Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-06T07:49:27.074Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Legislative Term Limits and Voter Turnout

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Robynn Kuhlmann  and
Daniel C. Lewis
Robynn Kuhlmann
Affiliation:
University of Central Missouri, Warrensburg, MO, USA
Daniel C. Lewis*
Affiliation:
Siena College, Loudonville, NY, USA
*
Daniel C. Lewis, Siena College, 515 Loudon Rd., Loudonville, NY 12211-1462, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

According to reformers, legislative term limits should increase voter turnout by enhancing electoral competitiveness for legislative seats. However, this claim has been largely untested. The only existing study of the effect of legislative term limits on voter turnout, to date, finds that turnout in California did not increase after the imposition of term limits and may have decreased turnout. Yet, it is unclear whether this result generalizes to other states. This study employs a comparative state analysis of both aggregate turnout and district-level turnout rates in state legislative elections. We find that term limits significantly increase voting rates in state legislative elections.

Keywords

term limitslegislative politicspolitical participationpolitical behaviorelectionslegislative electionsvoting behavior
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 17 , Issue 4 , December 2017 , pp. 372 - 392
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2017

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Almond, Gabriel A., and Verba, Sidney. 1963. The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bachrach, Peter, and Botwinick, Aryeh. 1992. Power and empowerment: a radical theory of participatory democracy. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.Google Scholar
Berkman, Michael B. 1994. “State Legislators in Congress: Strategic Politicians, Professional Legislatures, and the Party Nexus.” American Journal of Political Science 38 (4): 1025–55..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boehmke, Frederick J., and Skinner, Paul. 2012. “State Policy Innovativeness Revisited.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 12 (3): 304–30..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 2004. “Measuring the Effects of Direct Democracy on State Policy: Not All Initiatives Are Created Equal.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 4 (3): 345–63..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brady, Henry E., Verba, Sidney, and Schlozman, Kay Lehman. 1995. “Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation.” American Political Science Review 89 (2): 271–94..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cain, Bruce, Hanley, John, and Kousser, Thad. 2006. “Term Limits: A Recipe for More Competition?” In The Marketplace of Democracy: Electoral Competition and American Politics, eds. McDonald, Michael P., and Samples, John. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. 199-221.Google Scholar
Caldeira, Gregory A., and Patterson, Samuel C.. 1982. “Contextual Influences on Participation in U.S. State Legislative Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 7 (3): 359–81..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caress, Stanley M., Elder, Charles, Elling, Richard, Faletta, Jean-Philipe, Orr, Shannon K., Rader, Eric, Sarbaugh-Thompson, Marjorie, Strate, John, and Thompson, Lyke. 2003. “Effect of Term Limits on the Election of Minority State Legislators.” State and Local Government Review 35 (3): 183–95..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 1998. “The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 23 (2): 271–300..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2000. Term Limits in the State Legislatures. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., Powell, Lynda W., and Moncrief, Gary F.. 2006. “The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures: A New Survey of the 50 States.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 31 (1): 105–34..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Kong-Pin, and Niou, Emerson M. S.. 2005. “Term Limits as a Response to Incumbency Advantage.” Journal of Politics 67 (2): 390–406..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Elizabeth M. 1994. “The Three Who Came First.” State Legislatures 20:12–19.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Munger, Michael C.. 1989. “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections.” American Political Science Review 83 (1): 217–31..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daniel, Kermit, and Lott, John R. Jr. 1997. “Term Limits and Electoral Competitiveness: Evidence from California's State Legislative Races.” Public Choice 90 (1): 165–84..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Engstrom, Erik J., and Monroe, Nathan W.. 2006. “Testing the Basis of Incumbency Advantage: Strategic Candidates and Term Limits in the California Legislature.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 6 (1): 1–20..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fenno, Richard F. Jr. 1978. Home Style: House Members in Their Districts. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Francia, Peter L., and Herrnson, Paul S.. 2004. “The Synergistic Effect of Campaign Effort and Election Reform on Voter Turnout in State Legislative Elections.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 4 (1): 74–93..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Francis, Wayne L., and Kenny, Lawrence W.. 1997. “Equilibrium Projections of the Consequences of Term Limits upon Expected Tenure, Institutional Turnover and Membership Experience.” Journal of Politics 59 (1): 240–52..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franklin, Mark. 2004. Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fund, John H. 1990. “Term Limitation: An Idea Whose Time Has Come.” Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 141. http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa141.pdf.Google Scholar
Gaddie, Ronald Keith, and Bullock, Charles S.. 2000. Elections to Open Seats in the U.S. House: Where the Action Is. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
Grummel, John A. 2008. “Morality Politics, Direct Democracy, and Voter Turnout.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 8 (3): 282–92..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hero, Rodney E., and Tolbert, Caroline J.. 1996. “A Racial/Ethnic Diversity Interpretation of Politics and Policy in the States of the U.S.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (3): 851–71..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrick, Rebekah, Moore, Michael K., and Hibbing, John R.. 1994. “Unfastening the Electoral Connection: The Behavior of U.S. Representatives When Reelection Is No Longer a Factor.” Journal of Politics 56 (1): 214–27..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herron, Michael C., and Shotts, Kenneth W.. 2006. “Term Limits and Pork.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 3 (3): 383–403..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbing, John R., and Alford, John R.. 1990. “Constituency Population and Representation in the U.S. Senate.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 15 (4): 581–698..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Highton, Benjamin. 1997. “Easy Registration and Voter Turnout.” Journal of Politics 59 (2): 565–75..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Highton, Benjamin. 2004. “Voter Registration and Turnout in the United States.” Perspectives on Politics 2 (3): 507–15..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Highton, Benjamin, and Wolfinger, Raymond. 1998. “Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Laws of 1993.” Political Behavior 20 (2): 79–104..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, Kim, and Leighley, Jan E.. 1992. “The Policy Consequences of Class Bias in States Electorates.” American Journal of Political Science 36 (2): 351–65..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1989. “Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946–1986.” American Political Science Review 83 (3): 773–93..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C., and Kernell, Samuel. 1983. Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections. 2nd ed. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Karp, Jeffrey A. 1995. “Explaining Public Support for Legislative Term Limits.” Public Opinion Quarterly 59 (3): 373–91..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klarner, Carl, Berry, William, Carsey, Thomas, Jewell, Malcolm, Niemi, Richard, Powell, Lynda, and Snyder, James. 2013. “State Legislative Election Returns (1967–2010).” ICPSR34297-v1. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor]. doi:10.3886/ICPSR34297.v1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kousser, Thad. 2005. Term Limits and the Dismantling of State Legislative Professionalism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kousser, Thad. 2006. “The Limited Impact of Term Limits: Contingent Effects on the Complexity and Breadth of Laws.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 6 (4): 410–29..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Daniel C. 2012. “Legislative Term Limits and Fiscal Policy Performance.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 37 (3): 305–28..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, Arend. 1997. “Unequal Participation: Democracy's Unresolved Dilemma Presidential Address, American Political Science Association, 1996.” American Political Science Review 91 (1): 1–14..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maskett, Seth E., and Lewis, Jeffrey B.. 2007. “A Return to Normalcy? Revisiting the Effects of Term Limits on Competitiveness and Spending in California Assembly Elections.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 7 (1): 20–38..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mayhew, David R. 1974. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Moncrief, Gary F., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. 2004. “Time, Term Limits, and Turnover: Trends in Membership Stability in U.S. State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 29 (3): 357–81..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moncrief, Gary F., and Thompson, Joel A.. 2001. “On the Outside Looking In: Lobbyists' Perspectives on the Effects of State Legislative Term Limits.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 4 (4): 394–411..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mondak, Jeffery J. 1995. “Elections as Filters: Term Limits and the Composition of the U.S. House.” Political Research Quarterly 48 (4): 701–27..Google Scholar
Mooney, Christopher Z. 2009. “Term Limits as a Boon to Legislative Scholarship: A Review.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 9 (2): 204–28..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nalder, Kimberly. 2007. “The Effect of State Legislative Term Limits on Voter Turnout.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 7 (2): 187–210..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
National Conference of State Legislatures. 2014 “Legislators Termed Out: 1996-2014.” National Conference of State Legislatures [cited June 25, 2017.] Available from http://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/members-termed-out-1996-to-2010.aspx.Google Scholar
Niemi, Richard G., Powell, Lynda W., Berry, William D., Carsey, Thomas M., and Snyder, James M. Jr. 2006. “Competition in State Legislative Elections, 1992–2002.” In The Marketplace of Democracy: Electoral Competition and American Politics, eds. McDonald, Michael P., and Samples, John. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. 53-73.Google Scholar
Opheim, Cynthia. 1994. “The Effect of U.S. State Legislative Term Limits Revisited.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 19 (1): 49–59..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oppenheimer, Bruce. 1996. “The Representational Experience: The Effect of State Population on Senator-Constituency Linkages.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (4): 1280–99..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Padró i Miquel, Gerard, and Snyder, James M.. 2006. “Legislative Effectiveness and Legislative Careers.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 31 (3): 347–81..Google Scholar
Pateman, Carol. 1970. Participation and Democratic Theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patterson, Kelly D., and Magleby, David B.. 1992. “The Polls: Poll Trends: Public Support for Congress.” Public Opinion Quarterly 56 (4): 539–51..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pippen, John, Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 2002. “Election Reform and Direct Democracy: Campaign Finance Regulations in the American States.” American Politics Research 30 (6): 559–82..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 1988. Why Americans Don't Vote. New York: Pantheon.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 2000. Why Americans Still Don't Vote and Why Politicians Want It That Way. Boston: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Richard T. 2000. “The Impact of Term Limits on the Candidacy Decisions of State Legislators in U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 25 (4): 645–61..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Prier, Eric, and Wagner, Kevin. 2009. “Running Unopposed: Assessing the Impact of Term Limits on Competition in Florida and Maine.” Politics & Policy 37 (1): 101–25..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 2000. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Shuster.Google Scholar
Ranney, Austin. 1976. “Parties in State Politics.” In Politics in the American States: A Comparative Analysis, ed. Jacob, Herbert, and Vines, Kenneth N.. Boston: Little, Brown. 51-92.Google Scholar
Riker, William H. 1988. Liberalism against Populism: A Confrontation between the Theory of Democracy and the Theory of Social Choice. Long Grove: Waveland Press, Inc.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Hanson, John Mark. 2003. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. Boston: Longman Classics.Google Scholar
Rothenburg, Lawrence S., and Sanders, Mitchell S.. 2000. “Severing the Electoral Connection: Shirking in the Contemporary Congress.” American Journal of Political Science 2 (2): 316–25..Google Scholar
Sarbaugh-Thompson, Marjorie. 2010. “Measuring ”Term Limitedness“ in U.S. Multi-State Research.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 10 (2): 199–217..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sarbaugh-Thompson, Marjorie, Thompson, Lyke, Elder, Charles D., Comins, Meg, Elling, Richard C., and Strate, John. 2006. “Democracy among Strangers: Term Limits' Effects on Relationships between State Legislators in Michigan.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 6 (4): 384–409..Google Scholar
Schumpeter, Joseph A. [1942] 2008. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. 3rd ed. New York: Harper Perennial Modern Classics.Google Scholar
Smith, Mark. 2001. “The Contingent Effects of Ballot Initiatives and Candidate Races on Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (3): 700–706..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 1992. “Legislative Professionalization and Membership Diversity in State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 17 (1): 69–79..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 1993. “Professionalization and Public Opinion of State Legislatures.” Journal of Politics 55 (2): 479–91..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 2000. “Uncontested Seats in State Legislative Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 25 (1): 131–46..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 2007. “Measuring State Legislative Professionalism: The Squire Index Revisited.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 7 (2): 211–27..Google Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 2012. The Evolution of American Legislatures: Colonies, Territories, and States, 1619–2009. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Teixeira, Ruy A. 1992. The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J., Grummel, John A., and Smith, Daniel A.. 2001. “The Effects of Ballot Initiatives on Voter Turnout in American States.” American Politics Research 29 (4): 625–48..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J., McNeal, Ramona S., and Smith, Daniel A.. 2003. “The Effect of Direct Democracy on Political Participation and Knowledge.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 3 (1): 23–41..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uppal, Yogesh. 2010. “Does Legislative Turnover Adversely Affect State Expenditure Policy? Evidence from Indian State Elections.” Public Choice 147 (1): 189–207..Google Scholar