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² See Putnam, Robert, Making Democracy Work (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993)Google Scholar; Norton, Augustus Richard, Civil Society in the Middle East (Leiden: E. J. Brill, 1995)Google Scholar.

³ See Yashar, Deborah, Demanding Democracy: Reform and Reaction in Costa Rica and Guatemala (Stanford, Calif: Stanford University Press, 1997)Google Scholar; Luebbert, Gregory, Liberalism, Fascism or Social Democracy: Social Classes and the Political Origins of Regimes in Interwar Europe (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991)Google Scholar.

⁴ Recent exceptions include Collier, Ruth Berins, The Contradictory Alliance: State, Labor Relations andRegime Change in Mexico, University of California Research Series, no. 83 (Berkeley: University of California, 1992)Google Scholar; Collier, Ruth Berins and Mahoney, James, Labor and Democratization; Comparing the First and Third Waves in Europe and Latin America, Institute of Industrial Relations, Working Paper no. 62 (Berkeley: University of California, May 1995)Google Scholar.

⁵ Remmer, Karen L., “Theoretical Decay and Theoretical Development: The Resurgence of Institutional Analysis,” World Politics 50 (October 1997), 57CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Migdal, Joel, Kohli, Atul, and Shue, Vivienne, eds., State Power and Social Forces: Domination and Transformation in the Third World (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁸ Marshall, T. H., Citizenship and Social Class (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1950)Google Scholar; Thompson, E. P., The Making ofthe English Working Class (New York: Pantheon, 1963)Google Scholar; Bendix, Reinhard, Nation Building and Citizenship (New York: Wiley Press, 1964)Google Scholar; Therborn, Goran, “The Rule of Capital and the Rise of Democracy,” New Left Review 103 (1977)Google Scholar; and Rueschemeyer, Dietrich, Stephens, Evelyne Huber, and Stephens, John D., Capitalist Development and Democracy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992)Google Scholar.

⁹ Revisionist historians have taken issue with any simple mythology that ascribes the rise of West European democracy to the work of a single, self-conscious social class, whether capitalists or workers; see Callinicos, Alex, “Bourgeois Revolutions and Historical Materialism,” International Socialism 43 (June 1989)Google Scholar. Classes were internally divided, individual classes were often forced into coalitions with others to achieve political success, and other factors (institutional, international) also shaped regime change. The best works of political economy recognize the complexity of this process. In fact, a careful reading of Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens (fn. 8) reveals a nuanced argument along just these lines. See Ertman, Thomas, “Democracy and Dictatorship in Interwar Europe Revisited,” World Politics 50 (April 1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

But acknowledging the importance of preexisting institutions and the agency of elites does not deny the central role played by social forces in democratic transition. Elites do not operate in a vacuum: their political choices are governed not only by ideals and interests but also by social realities (for example, the economic pressure posed by the threat of capital flight; the political pressure posed by the threat of organized and potentially destabilizing popular protest). And institutions are themselves a creation of the political process, subject to change in the face of political pressure and struggle. Democratization itself is an example of institutional transformation, bought through the struggle of opposing interests that are equipped with different resources and agendas. The question is not so much whether social forces play a key role in the struggle for democratization as which social forces are likely to take up the cause.

¹⁰ Recent studies have challenged this position. See Collier and Mahoney (fn. 4), who argue persuasively that labor played a much more negligible role in the first wave of democratic transition than that proposed by Therborn and others.

¹¹ Guillermo O'Donnell describes the private sector's commitment to democracy as “contingent”; see O'Donnell, , “Substantive or Procedural Consensus? Notes on the Latin American Bourgeoisie,” in Chalmers, Douglas, Souza, Maria de, and Boron, Akko A., eds., The Right and Democracy in Latin America (New York: Praeger, 1992)Google Scholar.

¹² To disprove the hypothesis that cultural heritage determines political disposition toward democracy, Tunisia and Brazil are added to the discussion of labor and capital, respectively. Using Mill's method of difference, comparison is drawn between cases showing overall similarity in cultural endowment (Tunisia and Egypt for labor; Brazil pre- and post-1980s for capital) but possessing a crucial difference in our independent variables, resulting in a crucial difference in outcome. To disprove the hypothesis that economic growth and prosperity determine political disposition toward democracy, Zambia and Brazil are also added to the discussion of labor and capital. Using Mill's method of agreement, comparison is drawn between cases showing overall difference in level of economic growth and prosperity (Zambia and Korea for labor; Brazil and Korea for capital) but sharing crucial similarity in their values on our independent variables, resulting in a striking similarity in outcome.

¹³ King, Gary, Keohane, Robert, and Verba, Sidney, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994), 115–49Google Scholar.

¹⁴ The term “developmental state” was coined by Johnson, Chalmers, MITI and theJapanese Miracle (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1982)Google Scholar.

¹⁵ See Payne, Leigh, Brazilian Industrialists and Democratic Change (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Uni versity Press, 1994)Google Scholar.

¹⁶ See Callaghy, Thomas, “Civil Society, Democracy and Economic Change in Africa: A Dissenting Dpinion about Resurgent Societies,” in Harbeson, John, Rothchild, Donald, and Chazan, Naomi, eds., Civil Society and the State in Africa (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1994), 243Google Scholar.

¹⁷ Gerschenkron, , Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1962)Google Scholar.

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¹⁹ This analysis draws extensively on Robison, Richard, Power and Economy in Suhartos Indonesia (Manilla, Philippines: Journal of Contemporary Asia Publishers, 1990)Google Scholar; Hewison, Kevin et al., eds., Southeast Asia in the 1990s: Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Capitalism (St. Leonards, Australia: Allen and Unwin, 1993)Google Scholar; Robison, Richard, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital (Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 1986)Google Scholar; and Maclntyre, Andrew, Business and Politics in Indonesia (Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 1991)Google Scholar.

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²² Hill, Hal, ed., Indonesia's New Order (Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1994), 57Google Scholar; Bank, World, World Bank Development Report (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), 41–43Google Scholar.

²³ The party also organized upwards of sixteen million citizens in its mass organizations of peasants, trade unionists, women, and youth, and in the 1955 national elections it won 16.4 percent of the popular vote, making it one of the big four parties in Indonesia. May, Brian, The Indonesian Tragedy (Boston: Routledge, 1978), 113Google Scholar.

²⁴ Liddle, R. William and Mallarageng, Rizal, “Indonesia in 1996,” Asian Survey 37 (February 1997Google Scholar).

²⁵ Hewison et al. (fn. 19), 58–60; Robison (fn. 19,1986), 274–76, 315–20; Maclntyre (fn. 19), 3.

²⁶ Country Report, Indonesia, Economist Intelligence Unit (2d quarter, 1998), 19. For accounts of earlier anti-Chinese violence, see “Anti-Chinese Outbreaks in Indonesia, 1959–68,” in Mackie, J. A. C., The Chinese in Indonesia (Sydney: Australia Institute of International Affairs, 1976)Google Scholar.

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²⁹ Country Report, Indonesia, Economist Intelligence Unit (3d quarter, 1998), 13.

³⁰ This analysis draws extensively on Eckert, Carter, “The South Korean Bourgeoisie: A Class in Search of Hegemony,” Journal of Korean Studies 7 (Fall 1990)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; idem, Korea Old and New (Cambridge: Ilchokak, Korea Institute, Harvard University, 1990)Google Scholar; Koo, Hagen, State and Society in Contemporary Korea (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1993)Google Scholar; Fields, Karl, Enterprise and the State in Korea Taiwan (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1995)Google Scholar; Hamilton, Nora and Kim, Eun Mee, “Economic and Political Liberalisation in South Korea and Mexico,” Third World Quarterly 14, No. 1 (1993)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Ogle, George, South Korea: Dissent within the Economic Miracle (London: Zed Press, 1990)Google Scholar.

³¹ Eckert (fn. 30,1990), 40; Ogle (fn. 30), 42.

³² Fields (fn. 30), 31–40; Kuk, Minho, “The Governmental Role in the Making of Chaebol,” Asian Perspective 12, No. 1 (1988), 110–17Google Scholar.

³³ State monopoly of the banking system (1961–80) and state supervision of access to foreign loans and grants endowed it with substantial financial power; Fields (fn. 30), 95–96,121.

³⁴ Hasan, Parvez, Korea (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1976), 26Google Scholar. In 1953 Korea was one of the poorest countries in the world with a GNP per capita of $67 (in 1996 dollars); Song, Byong-Nak, The Rise ofthe Korean Economy (Hong Kong and New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), 60Google Scholar.

³⁵ Scalapino, Robert and Lee, Chong-sik, Communisn in Korea, vol. 1 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1972), 268Google Scholar.

³⁶ Eckert (fn. 30,1990).

³⁷ Koo (fn. 30), 47; Fields (fn. 30), 60.

³⁸ Stephan Haggard and Chung-in Moon, “The State, Politics, and Economic Development in Postwar South Korea,” in Koo (fn. 30).

³⁹ Eckert (fn. 30, 1990), 377–79. The regime's decision to introduce competitive elections came in response to widespread popular demonstrations for democracy in 1986–87. The pending summer Olympic games, scheduled to be held in Korea in 1988, also subjected the regime to greater international scrutiny and heightened the effectiveness of popular protest. The business community was not at the vanguard of this popular movement. See Hamilton and Kim (fn. 30), 119–20.

⁴⁰ Koo (fn. 30), 48.

⁴¹ See Hamilton and Kim (fn. 30), 116; Koo (fn. 30), 47.

⁴² Hamilton and Kim (fn. 30), 118.

⁴³ Koo (fn. 30), 88.

⁴⁴ Kong, Tat Yan, “Origins of Economic Liberalization and Democratization in South Korea,” in Nonneman, Gerd, ed., Political and Economic Liberalization (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1996), 241Google Scholar.

⁴⁵ Koo, Hagen, “The Political Economy of Income Distribution in South Korea,” World Development 12, No. 10 (1984), 1030–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Already by 1978 absolute poverty had declined to 12 percent, down from 41 percent in 1965.

⁴⁶ Savada, Andrea and Shaw, William, eds., South Korea: A Country Study (Washington, D.C.: Library of Congress, 1992), 177Google Scholar.

⁴⁷ This analysis draws extensively on Payne (fn. 15); Cardoso, Fernando, “Entrepreneurs and the Transition Process: The Brazilian Case,” in Guillermo O'Donnell et al., Transitionsfrom Authoritari-anism (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986)Google Scholar; Payne, Leigh and Bartell, Ernest, eds., Business and Democracy in Latin America (Pittsburgh, Pa.: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1995)Google Scholar; and O'Donnell (fn. 11).

⁴⁸ The Goulart regime that existed prior to the 1964 coup was perceived to be unpredictable, incompetent, and inattentive to private sector interests. See Payne (fn. 15), 13

⁴⁹ Cardoso (fn. 47), 143.

⁵⁰ O'Donnell (fn. 11).

⁵¹ This analysis draws extensively on Purcell, Susan Kaufman, “Business-Government Relations in Mexico: The Case of the Sugar Industry,” Comparative Politics 13 (January 1981)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Camp, Roderic, En trepreneurs and Politics in Twentieth-Century Mexico (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989)Google Scholar; Maxfield, Sylvia and Anzaldua, Ricard, eds., Government and Private Sector in Contemporary Mexico (San Diego: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California at San Diego, 1987)Google Scholar.

⁵² See Edwards, Sebastian, Crisis and Reform in Latin America: From Despair to Hope (New York: Ox ford University Press, 1995)Google Scholar; Middlebrook, Kevin, ed., Union, Workers, and the State in Mexico (San Diego: University of California at San Diego Press, 1991)Google Scholar.

⁵³ The phrase is borrowed from Cardoso (fn. 47).

⁵⁴ Beblawi, See Hazem and Luciani, Giacomo, The Rentier State (New York: Croom Helm, 1987)Google Scholar. The dependence of private sector entrepreneurs in nonindustrial ventures (e.g., commerce, real estate, construction) is even more legendary. For a colorful account, see Field, Michael, The Merchants: The Big Business Families of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States (New York: Overlook Press, 1984)Google Scholar.

⁵⁵ Luciani, Giacomo, “Allocation vs. Production States: A Theoretical Framework,” in Luciani, ed., The Arab State (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991)Google Scholar.

⁵⁶ See Metz, Helen Chapin, ed., Saudi Arabia: A Country Study (Washington D.C.: U.S. Department of State, 1993)Google Scholar. Of course, the elimination of mass poverty has not eliminated all sources of social threat in Saudi Arabia. Expatriate workers (largely excluded from the state's social welfare benefits), the Shiite minority (which suffers second-class citizenship), and Islamist activists all constitute potential sources of insurrection. Neither of the latter two groups, however, constitutes a popular majority who might use mass empowerment to overturn the status quo. Expatriate workers are not citizens and so would not be empowered by democratization. See Dekmejian, R. Hrair, “The Rise of Political Islamism in Saudi Arabia,” Middle East Journal 48 (Autumn 1994)Google Scholar; al-Rasheed, Mahdawi, “Saudi Arabia's Islamic Opposition,” Current History 95 (January 1996), 16–22Google Scholar; Wilson, Peter and Graham, Douglas, Saudi Arabia: The Coming Storm (New York: M. E. Sharpe, 1994)Google Scholar.

⁵⁷ On Saudi elites' limited demands for political reform, see Gause, F. Greg III, Oil Monarchies: Domestic and Security Challenges in the Arab Gulf States (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1994)Google Scholar.

⁵⁸ This analysis draws extensively on Middlebrook (fn. 52); idem, The Paradox of the Revolution: Labor, State, and Authoritarianism in Mexico (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995)Google Scholar; Morris, Stephen E., Political Reformism in Mexico (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1995)Google Scholar; Collier (fn. 4); and Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens (fn. 8).

⁵⁹ For explanations of the regime's decision to embrace democratic reform, see Morris (fn. 58), 7–31

⁶⁰ Victor Manuel Durand Ponte, “The Confederation of Mexican Workers, the Labor Congress, and the Crisis of Mexico's Social Pact,” in Middlebrook (fn. 52), 94,101–2. See also Middlebrook (fn. 52), 15; Rueschemeyer, Stephens, and Stephens (fn. 8), 217–19; and Middlebrook (fn. 58), 292, 311.

⁶¹ Collier (fn. 4), 59, 83; Ponte (fn. 60), 100; Lawrence Whitehead, “Mexico's Economic Prospects: Implications for State Labor Relations,” in Middlebrook (fn. 52), 73.

⁶² Middlebrook (fn. 52), 9; Whitehead (fn. 61), 75. ,

⁶³ Murillo, Victoria, “A Strained Alliance: Continuity and Change in Mexico,” David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies Working Paper no. 96—3 (Cambridge: Harvard University, 1996)Google Scholar; Middlebrook (fn. 58), 288.

⁶⁴ Much of this structural weakness was a consequence of (or at least reinforced by) the late timing of Mexican industrialization. Late timing resulted in an immature industrial sector, still overwhelm- j ingly composed of small, geographically dispersed firms. It led to the importation of turnkey projects from industrialized countries whose capital intensity did little to absorb labor surplus. It meant industrialization in the context of global capital mobility, reducing the leverage of local labor. For more, see Middlebrook (fn. 58).

⁶⁵ In 1989, 23 percent of Mexicans still lived below the poverty line and 7.3 percent lived in “extreme poverty.” Edwards, Sebastian, Crisis and Reform in Latin America: From Despair to Hope (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995)Google Scholar.

⁶⁶ In 1995 urban underemployment reached 25.9 percent and official unemployment figures for urban areas clocked in at 6 percent. See The Economist: Country Profile, Mexico (1996—97), 48.

⁶⁷ In 1996 the informal sector was the source ofjobs for between 20 and 30 percent of the Mexican abor force. The Economist: Country Profile, Mexico (1996–97), 10; Country Report, Mexico, Intelligence Unit (1st quarter, 1997), 21.

⁶⁸ Middlebrook (fn. 58), 221. Wage concessions won by the CTM generally translated into higher minimum wages that benefited all workers, not just union members. See also Ginneken, Wounter van, Socio-Economic Groups and Income Distribution in Mexico (London: Croom Helm, 1980), 68–69Google Scholar.

⁶⁹ Ponte (fn. 60), 102.

⁷⁰ A counterhypothesis suggested by an anonymous reader argues that internal trade union democ-acy, more than state dependence or aristocratic position, might be the better predictor of organized abor's support for democracy. But the fact that democratically inclined trade unions have made pacts vith authoritarianism when handicapped by structural weakness makes me skeptical; Ponte (fn. 60), 87, 100; and Enrique de la Garza Toledo, “Independent Trade Unionism in Mexico,” in Middlebrook fn. 52), 159,174. Additional research is necessary to test this counterhypothesis.

⁷¹ This analysis draws extensively on Eckert (fn. 30, 1990); Ogle (fn. 30); Koo (fn. 45); Deyo, Frederic, Beneath the Miracle: Labor Subordination in the New Asian Industrialism (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1989)Google Scholar.

⁷² For historical details, see Eckert (fn. 30, 1990), 352–56; and Hamilton and Kim (fn. 30 118–21.

⁷³ Ogle (fn. 30), 13–16.

⁷⁴ Eckert (fn. 30, 1990), 380; Lee, Jeonge Taik, “Dynamics of Labor Control and Labor Protest the Process of EO1 in South Korea,” Asian Perspective 12 (Spring 1988), 149;Google Scholar Koo (fn. 30), 39; Og (fn. 30), 116.

⁷⁵ For details of this repression, see Ogle (fn. 30); Koo (fn. 30); Lee (fn. 74); and Deyo (fn. 71).

⁷⁶ Koo (fn. 45), 1030; Deyo (fn. 71), 24.

⁷⁷ Wage comparison was made with workers in Europe and the U.S., not Bangladesh.

⁷⁸ Throughout the 1970s only 10 percent of workers in manufacturing and mining earned incomes equal to the minimum living standard set by the government. Only 50 percent made even half of that standard. Ogle (fn. 30), 76. See also Kong (fn. 44), 240. For figures on the failure of wages to keep pace with gains in productivity, see Sohn, Hak-Kyu, Authoritarianism and Opposition in South Korea (London: Routledge, 1989), 234Google Scholar, n. 81. For wage differentials between industrial workers and workers in the service sector and agriculture, see Park, Young-Ki, Labor and Industrial Relations in Korea (Seoul: Sogang University Press, 1979), 102Google Scholar; and Park, Young-Bum, Labor in Korea (Seoul: Korea Labor Institute, 1993), 59Google Scholar.

⁷⁹ Manufacturers routinely ignored even the most basic health and safety regulations; Ogle (fn. 30), 77.

⁸⁰ Manufacturing workers averaged the longest workweek in the world, officially clocking in at fifty-four hours per week (though some argue that sixty hours per week was a more common average). Ogle (fn. 30); Deyo (fn. 71), 98.

⁸¹ Kong (fn. 44), 226–37.

⁸² Lee (fn. 74), 144.

⁸³ This analysis draws extensively on Mihyo, Paschal, “Against Overwhelming Odds: The Zambian Trade Union Movment,” in Thomas, Henk, ed., Globalization and Third World Trade Unions (London: Zed Books, 1995), 201–14Google Scholar.

⁸⁴ Low- and middle-income workers saw their wages decline by an average of 55 percent during the 1980s. See Mihyo (fn. 83), 203.

⁸⁵ Ibid., 208.

⁸⁶ Ibid., 201. For more, see Rakner, L., Trade Unions in Processes of Democratization:A Study of Party Labour Relations in Zambia (Bergen: Michelsen Institute, 1992)Google Scholar.

⁸⁷ This section draws extensively on Eva Bellin, “Stalled Democracy: Capitalist Industrialization and the Paradox of State Sponsorship in Tunisia, the Middle East, and Beyond” (Book manuscript), chaps. 4, 5.

⁸⁸ For example, throughout the 1990s the regime intervened in national wage negotiations to bolster the position of labor and guarantee wage gains that, while not dramatic, far exceeded what labor could command on its own. For more, see Bellin (fn. 87); and Alexander, Christopher, “State, Labor, and the New Global Economy in Tunisia,” in Vandewalle, Dirk, North Africa: Development and Reform in a Changing Global Economy (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1996)Google Scholar.

⁸⁹ For example, the UGTT has refused to publish any of the reports or declarations of Tunisia's Human Rights League (the crusading force for civil liberties in the country) in the trade union newspaper; nor has it ever publicly endorsed the league's work.

⁹⁰ This analysis draws extensively on Posusney, Marsha Pripstein, Labor and the State in Egypt (New York: Columbia University Press, 1997)Google Scholar; Beinin, Joel and Lockman, Zachary, Workers on the Nile (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987)Google Scholar; Bianchi, Robert, “The Corporatization of the Egyptian Labor Movement,” Middle East Journal 40 (Summer 1986)Google Scholar; idem, Unruly Corporatism: Associational Life in Twentieth-Century Egypt (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989)Google Scholar; Goldberg, Ellis, “The Foundations of State-Labor Relations in Contemporary Egypt,” Comparative Politics 24 (January 1992)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁹¹ These included financial subsidies to the union, prestigious political positions for union leaders, and nonwage benefits for workers such as job security, social security benefits, and generous leave policy (maternity).

⁹² See Bianchi (fn. 90,1986) 438; and idem (fn. 90,1989), 138.

⁹⁵ See Marsha Pripstein, “Egypt's New Labor Law Removes Worker Provisions,” Middle East Re port (May-August 1995), 52–53.

⁹⁴ Bianchi anticipated this development as early as the mid-1980s. See Bianchi (fn. 90,1986), 443.