Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T07:12:28.066Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Use of Bayes's Theorem in Clinical Decision Suicidal Risk, Differential Diagnosis, Response to Treatment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2018

J. Kraus
J. Kraus*
Affiliation:
Department of Child Welfare and Social Welfare of New South Wales, V.A.C.C. Building, 70 William Street, Sydney, N.S.W. 2001, Australia
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Among the theories of making rational choices under uncertainty, the one which originated with an eighteenth-century English clergyman, the Reverend Thomas Bayes, and which uses observed evidence to modify prior judgements concerning different possible ‘causes' of the evidence, is logically nearest to the paradigm of clinical diagnosis. A simple illustration of this theorem is the classical Bertrand Box problem (Fry, 1928), and its wider implications for decision making have been discussed by Birnbaum and Maxwell (1960). An example of the use of the theorem in clinical classification has been given by Maxwell (1961).

Type
Research Article
Information
The British Journal of Psychiatry , Volume 120 , Issue 558 , May 1972 , pp. 561 - 567
Copyright
Copyright © Royal College of Psychiatrists, 1972 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Birnbaum, A., and Maxwell, A. E. (1960). ‘Classification procedures based on Bayes's Formula.’ Appl. Statist., 9, 152–69.Google Scholar
Brandon, S., McClelland, H. A., and Protheroe, C. (1971). ‘A study of facial dyskinesia in a mental hospital population.’ Brit. J. Psychiat., 118, 171–84.Google Scholar
Day, R. L. (1964). Marketing Models Quantitative and Behavioural. Scranton, Penna.: International Textbook Co. Google Scholar
Fry, T. C. (1928). Probability and Its Engineering Uses. New York: Van Nostrand Co.Google Scholar
Hirshleifer, , (1961). ‘The Bayesian approach to statistical decision: an exposition.’ J. Business, 34, 471–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maxwell, A. E. (1961). Analysing Qualitative Data. London: Methuen and Co.Google Scholar
Nathan, P. E., Samaraweera, A., Andberg, M. M., and Patch, V. D. (1968). ‘Syndromes of psychosis and psychoneurosis.’ Arch. gen. Psychiat., 19, 704–16.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Oltman, J. E., and Friedman, S. (1962). ‘Study of suicidal attempts in patients admitted to a state psychiatric hospital.’ Diseases nerv. Syst., 23, 433–39.Google Scholar
Sines, J. O. (1970). ‘Actuarial versus clinical prediction in psychopathology.’ Brit. J. Psychiat., 116, 129–44.Google Scholar
Submit a response

eLetters

No eLetters have been published for this article.