Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jn8rn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T12:27:30.990Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Risk and Reform: Explaining Support for Constitutional Convention Referendums

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2021

William D. Blake Open the ORCID record for William D. Blake [Opens in a new window]  and
Ian G. Anson
William D. Blake*
Affiliation:
University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA
Ian G. Anson
Affiliation:
University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD, USA
*
William D. Blake, Department of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, 1000 Hilltop Circle, Baltimore, MD 21250-0001, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Scholars of comparative constitution-making and direct democracy agree that economic conditions affect public support for constitutional reform but disagree as to how. Prospect theory suggests both approaches may be correct, depending on the political and economic context in which voters operate. Fourteen states periodically ask their citizens whether to call a state constitutional convention, making this the oldest form of direct democracy in the United States. We test our theory in preelection polls in two of these states and a survey experiment. According to the results, negative perceptions of economic and government performance increase support for conventions when voters view them as opportunities to correct problems. On the other hand, if a convention represents a chance to improve on an acceptable status quo, voters with positive performance evaluations become more supportive. Our findings contribute to the heuristics literature and inform normative debates over direct democracy and popular constitutionalism.

Keywords

state constitutionsconstitutional conventionsdirect democracypolitical behaviorconstitutional venerationprospect theoryheuristics
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 20 , Issue 3 , September 2020 , pp. 330 - 355
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ansolabehere, Stephen, and Konisky, David M.. 2009. “Public Attitudes toward Construction of New Power Plants.” Public Opinion Quarterly 73 (3): 566–577.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anson, Ian G. 2018. “Partisanship, Political Knowledge, and the Dunning-Kruger Effect.” Political Psychology 39 (5): 1173–1192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barooah, Jahnabi. 2012. “Most and Least Catholic States in America.” Huffington Post, July 12. (accessed October 3, 2018).Google Scholar
Bolsen, Toby, Druckman, James N., and Cook, Fay Lomax. 2014. “The Influence of Partisan Motivated Reasoning on Public Opinion.” Political Behavior 36 (2): 235–262.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 1998. Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 2007. “Reasoning about Institutional Change: Winners, Losers and Support for Electoral Reforms.” British Journal of Political Science 37 (3): 455–476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William Roberts, and Golder, Matt. 2006. “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses.” Political Analysis 14 (1): 63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Adam R. 2010. “Are Governors Responsible for the State Economy? Partisanship, Blame, and Divided Federalism.” The Journal of Politics 72 (3): 605–615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Adam R., and Pope, Jeremy C.. 2019. “Measuring and Manipulating Constitutional Evaluations in the States: Legitimacy versus Veneration.” American Politics Research 47 (5): 1135–1161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold D., Goodwin, Matthew, and Whiteley, Paul. 2017. “Why Britain Voted for Brexit: An Individual-Level Analysis of the 2016 Referendum Vote.” Parliamentary Affairs 70 (3): 439–464.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jeffrey E., and King, James D.. 2004. “Relative Unemployment and Gubernatorial Popularity.” The Journal of Politics 66 (4): 1267–1282.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Colombo, Céline, and Kriesi, Hanspeter. 2017. “Party, Policy—or Both? Partisan-Biased Processing of Policy Arguments in Direct Democracy.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 27 (3): 235–253.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Council on State Governments. 2015. Book of States. Washington, DC. (accessed April 14, 2020).Google Scholar
Davies, James C. 1962. “Toward a Theory of Revolution.” American Sociological Review 27 (1): 5–19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Vries, Catherine E. 2018. Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dickerson, Bradley T., and Ondercin, Heather L.. 2017. “Conditional Motivated Reasoning: How the Local Economy Moderates Partisan Motivations in Economic Perceptions.” Political Research Quarterly 70 (1): 194–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dinan, John J. 2006. The American State Constitutional Tradition. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas.Google Scholar
Dincer, Oguzhan, and Johnston, Michael. 2014. “Measuring Illegal and Legal Corruption in American States: Some Results from the Corruption in America Survey.” Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics. (accessed October 7, 2019).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eidelman, Scott, Crandall, Christian S., and Pattershall, Jennifer. 2009. “The Existence Bias.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 97 (5): 765–775.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Eidelman, Scott, Pattershall, Jennifer, and Crandall, Christian S.. 2010. “Longer Is Better.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 46 (6): 993–998.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elkins, Zachary, Ginsburg, Tom, and Melton, James. 2009. The Endurance of National Constitutions. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Andersen, Robert. 2006. “The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions.” The Journal of Politics 68 (1): 194–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fernandez, Raquel, and Rodrik, Dani. 1991. “Resistance to Reform: Status Quo Bias in the Presence of Individual-Specific Uncertainty.” The American Economic Review 81 (5): 1146–1155.Google Scholar
Greenblatt, Alan. 2015. “Lincoln Chafee's Not-So-Brag-Worthy Record as Governor.” Governing, April 23. (accessed September 18, 2018).Google Scholar
Gregg, Katherine. 2014. “Fung Says Raimondo's Actions Belie Her Words on Ethics, Transparency during Last Televised Debate.” Providence Journal, October 31. (accessed February 19, 2019).Google Scholar
Hansen, John Mark. 1985. “The Political Economy of Group Membership.” American Political Science Review 79 (1): 79–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1996. “The 1994 House Elections in Perspective.” Political Science Quarterly 111 (2): 203–223.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, and Tversky, Amos. 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47 (2): 263–291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kramer, Larry D. 2006. The People Themselves. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Kriesi, Hanspeter. 2005. Direct Democratic Choice: The Swiss Experience. Lanham: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
LeDuc, Lawrence, and Pammett, Jon H.. 1995. “Referendum Voting: Attitudes and Behaviour in the 1992 Constitutional Referendum.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 28 (1): 3–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levinson, Sanford. 2006. Our Undemocratic Constitution: Where the Constitution Goes Wrong (and How We the People Can Correct It). New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Lovett, Kenneth. 2017. “New Yorkers Support Constitutional Convention, but the Opposition Is Growing, Poll Shows.” Daily News, October 6. (accessed October 11, 2018).Google Scholar
Mahoney, Bill. 2017. “Convention Opponents Assail ‘Special Interests’ While Spending Big Bucks.” Politico PRO, August 22. (accessed October 2, 2018).Google Scholar
Malhotra, Neil, and Kuo, Alexander G.. 2008. “Attributing Blame: The Public's Response to Hurricane Katrina.” The Journal of Politics 70 (1): 120–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martineau, Robert J. 1970. “The Mandatory Referendum on Calling a State Constitutional Convention: Enforcing the People's Right to Reform Their Government.” Ohio State Law Journal 31 (3): 421–455.Google Scholar
Matthews, Dylan. 2014. “Here Are America's Most Polarized, and Most Extreme, State Legislatures.” Vox, July 24. (accessed September 18, 2018).Google Scholar
McKay, Robert B. 1967. “Constitutional Revision in New York State: Disaster in 1967.” Syracuse Law Review 19 (1): 207–233.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, Matthew. 2003. “Rational Choice and Socio-Psychological Explanation for Opinion on Quebec Sovereignty.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 36 (3): 511–537.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacheco, Julianna. 2014. “Measuring and Evaluating Changes in State Opinion across Eight Issues.” American Politics Research 42 (6): 986–1009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quattrone, George A., and Tversky, Amos. 1988. “Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice.” American Political Science Review 82 (3): 719–736.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rozansky, Michael. 2017. “Americans Are Poorly Informed about Basic Constitutional Provisions.” Annenberg Public Policy Center, September 12. (accessed August 23, 2018).Google Scholar
Rudolph, Thomas J. 2003. “Who's Responsible for the Economy? The Formation and Consequences of Responsibility Attributions.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (4): 698–713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snider, J. H. 2017. “Does the World Really Belong to the Living? The Decline of the Constitutional Convention in New York and Other US States, 1776–2015.” American Political Thought 6 (2): 256–293.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sniderman, Paul M., Brody, Richard A., and Tetlock, Phillip E.. 1991. Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stephanopoulos, Nicolas O., and Versteeg, Mila. 2016. “The Contours of Constitutional Support.” Washington University Law Review 94 (1): 113–190.Google Scholar
Tarr, G. Alan. 2000. Understanding State Constitutions. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Thaler, Richard H., and Johnson, Eric J.. 1990. “Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice.” Management Science 36 (6): 643–660.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J. 1998. “Changing Rules for State Legislatures: Direct Democracy and Governance Policies.” In Citizens as Legislators: Direct Democracy in the United States, eds. Bowler, Shaun and Donovan, Todd. Columbus: Ohio State University Press, 171–190.Google Scholar
Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, Daniel. 1986. “Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.” Journal of Business 59 (4): 251–278.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, Daniel. 1991. “Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (4): 1039–1061.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, Vivian. 2018. “How 3 Little Letters (I.D.C.) Are Riling Up New York Progressives.” The New York Times, September 11. (accessed October 11, 2018).Google Scholar
Woodward-Burns, R. Forthcoming. The Uniting States: How state constitutional reform guides American political development. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Zink, James R., and Dawes, Christopher T.. 2016. “The Dead Hand of the Past? Toward an Understanding of ‘Constitutional Veneration.‘” Political Behavior 38 (3): 535–560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Blake and Anson supplementary material

Appendix

Download Blake and Anson supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 270.4 KB