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The Predictive Validity of Clinical Ratings for an Extreme Environment

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2018

E. K. Eric Gunderson  and
E. L. Kapfer
E. K. Eric Gunderson
Affiliation:
Special Environments Division, U.S. Navy Medical Neuropsychiatric Research Unit, San Diego, California
E. L. Kapfer
Affiliation:
U.S. Navy Medical Neuropsychiatric Research Unit; presently with Systems Development Corporation, Santa Monica, California
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Extract

The validity of judgments based upon clinical methods such as interviews or projective tests has been persistently questioned over the past 15 years. The disappointing results of clinicians' efforts to predict the professional performance of Veterans' Administration clinical psychology trainees or Menninger psychiatric residents are well-known examples (Holt and Luborsky, 1958; Kelly and Fiske, 1950). Other investigators (Glass, et al., 1956; Holtzman and Sells, 1954; Plag, 1964; Thorne, 1960) also have reached highly critical conclusions with regard to the validity of clinical procedures, based upon their studies in military settings. Eysenck (1952), in particular, has strongly rejected claims of validity for the clinical approach. Hunt (1959), after many years devoted to the problem, reports progress in achieving stable validities by application of quasi-experimental approaches to the analysis of clinical judgments. Meehl (1954), in summarizing research on the accuracy of clinical judgments more than a decade ago, suggested that such predictions often err because the clinician typically does not know what weights to give the available information nor how to combine the various cues efficiently.

Type
Research Article
Information
The British Journal of Psychiatry , Volume 112 , Issue 485 , April 1966 , pp. 405 - 412
Copyright
Copyright © Royal College of Psychiatrists, 1966 

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