¹ ”Islamist” and ”Islamism” should be distinguished from the apolitical terms ”Islam” and ”Islamic,” which refer to the religion. Beinin, Joel and Stork, Joe, eds., Political Islam: Essaysfrom Middle Report (London: I. B. Tauris, 1997Google Scholar); 4. Esposito, John, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999), 6Google Scholar.

² Two notable recent studies that move in this direction are Carrie Rosefsky Wickham, Mobilizing Islam: Religion, Activism, and Political Change in Egypt (New York: Columbia University Press, and Wiktorowicz, Quintan, ed., Islamic Activism: A Social Movement Theory Approach (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 2004Google Scholar).

³ Olivier Roy and Gilles Kepel stress socioeconomic grievances; see Roy, , The Failure of'Politi-calIslam (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1994Google Scholar); and Kepel, , Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2002Google Scholar). Esposito (fn. 1) offers a more nuanced historical perspective. Policy-oriented studies similarly look at Islamism writ large; Fuller, Graham, The Future of PoliticalIslam (New York:Palgrave, 2003Google Scholar). For the culruralist view, see Huntington, Samuel, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1996Google Scholar); Lewis, Bernard, What Went Wrong? The Clash between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East (New York: Oxford University Press, 2001Google Scholar).

⁴ Doran, Michael, ”The Pragmatic Fanaticism of al Qaeda: An Anatomy of Extremism in the Middle East,” Political Science Quarterly 117, no. 2 (2002CrossRefGoogle Scholar); Pape, Robert, Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism (New York:Random House, 2005Google Scholar); Gerges, Fawaz, The Far Enemy: Why Jihad Went Global (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

⁵ For example, Lyall, Jason M. K., ”Pocket Protests: Rhetorical Coercion and the Micropolitics of Collective Action in Semiauthoritarian Regimes,” World Politics 58 (April 2006CrossRefGoogle Scholar); Bunce, Valerie and Wolchik, Sharon, ”Favorable Conditions and Electoral Revolutions,” Journal of Democracy 17 (October 2006CrossRefGoogle Scholar); Tucker, Joshua, ”Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions” 5 (September 2007Google Scholar); McFaul, Michael, ”The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World,” World Politics 54 (January 2002CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

⁶ Esposito (fn. 1); Beinin and Stork (fn. 1).

⁷ Wickham (fn. 2); White, Jenny, Islamist Mobilization in Turkey (Seattle:University of Washington Press, 2005Google Scholar); Wiktorowicz (fn. 2).

⁸ Tarrow, Sidney, Power in Movement (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998), 4–5CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁹ Aminzade, Ronald and Perry, Elizabeth, ”The Sacred, Religious, and Secular in Contentious Politics,” in Aminzade, Ronald, Goldstone, Jack A., McAdam, Doug, Perry, Elizabeth, Sewell, William Jr., Tarrow, Sidney, and Tilly, Charles, eds., Silence and Voice in the Study ofContentious Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 158CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁰ Levitsky, Steven and Way, Lucan, ”The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,” Journal of Democracy 13 (April 2002CrossRefGoogle Scholar); Diamond, Larry, ”Thinking about Hybrid Regimes,” Journal ofDemocracy 13 (April 2002Google Scholar); Lyall (fn. 5).

¹¹ Kazakhstan has a large Russian/European population and has had little Islamist mobilization. HT activity has been mainly in southern, ethnically Kazakh and Uzbek areas. In Turkmenistan the state's elimination of all opposition explains the lack of mobilization there.

¹² The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is a fourth Islamist organization. It began as the social movement Adolat in 1992 but by 1999 had become the IMU, a terrorist organization. It is thus less comparable than the groups included here. The existence of several other groups (Islamic Jihad and Bayat) is debated, so I do not include them here. Various IslamzV movements (for example, Akromiya in Uzbekistan or the Salafis in Azerbaijan) are predominantly apolitical and thus do not fit the definition of Islamist movements. For overviews, see Walker, Edward, ”Islam, Islamism, and Political Order in Central Asia,” Journal ofInternational Affairs 56 (Spring 2003Google Scholar); and McGlinchey, Eric, ”Autocrats, Islamists, and the Rise of Radicalism in Central Asia,” Current History 104 (October 2005Google Scholar).

¹³ Huntington (fn. 3); Lewis (fn. 3). See Esposito's critique (fn. 1).

¹⁴ Esposito (fn. 1), 10–11.

¹⁵ Kepel (fn. 3); Olimova, Saodat, ”Sotsial'nyi kontekst: otchuzhdenie,” in OSCE, , ed., Religioznyi tremizm v tsentral'nei Azii:problemy iperspeitivy [Religious Extremism in Central Asia: Problems and Perspectives] (Dushanbe: Sharq, 2002), 93–108Google Scholar.

¹⁶ Tessler, Mark, ”The Origins of Popular Support for Islamist Movements: A Political Economy Analysis,” in Entelis, John, ed., Islam, Democracy, and the State in North Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1997Google Scholar). See also Watch, Human Rights, Creating Enemies of the State (New York: Hu man Rights Watch, 2004Google Scholar); International Crisis Group (ICG), Asia Report no. 51, CentralAsia: Islam and the State, July 10,2003 (accessed October 2003).

¹⁷ Schwedler, Jillian, Faith in Moderation: Islamist Parties in Jordan and Yemen (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006CrossRefGoogle Scholar); Lyall (fn. 5).

¹⁸ ICG, ”Radical Islam in Central Asia: Responding to Hizb ut-Tahrir,” Asia Report no. 58, June 30, 2003, www.cnsisweb.org (accessed October 2003); Pomfret, Richard, The CentralAsian Economies since Independence (Princeton:Princeton University Press, 2006), 8–12Google Scholar.

¹⁹ McAdam, Doug, McCarthy, John, and Zald, Mayer, eds., Comparative Perspectives on SocialMove ments: Political Opportunities, Mobilizing Structures, and Cultural Framings (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996CrossRefGoogle Scholar); Tarrow (fn. 8); and McAdam, Doug, Tarrow, Sidney, and Tilly, Charles, Dynamics of Contention (Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2001CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

²⁰ Wickham (fn. 2); Wiktorowicz (fn. 2); Tarrow, Sidney, The New Transnational Activism (Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2005CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

²¹ Tarrow (fn. 8), 7; Tilly, ”Forward,” in Wiktorowicz (fn. 2).

²² Wiktorowicz, Quintan and Kaltenthaler, Karl, ”The Rationality of Radicalism,” Political Science Quarterly 121 (Summer 2006), 296CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²³ McCarthy, John and Zald, Mayer, Dynamics of Social Movements: Resource Mobilization, Control and Tactics (Cambridge, Mass.: Winthrop Publishers, 1979Google Scholar), 161; Snow, David and Benford, Robert, ”Ideology, Frame Resonance and Participant Mobilization,” in Klandermans, Bert, Kriese, Hanspeter, and Tarrow, Sidney, eds., From Structure to Action (Greenwich: JA1 Press, 1988Google Scholar); McAdam, Doug, ”Culture and Social Movements,” in Larana, Enrique and Johnston, Hank, eds., New Social Movements: From Ideology to Identity (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1994Google Scholar). Recent theoretical work focuses more on identity framing. See Tarrow (fn. 20).

²⁴ Wickham (fn. 2), 13.

²⁵ Tarrow (fn. 20).

²⁶ Exceptions include Philpott, Daniel, Revolutions in Sovereignty (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001Google Scholar). Comparative politics generally subsumes religion under ethnicity, but the ethnic politics literature devotes little attention to religion.

²⁷ See Goldstein, Judith and Keohane, Robert, eds., Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1993), 9Google Scholar. Constructivist-oriented scholars of international relations have demonstrated the powerful effects of ideas when they become institutionalized within particular international organizations or state institutions: Kathryn Sikkink, ”The Power of Principled Ideas: Human Rights Policies in the United States and Western Europe,” in Goldstein and Keohane, 160–69; Robert Jackson, ”The Weight of Ideas in Decolonization,” in Goldstein and Keohane, 133–34; Checkel, Jeffrey, Ideas and International Political Change: Soviet/Russian Behavior and the End of the Cold War (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997Google Scholar); and Keck, Margaret and Sikkink, Kathryn, Transnational Advocacy Networks (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1998), 74–76Google Scholar. On norms, see Katzenstein, Peter, ed., Culture, Norms, and Security (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1996Google Scholar); and Sundstrom, Lisa Mclntosh, ”Foreign Assistance, International Norms, and Civil Society Development: Lessons from the Russian Campaign,” International Organization 59 (Spring 2005CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

²⁸ Hall, Peter, The Power of Economic Ideas (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989Google Scholar); Sikkink, Kathryn, Ideas and Institutions (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991Google Scholar); Parsons, Craig, A Certain Idea of Europe (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2006Google Scholar); Blyth, Mark, Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002CrossRefGoogle Scholar); Appel, Hilary, ”The Ideological Determinants of Liberal Economic Reform: The Case of Privatization,” World Politics 52 (July 2000), 543CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁹ Several scholars stress the importance of Islamist ideas: Berman, Sheri, ”Islamism, Revolution, and Civil Society,” Political Science and Politics 1 (June 2003Google Scholar), 11; and Anderson, Lisa, ”Prospects for Liberalism in North Africa: Identities and Interests in Preindustrial Welfare States,” in Entelis, John, ed., Islam, Democracy and the State in North Africa (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1997Google Scholar), 132 On the distinction between ideas and ideology, see Hanson, Stephen, ”Postimperial Democracies: Ideology and Party Formation in Third Republic France, Weimar Germany, and Post-Soviet Russia,” East European Politics and Society 20, no. 2 (2006), 357CrossRefGoogle Scholar. The former are more diffuse; the latter systematizes ideas in a comprehensive way and sets the boundaries of membership in a community.

³⁰ On the institutionalization and role of democratic and fascist ideas and ideologies, see Berman, Sheri, The Social Democratic Moment: Ideas and Politics in the Making of lnterwar Europe (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998Google Scholar); and Hanson (fn. 29).

³¹ Berman, Sheri, The Primacy of Politics: Social Democracy and the Making of Europe's Century (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006CrossRefGoogle Scholar), 10; Goldstein and Keohane (fn. 27), 26; Sikkink (fn. 27), 145.

³² Blyth (fn. 28), 38–41.

³³ Mitchell, Robert, The Society of the Muslim Brothers (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993Google Scholar); Wickham (fn. 2).

³⁴ Philpott, Daniel, ”The Religious Roots of Modern International Relations,” World Politics 52 (January 2000), 207CrossRefGoogle Scholar–8.

³⁵ Ibid., 217.

³⁶ Wendt, Alexander, A Social Theory of International Relations (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999Google Scholar).

³⁷ Wickham(fn.2).

³⁸ Gerges (fn. 4) similarly argues that there is great diversity among jihadist groups (p. 31).

³⁹ In a similar vein, Gerges (fn. 4) finds that al-Qaeda had difficulty convincing national jihadists to adopt a global agenda (pp. 29–34).

⁴⁰ Keck and Sikkink (fn. 27), 119; Berman (fn. 30), 25. On networks as pathways of diffusion, see Tarrow (fn. 20), 104. On terrorist networks, see Sageman, Marc, Understanding Terror Networks (Philadelphia:University of Pennsylvania Press, 2004CrossRefGoogle Scholar). On Islamic networks, see Clark, Janine, ”Social Movement Theory and Patron-Clientelism,” Comparative Political Studies 37, no. 8 (2004), 941CrossRefGoogle Scholar–68.

⁴¹ Lyall (fn. 5).

⁴² Diane Singerman, ”The Networked World of Islamist Social Movements,” in Wiktorowicz (fn. 2), 149; Varshney, Ashutosh, Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002), 39–52Google Scholar; Collins, Kathleen, Clan Politics and Regime Transition in CentralAsia (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006), 23–53Google Scholar.

⁴³ Olson, Mancur, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1971Google Scholar); Granovetter, Mark, ”The Strength ofWeak Ties,” AmericanJournal of Sociology 78 (May 1973CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

⁴⁴ On the Aksy protest, see Radnitz, Scott, ”Networks, Localism, and Mobilization in Aksy, Kyr-gyzstan,” CentralAsia Survey 24 (December 2005Google Scholar).

⁴⁵ Khamidov, Alisher, ”Hizb-ut-Tahrir and the Challenges for Central Asian Security,” Brookings paper (May 2002Google Scholar); and Babajanov, Bakhtiyor, “Oreligiozno-politicheskoifartii bizb ut-takhrir” (Manuscript, Tashkent, January 2003Google Scholar).

⁴⁶ Author interview with members, branch of Ezgulik, Namangan, Uzbekistan, January 2003.

⁴⁷ Wilson, Andrew, Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2005Google Scholar).

⁴⁸ Author interview with HT spokesman, Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.

⁴⁹ Estimates are based on independent sources with an on-the-ground presence and knowledge of regions, neighborhoods, and villages where HT has activists and significant support. Similar assessments come from ICG (fn. 18), 17; journalists in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan; author interview with Alisher Sobirov, MP (committee on religious extremism and terrorism), Kyrgyzstan, January 2003; Rashid, Ahmed, Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia (New Haven:Yale University Press, 2002), 131Google Scholar; Gulnoza Saidzaimova, ”Central Asia: Hizb ut-Tahrir's Calls for Islamic State Find Support,” RFE/RI., January 17,2006; and Farangis Najibullah, ”Central Asia: Hizb ut-Tahrir Gains Support from Women,” RFE/RL, July 11, 2007. For example, journalists in Osh and Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, and Soghd, Tajikistan, pointed out areas in those regions where several thousand subscribe to HT.

⁵⁰ Baran, Zeyno, Hizb ut-Tahrir (Washington, D.C.: Nixon Center, 2004), 78Google Scholar.

⁵¹ Author interviews with Mikhail Ardzinov, director, Independent Human Rights Organization of Uzbekistan (IHROU), Tashkent, Uzbekistan, January 2003; and Abdusalim Ergashev, IHROU, Andi-jan, Uzbekistan, January 2003, and Freedom House representatives, Tashkent, January 2003.

⁵² Eurasia Insight, ”Religious Discontent Evident in the Ferghana Valley,” January 17, 2007, (ac-cessedJanuary 2007); Najibullah (fn. 49); ICG (fn. 18), 23; author interview with Rajab Mirzo, journalist, Tajikistan, August 2005.

⁵³ Alisher Khamidov and Alisher Saipov, ”Antiterrorism Crackdown Fuels Discontent in Kyrgyz-stan,” August 8,2006 (accessed January 2007).

⁵⁴ Analysts agree on HT'S sustained growth: Alisher Khamidov (fn. 45); Naumkin, Vitaly, Radical Islam in CentralAsia (Lanham:Rowman and Littlefield, 2004), 194Google Scholar; and Khalid, Adeeb, Islam after Communism (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2007Google Scholar), 161.

⁵⁵ Author, Kyrgyzstan survey, 2006. Kyrgyzstan has a population of over five million.

⁵⁶ Kurbonali Mukhabbanov, ”Re/igiozno-oppozitsionnye gruppy v Tadjikistane: Hizb ut-Tabrir,” in OSCE (fn. 15), 83–84.

⁵⁷ Marat, Erica, The Tulip Revolution: Kyrgyzstan One Year After (Jamestown Foundation, 2006), 117Google Scholar–19 (accessed May 2006).

⁵⁸ Mukhabbanov (fn. 56), 75–76; Muhiddin Kabiri, ”Islamskii radikalizm:faktory vozniknoveniia,” in OSCE (fn. 15), 126; Saniya Sagnaeva, ”Re/igiozno-oppozitsionnyegruppy v Kyrgyzstane: Hizb ut-Tabnr,” in OSCE (fn. 15); and Bakhtior Babadjanov,” Rehgiozno-oppozitsionnyegruppy v Uzbekistane” in OSCE (fn. 15).

⁵⁹ Author interview with Ergashev (fn. 51).

⁶⁰ Author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48); ICG (fn.18), 19.

⁶¹ Author interview with Sevara, HT member, Osh, October 2007.

⁶² Author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48).

⁶³ In interviews with journalists across the region, most agreed that HT operated with little funding; substantial resources were not necessary to fund its propaganda activities.

⁶⁴ www.hizbuttahnr.org (accessed March 2003).

⁶⁵ ut-Tahrir, Hizb, The Methodology ofHizb ut-Tahrirfor Change (London: Al-Khilafah Publications, 1999), 24–25Google Scholar.

⁶⁶ Freedom House, Nations in Transit, World Bank, and Polity scores all rate the Central Asian regimes as highly corrupt and generally more repressive of civil and political liberties since 1992.

⁶⁷ Author interview with journalist, Karshi newspaper, March 2005.

⁶⁸ Author interview with HT members, Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.

⁶⁹ In Kyrgyzstan, for example, 86 percent of those 18–24 and 89.6 percent of those 25–34 claim to be a ”strong” or ”moderate believer”; 17.4 percent of the total sample claim to have become more religious in the past five years. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey (2006). A strong majority of focus group participants were also interested in religious education.

⁷⁰ Gulnoza Saidazimova, ”Hizb ut-Tahrir's Calls for Islamic State Find Support,”January 17,2006 (accessed January 2006).

⁷¹ Author interview with HT women members, Jalalabad, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.

⁷² Author interview with Erkin, HT member, Ak-Artu, Osh oblast, Kyrgyzstan, October 2007.

⁷³ Author interview with U.S. government official/trial observer, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, July 2004. Although we must be extremely circumspect of statements made under pressure in Uzbek courts, most international observers generally believe HT members freely declare their devotion to its cause.

⁷⁴ Author interview with OSCE trial observer, Tashkent, January 2003.

⁷⁵ Author interview with Freedom House representatives, Tashkent, November 2004; Bishkek, August 12,2004.

⁷⁶ Author interview with Ravshana Makhtamova, Khujand, Tajikistan, January 10, 2003.

⁷⁷ Ibid.

⁷⁸ HT leaflets, Uzbekistan, 2003.

⁷⁹ HT leaflet, ”7000 Muslims Languishing in Uzbek Prisons,” December 30,2002.; this information is referenced at www.muslimuzbekistan.net.

⁸⁰ Author, Kyrgyzstan survey, 2006. Another 48.9 percent were uncertain (”don't know”), while .5 percent ”disagreed” and 7.5 percent ”completely disagreed.”

⁸¹ ICG, Asia Briefing no. 38, ”Uzbekistan: The Andijon Uprising,” May 25, 2005; Human Rights Watch, ”Bullets Were Falling Like Rain,” hrw.Org/reports/2005/Uzbekistan0605/2 (accessed January 2006).

⁸² HT leaflet, Uzbekistan, ”How the Butcher of Andijan Executed His Plan,” www.hizbuttahrir.org (accessed December 2005).

⁸³ Author interview with Osh journalist, June 2, 2005; the journalist shared leaflet content for January-March 2005.

⁸⁴ Gulnoza Saidzaimova, ”Kyrgyzstan: Hizb ut-Tahrir Rallies in South, Urges Election Boycott,” www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/2/2FF7FDEF-DAE8–4323–8F61–346A404F3EE9.html (accessed April 2005).

⁸⁵ In Kyrgyzstan, 94.1 percent replied that corruption was a ”very serious” or ”serious” problem. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.

⁸⁶ Author interview with Dastan, independent journalist, Jalalabad, August 2004. Akaev was overthrown in March 2005.

⁸⁷ Taqiuddin Al-Nabhani, The Khalifa, www.hizbuttahrir.org.

⁸⁸ Author interview with Ravshana Mahtamova, Khujand, January 10, 2003.

⁸⁹ Only 13.7 percent of Kyrgyzstani respondents rated the Palestinian jihad as ”just.” Author, Kyr-gyzstan survey.

⁹⁰ HT leaflet, ”Karimov's decisions are another group of weapons to trample on the Muslim population ofUzbekistan,” October 4,2002. In Kyrgyzstan, 27.6 percent of respondents reported a ”negative” or ”very negative” opinion ofJews. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.

⁹¹ HT leaflet, Uzbekistan, October 2002.

⁹² 42.4 percent reported a negative view of Christian missionaries. Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.

⁹³ Participants in forty-nine FGDs were asked about value change since 1991. In forty-eight (98 percent) of those groups participants were very concerned about negative social changes and moral decline. In one group (2 percent) participants expressed neutral to favorable views.

⁹⁴ OSCE, unpublished memo, courtesy of OSCE representative, Dushanbe, July 2002.

⁹⁵ Khalid (fn. 54).

⁹⁶ Author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48).

⁹⁷ Author interview with Tursunbai Bakir uluu, Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary ombudsman, Bishkek, January 2003, who is quoting an HT activist.

⁹⁸ Author interview with HT member, Shukrat, Osh, October 2007.

⁹⁹ Author interview, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, June 2005.

¹⁰⁰ ”Lying Is the Weapon of the Tyrant of Uzbekistan,” HT leaflet, May 14, 2005.

¹⁰¹ Author interview with Omurzak Mamayusupov, head of State Committee on Religious Affairs, Kyrgyzstan, August 2004.

¹⁰² For example, Daniel Kimmage, ”Kyrgyz Police Stop Hizb ut-Tahrir Printing Press,” RFE/RL, 8/2/2007.

¹⁰³ Communications with local experts and journalists, Osh, Jalalabad, Tashkent, and Dushanbe, 2002–4.

¹⁰⁴ ICG (fn.18), 20. HT members interviewed also responded that a personal connection or davatchx had introduced them to HT.

¹⁰⁵ Author interview with HT members, Jalalabad, August 2004; Naumkin (fn. 54), 147; Rashid (fn. 49), 127–28.

¹⁰⁶ Author interview with Alexander Rahmanov, Bureau on Human Rights and Law, Khujand, January 2003. Conversations with Kyrgyz journalists, 2002–5.

¹⁰⁷ ICG (fn. 18), 23; author interview with HT spokesman (fn. 48); author interview with Freedom House representative, Tashkent, November 2004.

¹⁰⁸ While only 10.5 percent in Kyrgyzstan believe that ”Muslims should live in a caliphate,” 28.1 percent supported some form of ”sharia” and 15.6 percent supported ”Islamic democracy.” Author, Kyrgyzstan survey.

¹⁰⁹ ICG (fn. 18), 18.

¹¹⁰ Author interview with Seid Abdullo Nuri, chairman of the IRP, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, August 14,2002.

¹¹¹ ”Tajikistan Votes 2005,” www.RFERL.org (accessed August 2006).

¹¹² Olimova, Saodat, ”Political Islam and Conflict in Tajikistan,” Central Asia and the Caucasus (1999), 5Google Scholar, www.ca-c.org (accessed June 2002); Rotar, Igor, ”Under the Green Banner: Islamic Radicals in Russia and the Former Soviet Union,” Religion, State and Society 30, no. 2 (2002CrossRefGoogle Scholar), 123; Bushkov, V. and Mikul'sky, D., Istoriia grazhdanskoi voiny v tadzhikistane [The History of the Civil War in Tajiki-stan] (Moscow:AN, 1996), 110Google Scholar.

¹¹³ Naumkin (fn. 54), 224–25.

¹¹⁴ Olimova (fn. 15), 95–96. The national survey was carried out by Sharq center (N = 1000).

¹¹⁵ Author interview with Vadim Nazarov, OSCE, Dushanbe, August 16, 2004. RFE'S Web site cites the IRP claim of twenty thousand.

¹¹⁶ Author interviews with Muhiddin Kabiri, IRP deputy chairman, Dushanbe, March 2001 and January 2003.

¹¹⁷ The OSCE deemed the election better butflawed.A fully free election may have resulted in more votes for the IRP, but it would likely have been a small minority. A 1999 survey showed only 5 percent support for the IRP; Olimova (fn. 110), 6.

¹¹⁸ Naumkin(fn. 54), 209.

¹¹⁹ Turajonzoda, Akbar, ”Religion: The Pillar of Society,” in Sagdeevand, RoaldEisenhower, Susan, eds., Central Asia: Conflict, Resolution, and Change (Chevy Chase, Md.: CPSS Press, 1995), 269Google Scholar.

¹²⁰ Barnett Rubin, ”Radical Islam in Central Asia,” ASIP, May 7, 2003, www.asiasource.org/asip/ rubinxfrn (accessed July 2007).

¹²¹ Naumkin(fn. 54), 215.

¹²² Olimova (fn. 110), 4.

¹²³ Ibid., 7.

¹²⁴ Author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116); author interview with Seid Ibrahim Muham-madnazar, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, August 2005.

¹²⁵ Author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116); Khalid (fn. 54), 187.

¹²⁶ Author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116); author interview with Muhhamadzazar (fn. 124).

¹²⁷ ”Party Leader Denies Aim to Create Islamic State in Tajikistan,” Tojikiston, Dushanbe, BBC, June 30, 2005Google Scholar.

¹²⁸ Author interview with Kabiri, 2001 (fn. 116); author interview with Muhammednazar (fn. 124).

¹²⁹ Author interview with Muhammednazar (fn. 124).

¹³⁰ Olimova (fn. 110), 7.

¹³¹ Author interview with Kabiri, 2001 (fn. 116).

¹³² Unlike the IRP, the three secular democratic parties competing did not pass the 5 percent threshold. Republic of Tajikistan Parliamentary Elections: Election Observation Mission Final Report (Warsaw: OSCE/ODIHR, May 2005), 21Google Scholar.

¹³³ Author interview with Nuri (fn. 110); author interview with Kabiri, 2003 (fn. 116).

¹³⁴ Interviw with Rajab Mirzo, journalist, Dushanbe, August 15,2002; Rotar (fn. 112).

¹³⁵ Author interview with IRP activist, Soghd, Tajikistan, January 2003.

¹³⁶ Balci, Bayram, ”Between Sunnism and Shiism: Islam in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan,” CentralAsian Survey 23 (June 2004), 208Google Scholar.

¹³⁷ Cornell, Svante, ”The Politicization of Islam in Azerbaijan” (Washington, D.C.: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, 2006), 60Google Scholar.

¹³⁸ Aliyeva, Jahan, ”Religion Emerges as an Issue for Some Parliamentary Candidates in Azerbaijan,” November 2,2005, www.eurasianet.org (accessed November 2005Google Scholar).

¹³⁹ Yunusov, Arif, Islam in Azerbaijan (Baku: Friedrich Ebert Foundation, 2004), 185Google Scholar; Motika, Raoul, ”Islam in Post-Soviet Azerbaijan,” Archives de Sciences Sociales des Religions 115 (July—September 2001), 6Google Scholar.

¹⁴⁰ Communications with journalists and U.S. embassy officials, Baku, June 2005, May 2007.

¹⁴¹ Author interviews with Rafiq Aliev, head of state committee on religious affairs, Baku, Azerbaijan, January 2005, and Robin Seaward, OSCE representative, Baku, January 2006.

¹⁴² Communication with member of Azeri human rights NGO, Baku, January 2006.

¹⁴³ Balci (fn. 136), 214–15.

¹⁴⁴ Author, Azerbaijan survey, 2006.

¹⁴⁵ Author interview with group of IPA activists, Ganja, Azerbaijan, June 2005.

¹⁴⁶ Ibid.

¹⁴⁷ Ibid.

¹⁴⁸ Ibid.

¹⁴⁹ Trendaz, July 26, 2007, www.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=9633548dang =EN (accessed July 2007).

¹⁵⁰ Author interview with IPA activists (fn. 145).

¹⁵¹ ”Polls Show Azerbaijan as a Tolerant Country,” Zerkalo, Baku, BBC, February 12, 2005, 12Google Scholar.

¹⁵² Rotar(fn. 112), 119.

¹⁵³ Communication with activist, human rights NGO, Baku, August 2005.

¹⁵⁴ ”Azerbaijan Islamic Party Vows to Expand Anti-Israeli Demonstrations,” www.rferl.org/ newsline/2006/08/070806.asp; and author communication with Nariman Qasimoglu, Islamic scholar and vice-chairman for religious affairs, Popular Front, Baku, Azerbaijan, January 2006.

¹⁵⁵ Author interview with Rovshan, activist in the religious organization, Ahli Beit, Ganja, August 2005; author interview with IPA activists (fn. 145).

¹⁵⁶ Author interview with NGO member/human rights worker, Khachmaz, Azerbaijan, August 2005.

¹⁵⁷ On ideas and the Civil Rights Act, see Lieberman, Robert, ”Ideas, Institutions, and Political Order: Explaining Political Change,” American Political Science Review 96, no. 4 (December 2002), 709CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁵⁸ Lyall (fn. 5), 382–88.

¹⁵⁹ Kuran, Timur, ”Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989,” World Politics 44 (October 1991CrossRefGoogle Scholar).

¹⁶⁰ Bunce and Wolchik (fn. 5), 14–15.

¹⁶¹ Ibid., 283–304.

¹⁶² Tucker (fn. 5), 23.

¹⁶³ Wiktorowicz (fn. 2); Wickham (fn. 2).

¹⁶⁴ Lyall (fn. 5) refers to this as a problem of ”organizational culture” (p. 382).

¹⁶⁵ ICG (fn. 16).

¹⁶⁶ On societal views about religion and politics, see Kathleen Collins, ”Islamic Revivalism and Societal Views on Democracy and Political Islam in Central Asia” (Paper presented at the Association for the Study of Nationalities Convention, New York, March 23–25,2006).