Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-26T04:22:46.707Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Embedding Neoliberal Reform in Latin America

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 June 2011

Sarah M. Brooks
Affiliation:
Ohio State University, [email protected] Ohio State University, [email protected]
Get access

Abstract

Although research in the advanced industrial nations has identified a supportive link between an expanded public sector role and economic openness, studies of the developing world have been much less sanguine about the possibilities of broader state intervention in the context of economic liberalization. The authors investigate the possibility that governments in Latin America may “embed” economic openness in a broader public sector effort. They find that while several countries have moved toward an orthodox neoliberal model with minimal state interventions, other Latin American governments have maintained a broader public sector presence on the supply side of the economy while pursuing deep liberalization. They call the latter strategy “embedded neoliberalism,” to distinguish it from the more egalitarian ambitions of postwar embedded liberalism. Cross-sectional time-series analysis reveals that embedded neoliberal strategies in Latin America have grown out of a legacy of advanced import-substitution industrialization and have been promoted by nonleft governments, except in cases where labor is very strong. The orthodox neoliberal model, by contrast, has emerged where postwar industrial development was attenuated and where labor unions were weakened considerably by the debt crisis.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Trustees of Princeton University 2008

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Garrett, Geoffrey, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998)Google Scholar; Quinn, Dennis, “The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation,” American Political Science Review 91 (September 1997)Google Scholar; and Dani Rodrik, “Why Is There So Much Economic Insecurity in Latin America?” (Manuscript, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 1999).

2 Adserà, Alicia and Boix, Carles, “Trade, Democracy, and the Size of the Public Sector: The Political Underpinnings of Openness,” International Organization 56 (Spring 2002)Google Scholar; Burgoon, Brian, “Globalization and Welfare Compensation: Disentangling the Ties That Bind,” International Organization 53 (Summer 2001)Google Scholar; Hays, Jude, Ehrlich, Sean, and Peinhardt, Clint, “Government Spending and Public Support for Trade in the OECD: An Empirical Test of the Embedded Liberalism Thesis,” International Organization 59 (Spring 2005)Google Scholar; Garrett (fn. 1); and Ruggie, John Gerard, “International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order,” International Organization 36 (Spring 1982)Google Scholar.

3 Bates, Robert, Brock, Phillip, and Tiefenthaler, Jill, “Risk and Trade Regimes: Another Exploration,” International Organization 45 (Winter 1991), 14Google Scholar; Garrett, Geoffrey, “Globalization and Government Spending around the World,” Studies in Comparative International Development 35 (February 2001)Google Scholar; and Rodrik, Dani, “Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?” Journal of Political Economy 106 (October 1998)Google Scholar.

4 Kaufman, Robert R. and Segura-Ubiergo, Alex, “Globalization, Domestic Politics, and Social Spending in Latin America: A Time-Series Cross-Section Analysis, 1973–97,” World Politics 53 (July 2001)Google Scholar; Rudra, Nita, “Globalization and the Decline of the Welfare State in Less-Developed Countries,” International Organization 56 (April 2002)Google Scholar; and Wibbels, Erik, “Dependency Revisited: International Markets, Business Cycles, and Social Spending in the Developing World,” International Organization 60 (April 2006)Google Scholar.

5 See, for example, Hellman, Joel S., “Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcom-munist Transitions,” World Politics 50 (January 1998)Google Scholar; and Schamis, Hector E., “Distributional Coalitions and the Politics of Economic Reform in Latin America,” World Politics 51 (January 1999)Google Scholar.

6 Edwards, Sebastian, Crisis and Reform in Latin America: From Despair to Mope (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995)Google Scholar.

7 For example, Stallings, Barbara, “International Influence on Economic Policy: Debt, Stabilization, and Structural Reform,” in Haggard, Stephan and Kaufman, Robert, eds., The Politics of Economic Adjustment (Princeton University Press, 1992)Google Scholar; and Evelyne Huber and John Stephens, “The Political Economy of Pension Reform: Latin America in Comparative Perspective,” Occasional Paper 7 (Geneva: United Nations Research Institute for Social Development, 2000).

8 Kaufman and Segura-Ubiergo (fn. 4); and Rudra (fn. 4).

9 Graciela Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Carlos A. Vegh, “When It Rains, It Pours: Pro-cyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,” NBER Working Paper no. W10780 (Washington, D.C.: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2004).

10 Wibbels (fn. 4).

11 See Schneider, Ben Ross, “Organizing Interests and Coalitions in the Politics of Market Reform in Latin America,” World Politics 56 (April 2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

12 For example, Schamis (fn. 5); and Corrales, Javier, “Presidents, Ruling Parties, and Party Rules: A Theory on the Politics of Economic Reform in Latin America,” Comparative Politics 32 (January 2000)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

13 Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), Good Jobs Wanted: Labor Markets in Latin America (New York: IDB, 2004), 127–32Google Scholar; and Rodrik (fn. 1), 1–2.

14 Roberts, Kenneth, “Social Inequalities without Class Cleavages in Latin America's Neoliberal Era,” Studies in Comparative International Development 36 (January 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

15 Kurtz, Marcus J., Free Market Democracy and the Chilean and Mexican Countryside (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004)Google Scholar; idem, “The Dilemmas of Democracy in the Open Economy: Lessons from Latin America,” World Politics 56 (January 2004)Google Scholar.

16 Roberts (fn. 14), 4.

17 Gibson, Edward L., “The Populist Road to Market Reform: Policy and Electoral Coalitions in Mexico and Argentina,” World Politics 49 (April 1997)Google Scholar; Roberts, Kenneth M., “Neoliberalism and the Transformation of Populism in Latin America: The Peruvian Case,” World Politics 48 (October 1995)Google Scholar; and Weyland, Kurt, “Neoliberal Populism in Latin America and Eastern Europe,” Comparative Politics 31 (July 1999), 381Google Scholar.

18 Garrett, Geoffrey and Lange, Peter, “Political Responses to Interdependence: What's Left for the Left?” International Organization 45 (Autumn 1991), 541CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

19 Crafts, Nicholas, “Supply-Side Policy and British Relative Economic Decline,” Economic Growth and Government Policy (London: HM Treasury, 2001), 24Google Scholar.

20 Snyder, Richard, “After Neoliberalism: The Politics of Reregulation in Mexico,” World Politics 51 (January 1999)Google Scholar; and Murillo, M. Victoria and Schrank, Andrew, “With a Little Help from My Friends: Partisan Politics, Transnational Alliances, and Labor Rights in Latin America,” Comparative Political Studies 38 (October 2005)Google Scholar.

21 Schrank, Andrew and Kurtz, Marcus J., “Credit Where Credit Is Due: Open Economy Industrial Policy and Export Diversification in Latin America and the Caribbean,” Politics & Society 33 (December 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

22 Sanjaya Lall, “Reinventing Industrial Strategy: The Role of Government Policy in Building Export Competitiveness,” Working Paper no. 111 (Oxford: Oxford University QEH Working Paper Series, 2003), 13–15.

23 Carla Macario, Export Growth in Latin America: Policies and Performance, with Regis Bonelli, Adriaan ten Kate, and Gunnar Niels (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2000).

24 Schrank and Kurtz (fn. 21), 683.

25 Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, “Costa Rica's Development Strategy Based on Human Capital and Technology: How It Got There, the Impact of Intel, and Lessons for Other Countries,” Journal of Human Development 2 (July 2001), 313CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

26 Dani Rodrik, “Industrial Policy for the Twenty-first Century” (Manuscript, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2004), 2.

27 Clayton, Richard and Pontusson, Jonas, “Welfare-State Retrenchment Revisited: Entitlement Cuts, Public Sector Restructuring, and Inegalitarian Trends in Advanced Capitalist Societies,” World Politics 51 (October 1998), 82CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

28 Rodrik (fn. 1), 2.

29 Our concept of “embedded neoliberalism” also differs from van Apeldoorn's use of the term in the European context. See Apeldoorn, Bastiaan van, Transnational Capitalism and the Struggle over European Integration (New York: Routledge, 2002)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

30 Evans, Peter, Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995)Google Scholar.

31 Alberto Melo and Andres Rodriguez-Clare, “Productive Development Policies and Supporting Institutions in Latin America and the Caribbean,” Working Paper no. C-106 (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank, February 2006), 15. These partnerships run the gamut of economically vital policy areas, from science and technology, to finance, internationalization of the economy, education, labor, and infrastructure.

32 Ibid., 16.

33 Alberto Melo, “Industrial Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean,” IADB Working Paper no. 489 (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank, August 2001), 14–22.

34 Carla Macario, “Why and How Do Manufacturing Firms Export: Evidence from Successful Exporting Firms in Chile, Colombia, and Mexico” (Ph.D. diss., University of Missouri-Columbia, 1998), 220.

35 Melo and Rodriguez-Clare (fn. 31), 55.

36 Costa Rican R&D investment amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 1996, compared with 0.4 percent or less in Argentina, Mexico, and Venezuela, countries at a comparable or higher level of devel-opment. This is still smaller than the R&D investments made by the East Asian developing countries or the United States (in excess of 2 percent of GDP), but it is impressive for a poor Central American nation. See Derek Hill, “Latin America: R&D Spending Jumps in Brazil, Mexico, and Costa Rica” National Science Foundation Division of Science Resource Studies NSF 00–316 (Washington, D.C.: NSF, 2000), 3–4.

37 Eduaro Levy Yeyati, Alejandro Micco, and Ugo Panizza, “Should Government Be in the Banking Business? The Role of State-Owned and Development Banks,” Working Paper no. 517 (Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank, 2004), 34.

38 Clark, Mary A., “Nontraditional Export Promotion in Costa Rica: Sustaining Export-Led Growth,” Journalof Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 37 (Summer 1995), 196Google Scholar.

39 Melo and Rodriguez-Clare (fn. 31), 55.

40 Bruton, Henry, “A Reconsideration of Import Substitution,” Journal of Economic Literature 36 (June 1998), 115–16Google Scholar.

41 Astorga, Pablo, Berges, Ame R., and Fitzgerald, Valpy, “The Standard of Living in Latin America during the Twentieth Century,” Economic History Review 58 (November 2005), 766CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

42 Bruton (fn. 40).

43 Ibid., 917.

44 Sheahan, John, “Market-Oriented Economic Policies and Political Repression in Latin America,” Economic Development and Cultural Change 28 (January 1980), 273CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

45 Frieden, Jeffry, Debt, Development, and Democracy: Modern Political Economy and Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991), 49Google Scholar.

46 Ibid., 47.

47 Inter-American Development Bank, Good Jobs Wanted: Labor Markets in Latin America (Washington, D.C.: IDB, 2004), 233Google Scholar.

48 Etchemendy, Sebastián, “Constructing Reform Coalitions: The Politics of Compensations in Argentina's Economic Liberalization,” Latin American Politics and Society 43 (Autumn 2001)Google Scholar; and Murillo, M. Victoria, Labor Unions, Partisan Coalitions, and Market Reforms in Latin America (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001)Google Scholar.

49 Kingstone, Peter, Crafting Coalitionsfor Reform: Business Preferences, Political Institutions, and Neoliberalism in Brazil (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999)Google Scholar.

50 Balassa, Bela, “Policy Responses to Exogenous Shocks in Developing Countries,” American Economic Review 76 (May 1986)Google Scholar.

51 Other examples range from cement (CEMEX, Mexico), to steel and metallurgy (Techint, Argentina; CVRD, Brazil), and food products (Arcor, Argentina). See Schrank and Kurtz (fn. 21).

52 Garrett, Geoffrey, “Global Markets and National Politics: Collision Course or Virtuous Cycle?” International Organization 52 (Autumn 1998), 798CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

53 Boix, Carles, Political Parties, Growth and Equality (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

54 Garrett (fn. 1); Korpi, Walter and Palme, Joakim, “New Politics and Class Politics in the Context of Austerity and Globalization: Welfare State Regress in eighteen Countries, 1975–95,” American Political Science Review 97 (August 2003)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

55 Remmer, Karen, “The Politics of Economic Policy and Performance in Latin America,” Journal of Public Policy 22 (January 2002)Google Scholar; Cukierman, Alex and Tommasi, Mariano, “Credibility of Policymakers and of Economic Reforms,” in Sturzenegger, Federico and Tommasi, Mariano, eds., The Political Economy of Reform (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1998)Google Scholar; and Wibbels (fn. 4).

56 Remmer (fn. 55), 38.

57 Garrett and Lange (fn. 18), 541; Li, Quan and Smith, Dale, “The Dilemma of Financial Liberalization: State Autonomy and Societal Demands,” Journal of Politics 64 (August 2002), 781CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

58 Remmer (fn. 55).

59 Burgess, Katrina, “Loyalty Dilemmas and Market Reform: Party-Union Alliances under Stress in Mexico, Spain, and Venezuela,” World Politics 52 (October 1999), 107CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

60 Burgess, for example, points out that AD in Venezuela had a role in selecting who would stand for union office, while in Mexico the PRl had solidified control of the CTM (the principal labor confederation) by the 1950s; Burgess (fn. 59), 121,130.

61 Guidry, John, “Not Just Another Labor Party: The Workers' Party and Democracy in Brazil,” Labor Studies Journal 28 (Spring 2003), 89Google Scholar.

62 Levitsky, Steven, “From Labor Politics to Machine Politics: The Transformation of Party-Union Linkages in Argentine Peronism, 1983–1999,” Latin American Research Review 38 (October 2003), 7CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

63 Burgess (fn. 59), 107.

64 Levitsky (fn. 62), 5.

65 McGuire, James, “Union Political Tactics and Democratic Consolidation in Alfonsin's Argentina, 1983–89,” Latin American Research Review 27, no. 1 (1992), 46Google Scholar.

66 Samuel Morley, Robert Machado, and Stefano Pettinato, “Indexes of Structural Reform in Latin America,” Economic Reforms Series no. 12 (Santiago, Chile: ECLAC, 1999 [2006]).

67 It should be noted that by relying on reform indices constructed on the assumption of a single liberal/statist continuum, we employ measures that are biased against our finding of alternative open-economy policy equilibria.

68 Morley, Machado, and Pettinato (fn. 66).

69 World Bank, World Development Indicators CD-ROM (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2005).

70 For example, Kitschelt, Herbert, Mansfeldova, Zdenka, Markowski, Radoslaw, Tóka, Gábor, Post-Communist Party Systems: Competition, Representation, andInter-Party Cooperation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

71 Niemi, Richard, Craig, Stephen, and Franco, Mattei, “Measuring Internal Political Efficacy in the 1988 National Election Study,” American Political Science Review 85 (December 1991)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

72 Ansolabehere, Stephen, Snyder, James, and Stewart, Charles III, “Candidate Positioning in U.S. House Elections,” American Journal of Political Science 45 (January 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

73 For example, Schneider (fn. 11); and Kurtz, Marcus, “Chile's Neo-Liberal Revolution: Incremental Decisions and Structural Transformation, 1973—89,” Journal of'Latin American Studies 31 (May 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

74 World Bank (fn. 69).

75 Deininger, Klaus and Squire, Lyn, “A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality,” World Bank Economic Review 10 (September 1996)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

76 Astorga, Berges, and Fitzgerald (fn. 41), 772.

77 Barro, Robert and Lee, Jon Wha, “International Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Quality,” American Economic Review 82 (May 1996)Google Scholar.

78 An alternative analysis, relying on a dichotomous coding of left versus nonleft executives, produced very similar results. We incorporate the updates to the data set indicated by Philip Keefer, “DPI2004 Database of Political Institutions: Changes and Variable Definitions” (Manuscript, World Bank, 2005); we also corrected an error in the coding of the Chilean case, so that it now properly considers the two posttransition Christian Democratic governments centrist, while the two socialist executives are recoded as left wing. Inexplicably, all posttransition Chilean governments had been coded as right wing in the database. The data set is described in Beck, Thorsten, Clarke, George, Groff, Alberto, Keefer, Philip, and Walsh, Patrick, “New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions,” World Bank Economic Review 15 (January 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

79 For details, see Keefer (fn. 78), available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTRES/Resources/DPI2004_variable-defmitions.pdf (accessed September 24, 2007).

80 IDB (fn. 13), 223.

81 Rogowski, Ronald, “Trade and the Variety of Democratic Institutions,” International Organization 41 (Spring 1987)Google Scholar; and Stratmann, Thomas and Baur, Martin, “Plurality Rule, Proportional Representation, and the German Bundestag: How Incentives to Pork-Barrel Differ across Electoral Systems,” American Journal of Political Science 46 (July 2002)Google Scholar.

82 Beck et al. (fn. 78).

83 Johnson, Gregg and Crisp, Brian, “Mandates, Powers, and Policies,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (January 2003)Google Scholar; Milner, Helen and Rosendorff, Peter, “Trade Negotiations, Information, and Domestic Politics: The Role of Domestic Groups,” Economics & Politics 8 (July 1996)Google Scholar; and Stokes, Susan, Mandates and Democracy: Neohberahsm by Surprise in Latin America (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001)Google Scholar.

84 Beck et al. (fn. 78).

85 Rogowski (fn. 81).

86 For example, Milner, Helen and Kubota, Keiko, “Why the Move to Free Trade: Democracy and Trade Policy in the Developing Countries,” International Organization 59 (January 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

87 Adsera and Boix (fn. 2).

88 Monty Marshall and Keith Jaggers, Polity IVProject: Political Regimes and Transitions, 1800–2002 Data Users Manual (Manuscript, Center for International Development and Conflict Management, 2002).

89 World Bank (fn. 69).

90 Garrett (fn. 52); and Kaufman and Segura-Ubeirgo (fn. 4).

91 Wibbels (fn. 4), 459.

92 All four variables are from World Bank (fn. 69).

93 International Labour Organization (ILO), Key Indicators of the Labor Market, 4th ed, CD-ROM (Geneva: ILO, 2006).

94 World Bank (fn. 69).

95 Ibid.

96 Indeed, partisanship appears to have little direct relationship to orthodox neoliberalism, most likely because both conservative and left governments have pursued it in the region, albeit typically for different reasons. See Brooks, Sarah and Kurtz, Marcus, “Capital, Trade, and the Political Economies of Reform,” American Journalof Political Science 51 (October 2007)Google Scholar. It is likely that other factors may condition the relationship (if any) between partisanship and aspects of orthodox neoliberal reform; at least this has been suggested in recent literature. See Murillo, M. Victoria and Martinez-Gallardo, Cecilia, “Political Competition and Policy Adoption: Market Reforms in Latin American Public Utilities,” American Journal of Political Science 51 (January 2007)Google Scholar; and Nielson, Daniel, “Supplying Trade Reform: Political Institutions and Liberalization in Middle-Income Presidential Democracies,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (July 2003)Google Scholar. While we consider this a fruitful line of research, further analysis of the question is beyond the scope of this paper.

97 Sheahan (fn. 44), 273.

98 Jeffrey Sachs, “Social Conflict and Populist Policies in Latin America,” NBER Working Paper no. 2897 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1989), 4.

99 Astorga, Berges, and Fitzgerald (fn. 41); Bruton (fn. 40), 916.

100 Sanjay Lall, “Competing with Labor: Skills and Competitiveness in Developing Countries,” Issues in Development Discussion Paper no. 31 (Geneva: ILO, 1999).

101 Rodriguez-Clare (fn. 25), 313.

102 We are grateful to Matthew Golder for publishing the stata code from which we developed these figures. For the article on which the code is based, see Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William Roberts, and Golder, Matt, “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analysis,” Politi-calAnalysis 14 (Winter 2006)Google Scholar. The code is found at http://homepages.nyu.edu/~mrg217/interaction.html#code.

103 U. S. Department of State, “Colombia: Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, 1999” (Washington, D.C.: U. S. Department of State, 2000). Available at http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hmpt/1999/380.htm (last accessed January 31, 2008).

104 Johnson and Crisp (fn. 83); and Stokes (fn. 83).

105 Adserá and Boix (fn. 2).

106 Katzenstein, Peter, Small States in World Markets: Industrial Policy in Europe (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1985)Google Scholar.

107 Adserá and Boix (fn. 2); and Bates, Brock, and Tiefenthaler (fn. 3).

108 Plümper, Thomas and Troeger, Vera E., “Efficient Estimation of Time-Invariant and Rarely Changing Variables in Finite Sample Panel Analyses with Unit Fixed Effects,” Political Analysis 15 (Spring 2007)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

109 In both these estimations we corrected for the first-order autocorrelation indicated by a lagrange multiplier test, and we employed robust standard errors. The invariant and slow-moving variables were manufacturing share of GDP in 1980, human capital in 1980, and inequality in 1980, growth over the 1980s, electoral system, partisanship, unionization rates, and their interaction. Using standard errors that assume clustering by country produced nearly identical results, including the size, sign, and statistical significance of the variables of interest. Reestimations of the slightly more parsimonious models (1 and 2) indicated that the results are robust to the inclusion or omission of electoral system (PR).

110 Each of these differenced models naturally includes as a control the lagged level of the dependent variable as the change score is very likely in part dependent upon the antecedent level (that is, at high levels further increases are likely to be smaller). No correction for autocorrelation is made as kgrange multiplier tests indicate its absence. The time trend variable was omitted as the multivariate augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicated stationarity.