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Seed Burial Physical Environment Explains Departures from Regional Hydrothermal Model of Giant Ragweed (Ambrosia trifida) Seedling Emergence in U.S. Midwest

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Adam S. Davis ,
Sharon Clay ,
John Cardina ,
Anita Dille ,
Frank Forcella ,
John Lindquist  and
Christy Sprague
Adam S. Davis*
Affiliation:
U.S. Department of Agriculture–Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) Global Change and Photosynthesis Research Unit, Urbana, IL 61801
Sharon Clay
Affiliation:
South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, 57007
John Cardina
Affiliation:
Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, The Ohio State University, Wooster, OH, 44691
Anita Dille
Affiliation:
Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, 66506
Frank Forcella
Affiliation:
USDA-ARS North Central Soil Conservation Research Laboratory, Morris, MN, 56267
John Lindquist
Affiliation:
University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, 68583
Christy Sprague
Affiliation:
Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, 48824
*
Corresponding author's E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

Robust predictions of weed seedling emergence from the soil seedbank are needed to aid weed management. A common seed accession (Illinois) of giant ragweed was buried in replicate experimental gardens over 18 site years in Illinois, Michigan, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota to examine the importance of site and climate variability by year on seedling emergence. In a nonlinear mixed-effects modeling approach, we used a flexible sigmoidal function (Weibull) to model giant ragweed cumulative seedling emergence in relation to hydrothermal time accumulated in each site-year. An iterative search method across a range of base temperature (Tb) and base and ceiling soil matric potentials (ψb and ψc) for accumulation of hydrothermal time identified optima (Tb = 4.4 C, ψb = −2,500 kPa, ψc = 0 kPa) that resulted in a parsimonious regional model. Deviations between the fits for individual site-years and the fixed effects regional model were characterized by a negative relationship between random effects for the shape parameter lrc (natural log of the rate constant, indicating the speed at which emergence progressed) and thermal time (base 10 C) during the seed burial period October through March (r = −0.51, P = 0.03). One possible implication of this result is that cold winter temperatures are required to break dormancy in giant ragweed seeds. By taking advantage of advances in statistical computing approaches, development of robust regional models now is possible for explaining arable weed seedling emergence progress across wide regions.

Keywords

Giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida LAbiotic influences on seed dormancyhydrothermal timenonlinear mixed effects modelsregional environmental variationseedling recruitment phenology
Type
Weed Biology and Ecology
Information
Weed Science , Volume 61 , Issue 3 , September 2013 , pp. 415 - 421
Copyright
Copyright © Weed Science Society of America 

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