Hostname: page-component-7479d7b7d-767nl Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-07-15T22:34:12.592Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Dynamics of Gubernatorial Approval: Evidence from a New Database

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 August 2023

Matthew M. Singer*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Abstract

This article introduces the State Executive Approval Database, a dataset of gubernatorial approval ratings that updates and adds to data previously collected by Beyle et al. In addition to the survey marginals, the dataset presents continuous quarterly and annual measures of the latent level of governor approval that are amenable for time series analysis. After evaluating how survey data availability varies across states and over time, I use the data to evaluate whether governors receive a honeymoon. While new governors do not have higher than expected levels of approval, the public expresses comparatively low levels of disapproval for new governors. This honeymoon is largely restricted to their first quarter in office and only occurs when they are elected to their first term. Governors who take office after their predecessor resigned get a slightly longer and more sustained reprieve from disapproval. Governor approval is also significantly shaped by unemployment levels in their state. These data will provide scholars with new opportunities to study accountability and representation at the state level.

Type
Original Article
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the State Politics and Policy Section of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan. 1995. “What to Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data.” The American Political Science Review 89 (3): 634–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beyle, Thad, Niemi, Richard G., and Sigelman, Lee. 2002. “Gubernatorial, Senatorial, and State-level Presidential Job Approval: The U.S. Officials Job Approval Ratings (JAR) Collection.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2 (3): 215–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlin, Ryan, Hartlyn, Jonathan, Hellwig, Timothy, Love, Gregory, Martinez-GallardoCarlin, Cecilia, and Singer, Matthew. 2018. “Public Support for Latin American Presidents: The Cyclical Model in Comparative Perspective.” Research and Politics 5: 18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlin, Ryan E., Carreras, Miguel, and Love, Gregory J.. 2020 "Presidents’ Sex and Popularity: Baselines, Dynamics and Policy Performance." British Journal of Political Science 50 (4): 13591379.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chappell, Henry, and Keech, William. 1985. “A New View of Political Accountability for Economic Performance.” American Political Science Review 79 (1): 1027.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Claassen, Christopher. 2019. “Estimating Smooth Country–Year Panels of Public Opinion.” Political Analysis 27 (1): 120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Jeffrey, and King, James. 2004. “Relative Unemployment and Gubernatorial Popularity.” The Journal of Politics 66 (4): 1267–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crew, Robert, Branham, David, Weiher, Gregory, and Bernick, Ethan. 2002. “Political Events in a Model of Gubernatorial Approval.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 2 (3): 283–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crew, Robert, and Weiher, Gregory. 1996. “Gubernatorial Popularity in Three States: A Preliminary Model.” Social Science Journal 33 (1): 3955.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred, and Bundrick, Charles. 1997. “Presidential Popularity in Central America: Parallels with the United States.” Political Research Quarterly 50 (4): 833–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dometrius, Nelson. 2002. “Gubernatorial Approval and Administrative Influence.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2 (3): 251–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferguson, Margaret. 2003. “Chief Executive Success in the Legislative Arena.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 3 (2): 158–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gélineau, Francois, and Remmer, Karen. 2006. “Political Decentralization and Electoral Accountability: The Argentine Experience, 1983–2001.” British Journal of Political Science 36 (1): 133–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kenney, Patrick, and Rice, Tom. 1983. “Popularity and the Vote: The Gubernatorial Case.” American Politics Quarterly. 11 (2): 237–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, James, and Cohen, Jeffrey. 2005. “What Determines a Governor’s Popularity?State Politics & Policy Quarterly 5 (3): 225–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kousser, Thad, and Phillipps, Justin. 2012. The Power of American Governors: Winning On Budgets and Losing On Policy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey, and Phillips, Justin. 2009. “How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in The States?American Journal of Political Science 53 (1): 107–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacDonald, Jason, and Sigelman, Lee. 1999. “Public Assessments of Gubernatorial Performance: A Comparative State Analysis.” American Politics Research 27 (2): 201–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGann, Anthony. 2014. “Estimating the Political Center from Aggregate Data: An Item Response Theory Alternative to the Stimson Dyad Ratios Algorithm.” Political Analysis 22 (1): 115–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John. 1970. “Presidential Popularity from Truman to Johnson.” American Political Science Review 64 (1): 1834.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mueller, John. 1973. War, Presidents, and Public Opinion. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Niemi, Richard, Stanley, Harold, and Vogel, Ronald. 1995. State Economies and State Taxes: Do Voters Hold Governors Accountable? American Journal of Political Science 39 (4): 936–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orth, Deborah A. 2001. “Accountability in a Federal System: The Governor, the President, and Economic Expectations.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 1 (4): 412–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Partin, Randall. 1995. “Economic Conditions And Gubernatorial Elections: Is The State Executive Held Accountable?American Politics Quarterly 23 (1): 8195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenthall, Alan. 1990. Governors and Legislatures: Contending Powers. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Simon, Dennis. 1989. “Presidents, Governors, and Electoral Accountability.” The Journal of Politics. 51 (2): 286304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, Matthew. 2021. “It’s NOT the Economy When People Are Dying: Accountability for Household Economic and Health Outcomes During the Pandemic.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties 31 (3): 155–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Singer, Matthew. 2023. “Replication Data for: Dynamics of Gubernatorial Approval: Evidence from a New Database.” UNC Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:wiM6gjYFu5zebH5UOHVVcQ==[fileUNF]. https://doi.org/10.15139/S3/QHHQEF.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James. 1976. “Public Support for American Presidents: A Cyclical Model.” Public Opinion Quarterly 40 (1): 121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James. 1991. Public Opinion in America: Moods, Cycles, and Swings. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Stimson, James. 2018. “The Dyad Ratios Algorithm for Estimating Latent Public Opinion: Estimation, Testing, and Comparison to Other Approaches.” Bulletin of Sociological Methodology/Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique 137–138 (1): 201–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolak, Jennifer, and Parinandi, Srinivas. 2022. “Does the Public Hold Governors Accountable for Policy Outcomes?Political Research Quarterly 75 (4): 10511064.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Singer supplementary material

Singer supplementary material

Download Singer supplementary material(File)
File 28.6 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Singer Dataset

Link