Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T05:46:06.799Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Ethnic Change, Concern over Immigration, and Approval of State Government

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Benjamin J. Newman  and
Joshua Johnson
Benjamin J. Newman*
Affiliation:
Stony Brook University, NY, USA
Joshua Johnson
Affiliation:
Stony Brook University, NY, USA
*
Benjamin J. Newman, Department of Political Science, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The popularity and approval of a governor among their state citizenry is a central form of political capital that animates the informal power key to their legislative success and bolsters their prospects for reelection. Within the extant literature exploring the sources of approval of state executives, the lion's share of the work focuses on the deleterious effects on approval of a poorly performing national and state economy. In the present article, we rely on the same logic underlying the economic-centered research—namely, that unhappy citizens blame governors and state governments for their discontent—but focus on the impact on approval of an entirely separate and relatively unexplored domain of life in a state: ethno-demographics. This article advances the hypothesis that citizen discontent over drastic ethnic change in their local environment is politicized as concern over immigration, which in turn serves as a concrete political issue through which personal discontent over increased ethnic diversity is translated into lower approval of state government. This hypothesis is tested within the context of the state of California using pooled statewide survey data. Our analyses demonstrate that growth in the Hispanic population within a respondent's county of residence significantly increases concern over immigration within the state, and that concern over immigration significantly decreases approval of state government across the board, including the governor, the state legislature, and one's local state representatives.

Keywords

state governmentpublic opinionethnic changeimmigration
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 12 , Issue 4 , December 2012 , pp. 415 - 437
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, Christopher H., and Bartels, Larry M.. 2004. “Blind Retrospection Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks.” Working Paper No. 199, Princeton University.Google Scholar
Alexseev, Mikhail H. 2006. “Ballot-Box Vigilantism? Ethnic Population Shifts and Xenophobic Voting in Post-Soviet Russia.” Political Behavior 28(3): 211–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allport, Gordon W. 1954. The Nature of Prejudice. Cambridge, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Barth, Jay, and Ferguson, Margaret R.. 2002. “American Governors and Their Constituents: The Relationship between Gubernatorial Personality and Public Approval.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2:268–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beyle, Thad L. 1999. “Governors.” In Politics in the American States: A Comparative Analysis. 7th ed., eds. Gray, Virginia, Hanson, Russell, and Jacob, Herbert. Boston, MA: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Beyle, Thad, Niemi, Richard G., and Sigelman, Lee. 2002. “Gubernatorial, Senatorial, and State Level Presidential Job Approval Ratings: The U.S. Officials Job Approval Ratings (JAR) Collection.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2:215–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blalock, Hubert M. 1967. Toward a Theory of Minority-Group Relations. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Brader, Ted, Valentino, Nicholas A., and Suhay, Elizabeth. 2008. “What Triggers Public Opposition to Immigration? Anxiety, Group Cues, and Immigration Threat.” American Journal of Political Science 52(4): 959–978.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brody, Richard A., and Sniderman, Paul M.. 1977. “From Life Space to Polling Place: The Relevance of Personal Concerns for Voting Behavior.” British Journal of Political Science 7(3): 337–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cain, Bruce, Citrin, Jack, and Wong, Cara. 2000. Ethnic Context, Race Relations, and California Politics. San Francisco: Public Policy Institute of California.Google Scholar
Campbell, Andrea L., Wong, Cara, and Citrin, Jack. 2006. “Racial Threat, Partisan Climate, and Direct Democracy: Contextual Effects in Three California Initiatives.” Political Behavior 28(2): 129–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canes-Wrone, Brandice, and Marchi, Scott De. 2002. “Presidential Approval and Legislative Success.” Journal of Politics 64:491–509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M., and Wright, Gerald C.. 1998. “State and National Forces in Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 42:994–1002.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chubb, John E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review 82:133–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Citrin, Jack, Reingold, Beth, and Green, Donald P.. 1990. “American Identity and the Politics of Ethnic Change.” Journal of Politics 52(4): 1124–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Citrin, Jack, Reingold, Beth, Walters, Evelyn, and Green, Donald P.. 1990. “The ‘Official English’ Movement and the Symbolic Politics of Language in the United States.” Western Political Quarterly 43(3): 535–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crew, Robert E. Jr. 1998. “Gubernatorial Leadership: Testing a Preliminary Model.” Social Science Journal 36: 15–27.Google Scholar
Crew, Robert E. Jr., and Weiher, Gregory R.. 1996. “Gubernatorial Popularity in Three States: A Preliminary Model.” Social Science Journal 33:39–55.Google Scholar
Decker, Cathleen, and Weintraub, Daniel M.. 1994. “Wilson Savors Win; Democrats Assess Damage.” Los Angeles Times, November 10, 1994, http://articles.latimes.com/1994-11-10/news/mn-61016_1_democratic-party (accessed June 19, 2012).Google Scholar
Delli Carpini, Michael, and Keeter, Scott. 1996. What Americans Know about Politics and Why it Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dixon, Jeffrey C., and Rosenbaum, Michael S.. 2004. “Nice to Know You? Testing Contact, Cultural, and Group Threat Theories of Anti-Black and Anti-Hispanic Stereotypes.” Social Science Quarterly 85(2): 57–280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dometrius, Nelson C. 2002. “Gubernatorial Approval and Administrative Influence.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 2: 251–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durr, Robert H., Gilmour, John B., and Wohlbrecht, Christina. 1997. “Explaining Congressional Approval.” American Journal of Political Science 41:175–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferguson, Margaret Robinson. 2003. “Chief Executive Success in the Legislative Arena.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 3: 158–182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fetzer, Joel S. 2000. Public Attitudes toward Immigration in the United States, France, and Germany. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1978. “Economic Retrospective Voting in American National Elections: A Micro-Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 22(2): 426–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew. 2006. “Take logit coefficients and divide by approximately 1.6 to get probit coefficients.” Online Posting. http://andrewgelman.com/2006/06/take_logit_coef/.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and Hill, Jennifer. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Green, Donald P., Strolovitch, Dara Z., and Wong, Janelle S.. 1998. “Defended Neighborhoods, Integration, and Racially Motivated Crime.” American Journal of Sociology 104(2): 372–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ha, Shang E. 2010. “The Consequences of Multiracial Contexts on Public Attitudes toward Immigration.” Political Research Quarterly 63(1): 29–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, Susan B. 1999. “Governors' Job Performance Ratings and Unemployment: The Case of California.” State and Local Government Review 31:7–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hero, Rodney E. 2003. “Social Capital and Racial Inequality in America.” Perspectives on Politics 1(1): 113–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hero, Rodney E., and Preuhs, Robert R.. 2007. “Immigration and the Evolving American Welfare State: Examining Policies in the U.S. States.” American Journal of Political Science 51(3): 498–517.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hero, Rodney E., and Tolbert, Caroline J.. 1996. “A Racial/Ethnic Diversity Interpretation of Politics and Policy in the States of the U.S.” American Journal of Political Science 40(3): 851–871.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hibbing, John R., and Theiss-Morse, Elizabeth. 1995. Congress as Public Enemy: Public Attitudes toward American Political Institutions. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Highton, Benjamin. 2008. “Job Approval and Senate Election Outcomes in the United States.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 33:245–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hood, M. V., and Morris, Irwin L.. 1997. “Amigo o enemigo? Context, Attitudes, and Anglo Public Opinion Toward Immigration.” Social Science Quarterly 78(2): 7813–9.Google Scholar
Hopkins, Daniel J. 2010. “Politicized Places: Explaining Where and When Immigrants Provoke Local Opposition.” American Political Science Review 104(1): 40–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howell, Susan E., and Vanderleeuw, James M.. 1990. “Economic Effects on State Governors.” American Politics Quarterly 18:158–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iacobucci, Dawn. 2008. Mediation Analysis. Los Angeles: SAGE.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel, Slovic, Paul, and Tversky, Amos. 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelleher, Christine A., and Wolak, Jennifer. 2007. “Explaining Public Confidence in the Branches of State Government.” Political Research Quarterly 60:707–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kenney, Patrick J., and Rice, Tom W.. 1983. “Popularity and the Vote: The Gubernatorial Case.” American Politics Quarterly 64:154–62.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1949. Southern Politics in State and Nation. New York: A.A. Knopf.Google Scholar
King, James D. 2001. “Incumbent Popularity and the Vote Choice in Gubernatorial Elections.” Journal of Politics 63:585–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, James D., and Cohen, Jeffrey E.. 2005. “What Determines and Governor's Popularity?” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 5:225–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Paldam, Martin. 2000. “Economic Voting: An Introduction.” Electoral Studies 19:113–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1982. “Presidential Popularity and Presidential Vote.” Public Opinion Quarterly 46:534–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A.. 1992. “Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy.” American Political Science Review 86:597–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matsubayashi, Tetsuya, and Rocha, Rene R.. 2011. “Racial Diversity and Public Policy in the States.” Political Research Quarterly. http://prq.sagepub.com/content/early/2011/04/22/1065912911401418.abstract.Google Scholar
McGhee, Eric, and Neiman, Max. 2010. “Concern over Immigration and Support for Public Services.” The California Journal of Politics & Policy 2(1): 1–27.Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York, NY: Wiley.Google Scholar
Muthén, L. K., and O., Muthén, B. 2007. Mplus User's Guide. 5th ed. Los Angeles, CA: Muthén and Muthén.Google Scholar
Neustadt, Richard. 1960. Presidential Power: The Politics of Leadership. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Newman, Benjamin J. 2012. “Acculturating Contexts and Opposition to Immigration in the U.S.” Unpublished Manuscript.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newman, Benjamin J., Johnston, Christopher D., Strickland, April A., and Citrin, Jack. 2012. “Immigration Crackdown in the American Workplace: Explaining Variation in E-Verify Policy Adoption across the U.S. States.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 12(2):160–182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, Richard G., Stanley, Harold W., and Vogel, Ronald J.. 1995. “State Economies and State Taxes: Do Voters Hold Governors Accountable?” American Journal of Political Science 39(4): 936–957.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norpoth, Helmut. 1996. “Presidents and the Prospective Voter.” Journal of Politics 58:776–92.Google Scholar
Peltzman, Sam. 1987. “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections.” American Economic Review 77:292–7.Google Scholar
Quillian, Lincoln. 1995. “Prejudice as a Response to Perceived Group Threat: Population Composition and Anti-Immigrant and Racial Prejudice in Europe.” American Sociological Review 60(4): 586–611.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rocha, Rene R., and Espino, Rudolfo. 2009. “Racial Threat, Residential Segregation, and the Policy Attitudes of Anglos.” Political Research Quarterly 62(2): 415–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill, and Fastnow, Christina. 1994. “Comparing Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 47:705–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Robert M., Post, Stephanie Shirley, and Rinden, Allison L.. 2000. “Reconciling Context and Contact Effects on Racial Attitudes.” Political Research Quarterly 53(2): 285–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svoboda, Craig J. 1995. “Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1896.” Public Opinion Quarterly 40:1–22.Google Scholar
Taylor, Marylee C. 1998. “How White Attitudes Vary with the Racial Composition of Local Populations: Numbers Count.” American Sociological Review 63:512–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tolbert, Caroline J., and Grummel, John A.. 2003. “Revisiting the Racial Threat Hypothesis: White Voter Support for California's Proposition 209.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 3(2): 183–92.Google Scholar
Train, Kenneth. 2003. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfers, Justin. 2002. “Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections.” Research Paper No. 1730, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar