In a short article, Saul Smilansky (THINK 60, 2022) provides an argument in favour of the belief in social progress. He considers the ‘probability of losing a child’ to be a pivotal element among various criteria to be assessed in order to evaluate human progress and as this probability has decreased considerably in the modern era, he believes humanity is today in a better situation than in previous generations. In this article, I criticize Smilansky's argument and try to show that his criterion of progress is superficial.