The object of the paper is to draw attention, for the first time at an actuarial meeting, to the effects of continuing inflation on the proceeds of life policies and to discuss the possibility of devising some means of amelioration.

The course of commodity prices is examined from the beginning of the nineteenth century to the present time, and examples are given of the effects of inflation on policies effected in 1904 and maturing for payment in 1924. Reference is made to the experience of Germany and Austria during the currency debacle of 1922 and 1923.

The paper deals with the types of under-average mortality which may be expressed either as a constant addition or as a fixed percentage addition to A1924-29 ultimate qx.

For various constant and percentage additions, tables are given which show:–

• (a)The extra premiums required, for different classes of policy, in addition to A1924-29 2½ per cent. ult. net premiums.

• (b)The level debts equivalent to certain of the extra premiums.

• (c)The smaller extra premiums required if Double Endowment Assurances are issued in lieu of Endowment Assurances.

The object of the paper is to consider a number of practical points with which the authors have to deal in their day-to-day work in giving advice on Pension Funds.

Among the problems discussed are the construction and use of salary scales together with a development of the theory of salary scales which adds greater flexibility to current practice. The mortality of pensioners and the effect of geographical distribution on such mortality is examined and a practical method of dealing with the mortality of ill-health pensioners is given. Reference is also made to the valuation of returns on death after retirement and some practical aspects of Stationary Funds.

Throughout the paper emphasis is placed on simplicity, both in theoretical treatment and in the practical application.

The results of an investigation into the Mortality and Marriage Experience of the five Scottish Banks whose head offices are in Edinburgh during the period of 1923-1943 are presented. The general lines of the investigation follow those adopted by Mr. Fraser in his similar investigation for the period 1903-1923.

The rates of mortality and marriage have been taken out separately for bachelors and widowers, and rates of mortality separately for married men, wives and widows. The relative ages of husband and wife at marriage have also been examined. Comparisons are made between the rates of mortality and marriage shown in the period 1923-1943 with those given by Mr. Fraser for the period 1903-1923. To ascertain the financial effects of the new rates of mortality and marriage, monetary functions required in the valuation of widows' funds by the reversionary method of valuation have been calculated at 3% interest. These monetary functions have been compared with the equivalent functions deduced by Mr. Fraser for the 1903-1923 period. Finally, a valuation of one of the widows' funds concerned has been made at 3% interest, using Mr. Fraser's tables and also the tables based on the 1923-1943 experience.

Various definitions of mathematical probability are described and commented upon: (i) the classical formulation, based on the ratio of favourable to total “equally likely” aspects of a system; (ii) formulations based on relative frequency in a sequence of trials, or on the limit of relative frequency as the number of trials is increased indefinitely; (iii) von Mises' refinement of this, in which the sequences obey special postulates ensuring “randomness”; (iv) modern revisions of the classical definition, “equally likely” aspects being replaced by an aggregate, and ratio of aspects by relative measure of a sub-aggregate; (v) the approach of Keynes, in which probability is the “logic of uncertain inference,” developed by a symbolic algebra; (vi) the approach of Jeffreys, by axioms and conventions of procedure, based on the principle of indifference and the use of the rule of inverse probability. It is suggested that, whereas in formulations based on relative frequency, frequency cannot be held to afford any explanation of the facts of frequency, in the a priori formulations, on the other hand, any postulates put forward are still very far from explaining to inquiring minds the commonly observed phenomena of so-called chance. It is further suggested that in actuarial applications the nexus between axioms of probability and causes of mortality is especially obscure, with consequent need of caution in adopting and interpreting the more refined modern methods.

By the use of the number of deaths in the Continuous Mortality Investigation and the number of impaired lives in a small sample of recently issued policies an estimate is made of the extent of the data likely to be available from the records of the life offices for an investigation into extra mortality. It is estimated that for several impairments the ratio of actual to expected deaths for all ages and durations combined could be obtained with a standard error of 10% or less, but only the broadest conclusions could be drawn as to the distribution of the extra mortality according to age and duration.

The experience of normal lives obtained by a control investigation by individual cards is suggested as a standard, two policies on normal lives being included for each policy in the special investigation. The possibility is considered of using the data of the control investigation to throw fresh light on some of the mortality problems which cannot be solved by use of the data as at present returned to the Continuous Mortality Investigation.

A brief outline is given of the form an investigation should take and it is suggested that it should also include the investigation of the mortality of certain other special classes including female lives and lives assured for large sums.

The paper is based on the analysis of the causes of death in 10,000 claims which occurred in the quinquennium 1943-1947 in six life offices, three Scottish and three English.

These claims are subdivided into two classes of lives, those who reached and those who failed to reach their expectation.

The causes of death are arranged in most cases as in the Registrar-General's annual review of England and Wales, and are tabulated in age groups.

The increased incidence of some diseases and the decline or disappearance of others are touched upon, whilst special reference is made to the heavy toll exacted by cardio-vascular disease and by cancer.

Deaths due directly to the War, both civilian and in the Services, are included in the total number of claims but are omitted from statistical calculations. This applies also to all deaths of female policyholders. A brief reference is made to the relative mortality from certain diseases in those lives who reached their expectations and those who failed to reach it. It is suggested that greater leniency might be extended in certain types of disorders for which proposers are usually rated up, since deaths from such ailments seldom occur.