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Carter and Goemans supplementary material

Carter and Goemans supplementary material 1

Download Carter and Goemans supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 331.3 KB