¹ “Egypt NDP Member Hints at Gamal for President,” Reuters News, September 19,2006, http:// global.factiva.com (accessed September 25,2006).

² Abdul Aziz, Muhammad and Hussein, Youssef, “The President, the Son, and the Military: Succession in Egypt,” Arab Studies Journal 9/10 (Fall 2001Google Scholar/Spring 2002); Shehata, Samer, “Political Succession in Egypt,” Middle East Policy 9 (September 2002)Google Scholar; and Mary Weaver, Anne, “Pharaohs-In- Waiting,” The Atlantic (October 2003Google Scholar).

³ Huntington, Samuel, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1968), 168Google Scholar.

⁴ Burling, Robbins, The Passage of Power: Studies in Political Succession (New York: Academic Press, 1974), 142Google Scholar. One recent attempt at apprehending hereditary succession in autocratic regimes is Tharwat, Muhammad, Asr al-jumhunyat al-malakiyah [The Era of Monarchical Republics] (Cairo, Egypt: al-Dar al-Thaqafiyah lil-Nashr, 2002)Google Scholar.

⁵ Ottaway, Marina and Olcott, Martha Brill, “The Challenge of Semi-Authoritarianism,” Carnegie Paper, no. 7 (October 1999)Google Scholar; Schedler, Andreas, “The Democratic Revelation,” Journal of Democracy 11 (October 2000)Google Scholar; Lust-Okar, Ellen and Jamal, Amaney, “Rulers and Rules: Reassessing the Influence of Regime Type on Electoral Law Formation,” Comparative Political Studies 35 (April 2002)Google Scholar; Diamond, Larry Jay, “Thinking about Hybrid Regimes,” Journal of Democracy 13 (April 2002)Google Scholar; and Levitsky, Steven and Way, Lucan A., “The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,” Journal of Democracy 13 (April 2002)Google Scholar.

⁶ Azerbaijan held multiparty parliamentary elections in 1990,1995, and 2000, as well as multicandidate presidential elections won by Heydar Aliyev, in 1993 and 1998. After gaining independence in 1965, Singapore has held ten multiparty elections. The Togolese government introduced multiparty elections in 1993. Grotz, Hans Florian and Motika, Raoul, “Azerbaijan,” in Nohlen, Dieter, Grotz, Florian, and Hartmann, Christof, eds., Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data Handbook (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), 1Google Scholar:362—64; Rieger, Christoph, “Singapore,” in Nohlen, Dieter, Grotz, Florian, and Hartmann, Christof, eds., Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data Handbook (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001), 2Google Scholar:254–55; International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, http://www.idea.int/vt/country_view.cfm?CountryCode=SG (accessed November 6, 2006); and Bratton, Michael and Van de Walle, Nicolas, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), 196Google Scholar–97.

⁷ Wedeen, Lisa, “Seeing Like a Citizen, Acting Like a State: Exemplary Events in Unified Yemen,” Comparative Studies in History and Society 45 (October 2003), 691Google Scholar; Snyder, Richard, “Beyond Electoral Authoritarianism: The Spectrum of Nondemocratic Regimes,” in Schedler, Andreas, Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics ofUnfree Competition (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2006), 220Google Scholar–22; and Anderson, Lisa, “Searching Where the Light Shines: Studying Democratization in the Middle East,” Annual Review of Political Science 9 (2006), 199Google Scholar.

⁸ See, among others, Geddes, Barbara, “Authoritarian Breakdown: Empirical Test of a Game Theoretic Argument,” (paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, Ga., September 2–5, 1999)Google Scholar; Brooker, Paul, Non-Democratic Regimes: Theory, Government and Politics (New York: St. Martin's Press, 2000)Google Scholar; Ross, Michael L., “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics 53 (April 2001)Google Scholar; Waldner, David, “Democracy and Dictatorship in the Post-Colonial World,” (paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 2–5Google Scholar, 2004); Lust-Okar, Ellen, Structuring Contestation in the Arab World: Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005)Google Scholar; Posusney, Marsha Pripstein and Penner Angrist, Michele, eds., Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Press, 2005)Google Scholar; Smith, Benjamin, “Life of the Party: The Origins of Regime Breakdown and Persistence under Single-Party Rule,” World Politics 57 (April 2005)Google Scholar; Way, Lucan A., “Authoritarian State Building and the Sources of Regime Competitiveness in the Fourth Wave: The Cases of Belarus, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine,” World Politics 57 (January 2005)Google Scholar; and Slater, Dan, “Ordering Power: Contentious Politics, State-Building and Authoritarian Durability in Southeast Asia” (Ph.D. diss., Emory University, 2005)Google Scholar.

⁹ Studies of succession have focused on the Soviet Union and Mexico, but have not established cross-regional explanatory frameworks. Mexico's Partido Revoluncionario Institucional (PRI, r. 1929–2000) selected a nonincumbent presidential candidate every six years, providing an exceptionally robust answer to the succession question. On the Soviet Union, see Bunce, Valerie, “Leadership Succession and Policy Innovation in the Soviet Republics,” Comparative Politics 11 (July 1979)Google Scholar; and the exchange between Valerie Bunce and Roeder, Philip G., “The Effects of Leadership Succession in the Soviet Union,” American Political Science Review 80 (March 1986)Google Scholar. On the PRI, consult Knight, Alan, “Mexico's Elite Settlement: Conjuncture and Consequences,” in Higley, John and Gunther, Richard, eds., Elites and Democratic Consolidation in Latin America and Southern Europe (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992)Google Scholar; and Haggard, Stephan and Kaufman, Robert R., The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995)Google Scholar.

¹⁰ Tullock, Gordon, Autocracy (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1987)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹¹ The data set compiles relevant political and genealogical information on nonmonarchical rulers in power for at least three years. In addition to supplementary sources on specific cases, the main sources for information were the Library of Congress Country Studies series; Geddes (fn. 8); Nohlen, Dieter, Krennerich, Michael, and Thibaut, Bernhard, eds., Elections in Africa: A Data Handbook (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999)Google Scholar; Nohlen, , Grotz, , and Hartmann, (fn. 6, vols. 1 and 2); Encyclopedia of World Biography (Detroit, Mich.: Gale Group, 1998)Google Scholar; and Gomans, Hein, Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian, Chiozza, Giacomo, Archigos: A Dataset of Leaders 1875–2004 (2006), (accessed August 18, 2006)Google Scholar.

¹² In Egypt, Anwar Sadat made Hosni Mubarak his vice president and expected successor in 1975. Mubarak thus gained the status of heir apparent three years before Sadat inaugurated the National Democratic Party and installed Mubarak as the party's vice chairman. On Sadat's tapping of Mubarak and the NDP'S founding, see Waterbury, John, The Egypt of Nasser and Sadat: The Political Economy of Two Regimes (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1983), 47Google Scholar, 369–71.

¹³ Rustow, Dankwart, “Succession in the Twentieth Century,” Journal of International Affairs 18 (1964), 108–109Google Scholar.

¹⁴ Herz, John H., “The Problem of Successorship in Dictatorial Regimes: A Study in Comparative Law and Institutions,” Journal of Politics 14 (February 1952), 19CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁵ On the difficulties of undemocratic rulers retaining power, see Bienen, Henry and van de Walk, Nicolas, Of Time and Power: Leadership Duration in the Modern World (Palo Alto, Calif: Stanford University Press, 1991)Google Scholar; Geddes (fn. 8); de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph M., and Morrow, James D., The Logic of Political Survival (Boston, Mass.: MIT Press, 2003), 300Google Scholar–302.

¹⁶ I discuss these examples in greater detail below. During the transition period in Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew and his eventual heir suppressed public discussions of hereditary succession, even charging the International Herald Tribune With libel for an opinion column about dynastic politics in Singapore. Bowring, Philip, “The Claims About Asian' Values Don’t Usually Bear Scrutiny,” International Herald Tribune, August 2, 1994Google Scholar; and “Nepotism: A Little More than Kin,” Economist, December 24, 1994Google Scholar. Subsequent events supported the Tribune columnist's argument that political authority had remained within the Lee family. A decade after Lee Kuan Yew's putative handover of power, one observer remarked, “Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong still is seen by some to be functioning virtually on probation.” Vasil, Raj, Governing Singapore: Democracy and National Development (Singapore: Allen & Unwin, 2000), 137Google Scholar.

¹⁷ Under these strict definitions I omit the post hoc succession of Joseph Kabila in the Democratic Republic of Congo following President Laurent Kabila's assassination in 2001.

¹⁸ Were Raul Castro to succeed Fidel Castro, it would mark the only case in the data set where a long-ruling leader overlooked multiple eligible sons and inaugurated a brother-brother transfer of power. Juan O. Tamayo, “Castro's Secret Life: Even the CIA is Left to Wonder about the ‘Maximum Leader’ and His Family,” Seattle Times, October 25,2000, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 22,2006).

¹⁹ Schmitter, Philippe and Karl, Terry Lynn, “What Democracy Is . . . And Is Not,” Journal of Democracy (Summer 1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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²¹ Geddes (fn. 8), 1.

²² Editorial, , “Dynastic Regimes,” New York Times, August 25, 2003)Google Scholar; see also Sennott, Charles M., “Arab Sons of Privilege Inherit Power and Instill Doubts,” Boston Globe, June 14, 2000Google Scholar; and Whitaker, Brian, “Hereditary Republics in Arab States,” Guardian Unlimited, August 28, 2001Google Scholar.

²³ Linz, Juan J. and Stepan, Alfred, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), 52Google Scholar; Chehabi, H. E. and Linz, Juan J., “A Theory of Sultanism 1: A Type of Nondemocratic Rule,” in Chehabi, H. E. and Linz, Juan J., eds., Sultanistic Regimes (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), 15Google Scholar–17; Brooker (fn. 8), 144–47; andTharwat (fn. 4), 117.

²⁴ Shehata (fn. 2), 112.

²⁵ In their comparative study of developmental and patrimonial states, Peter Evans and James Rauch code the Dominican Republic and Haiti among the most personalized regimes of their data set (with scores of 2.0 and 4.0, out of a maximum of 13.50) while placing Singapore (13.50) and Taiwan (12.0) at the top of their rankings. Evans, Peter and Rauch, James E., “Bureaucracy and Growth: A Cross-National Analysis of the Effects of ‘Weberian’ State Structures on Economic Growth,” American Sociological Review 64 (October 1999), 763CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁶ For two influential examples see Bienen and van de Walle (fn. 15); and Bueno de Mesquita et al. (fn. 15).

²⁷ Herz (fn. 14), 30.

²⁸ Tullock (fn. 10), 151,153.

²⁹ Herz (fn. 14), 37.

³⁰ Tullock (fn. 10), 163.

³¹ See Bueno de Mesquita et al. (fn. 15), 17, for historical illustrations of this problem.

³² The threat from nonfilial relatives shows in at least three cases where familial coevals attempted or successfully executed coups. In the Dominican Republic, Rafael Trujillo's brother Petan plotted to seize power during the mid-1930s and was repeatedly posted abroad as a result. In Equatorial Guinea in 1979, current president Teodoro Obiang Nguema took power by ousting his uncle, Francisco Macias Nguema (eighteen years his senior). In Syria in 1983, Hafez al-Assad survived a coup attempt by his brother Rifaat, who was subsequently exiled. Crassweller, Robert D., Trujillo: The Life and Times of a Caribbean Dictator (New York: Macmillan, 1966), 140Google Scholar–41; Chirot, Daniel, Modern Tyrants: The Power and Prevalence of Evil in Our Age (New York: Free Press, 1994), 363Google Scholar–64; and Seale, Patrick, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East (Berkeley, Calif: University of California Press, 1988), 432Google Scholar–35.

³³ Tullock (fn. 10), 151–57.

³⁴ Ibid., 161, 166, 215.

³⁵ Herb, Michael, All in the Family: Absolutism, Revolution, and Democracy in the Middle Eastern Monarchies (Albany, N.Y.: State University of New York Press, 1999), 8Google Scholar. On the king's dilemma, see Huntington (fn. 3), 168.

³⁶ David Waldner has differentiated between low-intensity elite conflict, in which elite status is not threatened, and high-intensity elite conflict, in which elites face permanent loss of elite status. For treatment of leadership succession, I treat conflict intensity as a product of elite strategies, rather than as an independent variable. Waldner, David, State Building and Late Development (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1999), 29Google Scholar.

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⁴³ On Bashar's heir apparency in the late 1990s and succession during June—July 2000, see Stacher, Joshua A., “Adapting Authoritarianism: Institutions and Co-optation in Egypt and Syria” (Ph.D. diss., University of St. Andrew's, 2007), 122Google Scholar–28.

⁴⁴ Quinlivan (fn. 41), 134.

⁴⁵ Two empirical cases in which succession was screened from observation are the December 1989 ouster of Nicolae Ceausescu in Romania and the March 2003 deposition of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. In Romania, Nicu Ceausescu had been the clear frontrunner to succeed his father. In Iraq, Hussein's heir apparent was his son Qusay. But hereditary succession plans in these cases were not a proximate cause of the ruler's removal. These cases are therefore not considered as confirming or disconfirming the present theory. On dynastic socialism in Romania and the overthrow of Ceausescu see de Flers, Rene, “Socialism in One Family,” Survey: A Journal of East & West Studies 28 (Winter 1984)Google Scholar; Tismaneanu, Vladimir, “Ceausescu's Socialism,” Problems of Communism 34 (January—February 1985)Google Scholar; and Chirot (fn. 32), 256. On Saddam Hussein's regime and Qusay's promotion see “Iraq-Government Saddam Hussein's Second Son Named to Governing Council,” EFE News Service, June 9, 2001, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 18, 2007).

⁴⁶ I treat biological opportunity as exogenous. For example, I do not seek to explain why Antonio Salazar never married or why Francisco Franco sired no sons. Rather, I note those facts as they affect the question of why the Portuguese and Spanish regimes did not have hereditary successions while others, such as the Syrian regime, did.

⁴⁷ In the data set there are six rulers who took office through coups while between the ages of twenty-five and thirty: Valentine Strasser (Sierra-Leone), Michel Micombero (Burundi), Muammar Qadhafi (Libya), Samuel Doe (Liberia), Gnassingbe Eyadema (Togo), and Marien Ngouabi (Congo- Brazaville). Youth appears to be less a barrier to seizing power than it is for being granted power by an incumbent.

⁴⁸ Following this operationalization, I exclude the Haitian case from subsequent inferences. Although the Duvaliers. are an iconic example of hereditary succession, Francois Duvalier's grooming of his son appears to be exceptional. Inclusion of Haiti in the analysis would strengthen the postulated relationship between institutional antecedents and succession practices. See David Nicholls, “The Duvalier Regime in Haiti,” in Chehabi and Linz (fn. 23).

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⁵² “Guarding the Heir,” Time, February 17, 1958, http://www.time.eom/time/printout/0,8816, 862920,00.html (accessed May 17,2007).

⁵³ “Ramfis in Power,” Time, June 16, 1961, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,895364,00.html (accessed May 17,2007).

⁵⁴ Hartlyn (fn. 50), 103.

⁵⁵ In his discussion of hereditary succession Tullock asks, “Why did it take the direct intervention by the American government after the death of Trujillo to prevent his son from remaining in control of the family hacienda?” Tullock (fn. 10), 163.

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⁶³ David Stern, “Dynasty in Making as Aliyev's Son Charts Path to Azeri Presidency,” Agence Franc-Presse, December 22,1999, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 17, 2007).

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¹¹⁵ Louise Branson, “Deng's Third Successor in Three Years Faces Uncertain Future,” Strait Times, October 23, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 17, 2007); Nicholas D. Kristof, “China Whispers of Plots and Man Called Yang,” New York Times, October 24, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 17, 2007); Jim Abrams, “Communist Party Plenum Meets to Set Economic Course,” Associated Press, November 6, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 17, 2007); Louise Branson, “Deng Making Way for Jian ‘Like the Time Mao Anointed Hua,’“Sunday Times, November 12, 1989, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 17, 2007); Damien McElroy, “Anxious to Protect Business Interests, China's Leaders Delay Handover,” Daily Telegraph, August 17, 2002, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 17,2007); and Geoffrey York, “A New Star in the East,” Globe and Mail, November 2, 2002, http://global.factiva.com (accessed May 17, 2007).

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¹²⁰ Fox Butterfield, “Taiwan: A New Sense of Confidence,” New York Times, May 5, 1984, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 19, 2007); “Chiang Rules Out Family Succession, Military Rule for Taiwan,” Associated Press, December 25, 1985, http://global.factiva.com (accessed November 1, 2006); “Collective Leadership Likely in Taiwan After Chiang,” Wall Street Journal, December 31, 1985, http://global.factiva.com (accessed November 1, 2006); and “Obituary of Chiang Ching-kuo, Taiwan's Popular Reformer,” Financial Times, January 14, 1988, http://global.factiva.com (accessed June 19, 2007).

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¹²⁶ “Mozambique Set for Landmark Polls to Choose Peacemaker Chissano's Successor,” Agence France-Presse November 30, 2004, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 18, 2006).

¹²⁷ “Obiang Dissolves Parliament to Pave Way for First Free Elections,” Associated Press Political Service, July 3, 1993, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23, 2006); and Adrien Feniou, “Ruling Party in Equatorial Guinea Re-Elects President to Its Helm,” Global Insight Daily Analysis,” July 10,2006, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23,2006).

¹²⁸ Abbas Ghaleb, “Ruling Coalition Seen Winning in Yemen,” Associated Press, April 28, 1993, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23, 2006); and Muhammad Sudani, “Yemen's Saleh Gets Expected Presidential Win,” Reuters News, September 25, 1999, http://global.factiva.com (accessed December 23,2006).

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