Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T00:30:13.810Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Immigration Politics and Partisan Realignment: California, Texas, and the 1994 Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

James E. Monogan III  and
Austin C. Doctor
James E. Monogan III*
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
Austin C. Doctor
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
*
James E. Monogan III, University of Georgia, 413 Baldwin Hall, Athens, GA 30602, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article demonstrates how the party identification of various demographic groups in California and Texas changed in response to the gubernatorial campaigns of Pete Wilson and George W. Bush. Using aggregated time series of Field Poll, Texas Poll, and Gallup data, difference-in-differences results show that Wilson's embrace of Proposition 187 was followed by significant Hispanic movement toward the Democratic Party in California. Time series analysis substantiates that this action led to a long-term 7.1 percentage point Democratic shift among California's Hispanics. This suggests that state-level actors can influence partisan coalitions in their state, beyond what would be expected from national-level factors.

Keywords

political partiesparties and interest groupsparties and electionstime seriesquantitative methodsmethodologydirect democracypolitical behaviorHispanic/Latino politicsidentity/group politicspublic opinion
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 17 , Issue 1 , March 2017 , pp. 3 - 23
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2017

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Adams, Greg D. 1997. “Abortion: Evidence of Issue Evolution.” American Journal of Political Science 41:718–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allport, Gordon W. 1954. The Nature of Prejudice. Cambridge: Perseus Books.Google Scholar
Alvarez, R. Michael, and Butterfield, Tara L.. 2000. “The Resurgence of Nativism in California? The Case of Proposition 187 and Illegal Immigration.” Social Science Quarterly 81:167–80.Google Scholar
Angrist, Joshua D., and Pischke, Jörn-Steffen. 2009. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Press, Associated. 1991. “Immigrants Protest Veto on English Classes.” New York Times, 11 November. http://lexisnexis.com (accessed 6 August 2009).Google Scholar
Barone, Michael. 2001. The New Americans: How the Melting Pot Can Work Again. Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing.Google Scholar
Barreto, Matt A., Ramírez, Ricardo, and Woods, Nathan D.. 2005. “Are Naturalized Voters Driving the California Latino Electorate? Measuring the Effect of IRCA Citizens on Latino Voting.” Social Science Quarterly 86 (4): 792–811..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bender, Steven W. 2012. Run for the Border. New York: New York University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blalock, Hurbert M. Jr. 1967. Toward a Theory of Minority-Group Relations. New York: Capricorn Books.Google Scholar
Bowler, Shaun, Nicholson, Stephen P., and Segura, Gary M.. 2006. “Earthquakes and Aftershocks: Race, Direct Democracy, and Partisan Change.” American Journal of Political Science 50:146–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box, G. E. P., and Tiao, G. C.. 1975. “Intervention Analysis with Applications to Economic and Environmental Problems.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 70:70–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., Boef, Suzanna De, and Lin, Tse-min. 2004. “The Dynamics of the Partisan Gender Gap.” American Political Science Review 98 (3): 515–28..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brandt, Patrick T., and Freeman, John R.. 2009. “Modeling Macro-Political Dynamics.” Political Analysis 17 (2): 113–42..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Andrea Louise, Wong, Cara, and Citrin, Jack. 2006. “‘Racial Threat,‘ Partisan Climate, and Direct Democracy: Contextual Effects in Three California Initiatives.” Political Behavior 28 (2): 129–50..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmines, Edward G., and Stimson, James A.. 1989. Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Diamond, Sara. 1996. “Right-Wing Politics and the Anti-Immigration Cause.” Social Justice 23 (3): 154–68..Google Scholar
Enns, Peter K., and Kellstedt, Paul M.. 2008. “Policy Mood and Political Sophistication: Why Everybody Moves Mood.” British Journal of Political Science 38 (3): 433–54..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A.. 1998. “What Moves Macropartisanship? A Reply to Green, Palmquist, and Schickler.” American Political Science Review 92:901–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., MacKuen, Michael B., and Stimson, James A.. 2002. The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 1993. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 1993 Annual Report. Dallas: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P., and Abrams, Samuel J.. 2008. “Is California Really a Blue State?” In The New Political Geography of California, eds. Douzet, Frédérick, Kousser, Thad, and Miller, Kenneth P.. Berkeley: Institute of Governmental Studies, University of California, 291–308.Google Scholar
Fraga, Luis Ricardo, Garcia, John A., Hero, Rodney E., Jones-Correa, Michael, Martinez-Ebers, Valerie, and Segura, Gary M.. 2010. Latino Lives in America: Making It Home. Philadelphia: Temple University Press.Google Scholar
Giles, Micheal W., and Evans, Arthur. 1986. “The Power Approach to Intergroup Hostility.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 30 (3): 469–86..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giles, Micheal W., and Hertz, Kaenan. 1994. “Racial Threat and Partisan Identification.” American Political Science Review 88 (2): 317–26..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, Donald, Palmquist, Bradley, and Schickler, Eric. 1998. “Macropartisanship: A Replication and Critique.” American Political Science Review 92:437–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamburger, Tom, and Wallsten, Peter. 2006. One Party Country: The Republican Plan for Dominance in the 21st Century. Hoboken: Wiley.Google Scholar
Hood, M. V. III, and Morris, Irwin L.. 2000. “Brother, Can You Spare a Dime? Racial/Ethnic Context and the Anglo Vote on Proposition 187.” Social Science Quarterly 82 (1): 194–206..Google Scholar
Kelly, Nathan J., and Enns, Peter K.. 2010. “Inequality and the Dynamics of Public Opinion: The Self-Reinforcing Link between Economic Inequality and Mass Preferences.” American Journal of Political Science 54 (4): 855–70..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Key, V. O. 1949. Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Khaligh, Asslan. 2002. “Republican Party's Dominance in Texas and the Hispanic Vote.” In Texas Politics Today, by Maxwell, William Earl, Crain, Ernest, Davis, Edwin S., Flores, Elizabeth N., Ignani, Joseph, Opheim, Cynthia, and Wlezien, Christopher. 10th ed., 116–118. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.Google Scholar
Korey, John L., and Lascher, Edward L. Jr. 2006. “Macropartisanship in California.” Public Opinion Quarterly 70 (1): 48–65..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koyck, Leendert Marinus. 1954. Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1989. “Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 83:1125–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monogan, James E. III. 2013. “Strategic Party Placement with a Dynamic Electorate.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 25 (2): 284–98..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newton, Lina Y. 2000. “Why Some Latinos Supported Proposition 187: Testing Economic Threat and Cultural Identity Hypotheses.” Social Science Quarterly 81:180–93.Google Scholar
Newton, Lina Y. 2008. Illegal, Alien, or Immigrant: The Politics of Immigration Reform. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Nicholson, Stephen P. 2005. Voting the Agenda: Candidates, Elections, and Ballot Propositions. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Peirce, Neal R., and Hagstrom, Jerry. 1984. The Book of America: Inside 50 States Today. New York: Warner Books.Google Scholar
R Development Core Team. 2010. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.Google Scholar
Reinhold, Robert. 1991. “In California, New Talk of Limits on Immigrants.” New York Times, 3 December. http://lexisnexis.com (accessed 6 August 2009).Google Scholar
Rodríguez, Gregory. 1996. “The Browning of California.” The New Republic 215 (10): 18–19..Google Scholar
Sanchez, Leslie. 2007. Los Republicanos. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Sundquist, James L. 1983. Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States. Rev. ed. Washington: The Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J., and Hero, Rodney E.. 1996. “Race/Ethnicity and Direct Democracy: An Analysis of California's Illegal Immigration Initiative.” Journal of Politics 58 (3): 806–18..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Verhovek, Sam Howe. 1994. “Texas Plans to Sue U.S. Over Illegal Alien Costs.” New York Times, 27 May. http://nytimes.com (accessed 20 April 2016).Google Scholar
Weintraub, Daniel M. 1993. “Immigrant Services: Will the Feds Pay Up? (Governors Seek Federal Reimbursement of Immigrant Services Costs).” State Legislatures, April. http://thefreelibrary.com (accessed 20 April 2016).Google Scholar
Whalen, Bill. 2002. “The GOP's California Blues.” Policy Review, No. 111:71–80.Google Scholar
Wolbrecht, Christina. 2000. The Politics of Women's Rights: Parties, Positions, and Change. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Wroe, Andrew. 2008. The Republican Party and Immigration Politics: From Proposition 187 to George W. Bush. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar