Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T19:40:39.277Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Redistricting Cycle, Partisan Tides, and Party Strategy in State Legislative Elections

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Todd Makse
Todd Makse*
Affiliation:
Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA, USA
*
Todd Makse, Susquehanna University, 514 University Ave., Selinsgrove, PA 17870, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

State legislative elections are increasingly shaped by two factors that influence the prospects of winning a majority: the redistricting cycle and partisan tide elections. Winning control of the redistricting process offers the prospect of shaping elections for the next decade, making majority status significantly more valuable than it otherwise might be. Partisan tides, on the contrary, can dramatically alter perceptions of which seats are safe or vulnerable and of whether majority status is obtainable or not. In this article, I examine how the proximity of redistricting and the presence of partisan tides are reflected in the strategies of the party organizations that contest state legislative elections. Using party finance data from 29 states during the period from 1996 to 2010, I find that parties' majority-seeking behavior is more intense in states with legislative redistricting, when redistricting is imminent, and when partisan tides favor the minority party.

Keywords

party organizationsparties and interest groupsparties and electionslegislative electionslegislative politicselectionsredistricting
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 14 , Issue 3 , September 2014 , pp. 342 - 363
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2014

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barrilleaux, Charles, Holbrook, Thomas, and Langer, Laura. 2002. “Electoral Competition, Legislative Balance, and American State Welfare Policy.” American Journal of Political Science 46:415–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Basinger, Scott J., and Ensley, Michael J.. 2007. “Candidates, Campaigns, or Partisan Conditions? Reevaluating Strategic-Politicians Theory.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 32:361–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bishop, Bradford H., and Hatch, Rebecca S.. 2011. “State Partisanship, Perception of State Parties, and Voting in State-Level Elections.” Working Paper.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., Radcliffe, Peter M., and Bartels, Brandon L.. 2005. “The Incidence and Timing of PAC Contributions to Incumbent U.S. House Members.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 30:549–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William, and Golder, Matt. 2005. “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses.” Political Analysis 14:63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2011. “The Midterm Landslide of 2010: A Triple Wave Election.” The Forum 8(4): Article 3.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2000. “Incumbency and the Probability of Reelection in State Legislative Elections.” Journal of Politics 62:671–700.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carsey, Thomas, Berry, William D., Niemi, Richard G., Powell, Lynda W., and Snyder, James M.. 2009. “State Legislative Election Returns, 1967–2003.” Release Version 5.Google Scholar
Clarke, Phillipa. 2008. “When can group level clustering be ignored? Multilevel models versus single-level models with sparse data.” Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 62:752–58.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Clucas, Richard A. 1992. “Legislative Leadership and Campaign Support in California.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 17:265–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clucas, Richard A. 2001. “Principal-Agent Theory and the Power of State House Speakers.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 26(2): 319–338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Katz, Jonathan N.. 2002. Elbridge Gerry's Salamander: The Electoral Consequences of the Reapportionment Revolution. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
D'Aprile, Shane. 2010. “GOP Could Dominate State Redistricting.” The Hill. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/112505-gop-could-dominate-state-redistricting-after-election (Accessed April 4).Google Scholar
Dennis, Christopher, and Widestrom, Amy. 2012. “A Deep Blue Hole? California, the Tea Party, and the 2010 Midterm Elections.” In Key States, High Stakes: Sarah Palin, the Tea Party and the 2010 Midterm Election, ed. Charles S. Bullock III (pp. 51–64). Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Dwyre, Diana, and Stonecash, Jeffrey M.. 1992. “Where's the Party? Changing State Party Organizations.” American Politics Quarterly 20:326–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Francia, Peter L., Herrnson, Paul S., Frendreis, John, and Gitelson, Alan. 2003. “The Battle for the Legislature: Party Campaigning in State House and State Senate Elections.” In The State of the Parties: The Changing Role of Contemporary American Parties, eds. John Green and Rick Farmer (pp. 171–89). Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, King, Gary, and Thomas, Andrew. 2008. “JUDGEIT II: A Program for Evaluating Electoral Systems and Redistricting Plans.” Accessed May 2014 from http://cran.r-project.orgGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Stern, Hal. 2006. “The Difference between ‘Significant’ and ‘Not Significant’ Is Not Itself Statistically Significant.” The American Statistician 60:328–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gierzynski, Anthony. 1992. Legislative Party Campaign Committees in the American States. Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky.Google Scholar
Gierzynski, Anthony, and Breaux, David. 1998. “Candidate Revenues and Expenditures in State Legislative Primaries.” In Campaign Finance in State Legislative Elections, eds. Joel A. Thompson and Gary F. Moncrief (pp. 80–98). Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Gierzynski, Anthony, and Jewell, Malcolm. 1992. “Legislative Caucus and Leadership Campaign Committees.” In Changing Patterns in State Legislative Careers, eds. Gary F. Moncrief and Joel A. Thompson, (pp. 107–26). Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Glasgow, Garrett. 2002. “The Efficiency of Congressional Campaign Committee Contributions in House Elections.” Party Politics 8:657–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Greene, William. 2003. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.Google Scholar
Heberlig, Eric S., and Larson, Bruce A.. 2012. Congressional Parties, Institutional Ambition, and the Financing of Majority Control. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrnson, Paul S. 1989. “National Party Decision Making, Strategies, and Resource Distribution in Congressional Elections.” Western Political Quarterly 42:301–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrnson, Paul S. 1996. “Party Strategy and Campaign Activities in the 1992 Congressional Elections.” In The State of the Parties, eds. John C. Green and Daniel M. Shea (pp. 83–106). Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Herron, Michael C., and Wiseman, Alan E.. 2008. “Gerrymanders and Theories of Law Making: A Study of Legislative Redistricting in Illinois.” Journal of Politics 70:151–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc, Larson, Bruce, and Globetti, Suzanne. 2003. “The Redistricting Cycle and Strategic Candidate Decisions in U.S. House Races.” Journal of Politics 65:1221–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hogan, Robert E. 2005. “Gubernatorial Coattail Effects in State Legislative Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 58:587–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1985-1986. “Party Organization and Distribution of Campaign Resources: Republicans and Democrats in 1982.” Political Science Quarterly 100:603–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 2011. “The Republican Resurgence in 2010.” Political Science Quarterly 126:27–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C., and Kernell, Samuel. 1982. “Strategy and Choice in the 1982 Congressional Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 15:423–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C., and Kernell, Samuel. 1983. Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Kelleher, Christine A., and Wolak, Jennifer. 2007. “Explaining Public Confidence in the Branches of State Government.” Political Research Quarterly 60:707–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kim, Henry A., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2009. “Dividing the Spoils of Power: How Are the Benefits of Majority Party Status Distributed in State Legislatures?” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 9:1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kousser, Thad. 2005. Term Limits and the Dismantling of State Legislative Professionalism. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Krasno, Jonathan S., and Green, Donald P.. 1988. “Preempting Quality Challengers in House Elections.” Journal of Politics 50:20–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LaRaja, Raymond, Orr, Susan E., and Smith, Daniel A.. 2006. “Surviving BCRA: State Party Finance in 2004” in John Green and Daniel Coffey, eds. The State of the Parties (5th Edition, pp. 113–34). Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Leyden, Kevin M., and Borrelli, Stephen A.. 1990. “Party Contributions and Party Unity: Can Loyalty Be Bought?” Western Political Quarterly 43:343–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maas, Cora J., and Hox, Joop J.. 2005. “Sufficient Sample Sizes for Multilevel Modeling.|| Methodology” European Journal of Research Methods for the Behavioral and Social Sciences 1:85–91CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Makse, Todd. 2012. “Strategic Constituency Manipulation in State Legislative Redistricting.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 37:425–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Michael P. 2004. “A Comparative Analysis of Redistricting Institutions in the United States, 2001-2002.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 4:371–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Medvic, Stephen K. 2010. Campaigns and Elections: Players and Processes. Boston: Wadsworth.Google Scholar
Moncrief, Gary F. 1998. “Candidate Spending in State Legislative Races.” In Campaign Finance in State Legislative Elections, eds. Joel A. Thompson and Gary F. Moncrief (pp. 37–58). Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Richardson, Lilliard E. Jr., Konisky, David M., and Milyo, Jeffrey. 2012. “Public Approval of State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 37:99–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenthal, Cindy S. 1995. “New Party or Campaign Bank Account? Explaining the Rise of State Legislative Campaign Committees.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 20:249–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salka, William M. 2009. Reforming State Legislative Elections: Creating a New Dynamic. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Schecter, David L., and Hedge, David M.. 2001. “Dancing with the One Who Brought You: The Allocation and Impact of Party Giving to State Legislators.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 26:437–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shea, Daniel M. 1995. Transforming Democracy: Legislative Campaign Committees and Political Parties. Albany: State University of New York Press.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee, and Zeng, Langche. 1999. “Analyzing Censored and Sample-Selected Data with Tobit and Heckit Models.” Political Analysis 8:167–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stonecash, Jeffrey M. 1988. “Working at the Margin: Campaign Finance and Party Strategy in New York Assembly Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 13:477–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stonecash, Jeffrey M., and Keith, Sara E.. 1996. “Maintaining a Political Party: Providing and Withdrawing Party Campaign Funds.” Party Politics 2:313–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Storey, Tim. 2000. “Election 2000: The States are Crucial.” State Legislatures, September.Google Scholar
Thompson, Joel A., and Cassie, William. 1992. “Party and PAC Contributions to North Carolina Legislative Candidates.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 17:409–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thompson, Joel A., Cassie, William, and Jewell, Malcolm E.. 1994. “A Sacred Cow or Just a Lot of Bull? Party and PAC Money in State Legislative Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 47:223–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Winburn, Jonathan. 2008. The Realities of Redistricting: Following the Rules and Limiting Gerrymandering in State Legislative Redistricting. Lanham: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Wiseman, Alan. 2005. “Partisan Strategy and Support in State Legislative Elections: The Case of Illinois.” American Politics Research 33:376–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Witko, Christopher. 2005. “Measuring the Stringency of State Campaign Finance Regulation.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 5:295–310.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, Gerald. 2004. “Representation in America's Legislatures.” Indiana University, Bloomington and National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA.Google Scholar