Hostname: page-component-7b9c58cd5d-dlb68 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-03-16T03:32:17.105Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Constituency Congruency and Candidate Competition in Primary Elections for the U.S. House

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Jamie Carson ,
Michael H. Crespin ,
Carrie P. Eaves  and
Emily O. Wanless
Jamie Carson
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Athens, USA
Michael H. Crespin
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Athens, USA
Carrie P. Eaves
Affiliation:
University of Georgia, Athens, USA
Emily O. Wanless*
Affiliation:
Augustana College, Sioux Falls, SD, USA
*
Emily O. Wanless, Augustana College, 2001 South Summit Avenue, Sioux Falls, SD 57197, USA Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Previous research has largely concluded that House elections have become less competitive in the modern era. Our research examines one area where we expect to observe more competition—namely, primary elections. In this article, we investigate when and where a state legislator will emerge to run in a congressional primary. All else equal, we expect that state legislators who can carry a large portion of their old state reelection constituency to the “geographic” congressional constituency will be more likely to emerge and receive a higher vote share in the election. Using geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, we are able to derive a measure of constituency congruency by focusing on the degree of intersection between state legislative and congressional districts. Our results indicate that state legislators are more likely to emerge in a primary if constituency congruency is high, especially in open seat contests. Congruency does not appear to provide an electoral advantage at the polls.

Keywords

federal/stateGIS/spatial analysislegislative electionsprimary electionsredistricting
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 12 , Issue 2 , June 2012 , pp. 127 - 145
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ansolabehere, Stephen, Mark Hansen, J., Hirano, Shigeo, and Snyder, James M. Jr. 2006. “The Decline of Competition in U.S. Primary Elections, 1908–2004.” In The Marketplace of Democracy, eds. Michael McDonald and John Samples. Brookings Press.Google Scholar
Ansolabehere, Stephen, Snyder, James M. Jr., and Charles Stewart II., I. 2000. “Old Voters, New Voters, and the Personal Vote: Using Redistricting to Measure the Incumbency Advantage.” American Journal of Political Science 44:17–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banks, Jeffrey, and Roderick Kiewiet, D.. 1989. “Explaining Patterns of Candidate Competition in Congressional Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 33:997–1015.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bianco, William T. 1984. “Strategic Decisions on Candidacy in U.S. Congressional Districts.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 9:351–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Black, Gordon. 1972. “A Theory of Political Ambition: Career Choices and the Role of Structural Incentives.” American Political Science Review 66:1260–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canon, David T. 1990. Actors, Athletes, and Astronauts: Political Amateurs in the United States Congress. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M., Berry, William D., Niemi, Richard G., and Powell, Lynda W.. State Legislative Election Returns, 1967–2003, Release Version 5.Google Scholar
Carson, Jamie L., Michael, , Crespin, H., Eaves, Carrie, and Wanless, Emily. 2011. “Constituency Congruency and Candidate Competition in U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 36(3):461–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carson, Jamie L., Crespin, Michael H., Finocchiaro, Charles J., and Rohde, David W.. 2007. “Redistricting and Party Polarization in the U.S. House of Representatives.” American Politics Research 35:878–905.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crespin, Michael H. 2005. “A Spatial Analysis of Congressional Redistricting, 2000–2002.” Political Analysis 13 (Summer 2005): 253–60.Google Scholar
Darmofal, David. 2006. “The Political Geography of Macro-Level Turnout in American Political Development.” Political Geography 25:123–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Desposato Scott, W., and Petrocik, John, R.. 2003. “The Variable Incumbency Advantage: New Voters, Redistricting, and the Personal Vote.” American Journal of Political Science 47:18–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engstrom, Erik J. 2006. “Stacking the States, Stacking the House: The Politics of Congressional Redistricting in the 19th Century.” American Political Science Review 100 (August 2006): 419–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ezra, Marni. 2001. “The Benefits and Burdens of Congressional Primary Elections.” In Congressional Primaries and the Politics of Representation, eds. Galderisi, Peter F., Ezra, Marni, and Lyons, Michael. New York: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Federal Elections Commission. 2008. “Congressional Candidates and Committees.” http://www.fec.gov/pdf/candgui.pdfGoogle Scholar
Fenno, Richard F. Jr. 1978. Home Style: House Members in Their Districts. New York: Harper Collins Publishers.Google Scholar
Francis, Wayne L., and Kenny, Lawrence W.. 2000. Up the Political Ladder. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Gaddie, Ronald Keith, and Bullock, Charles S. III 2000. Elections to Open Seats in the U.S. House: Where the Action Is. New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Gimpel, James G., Frances, , Lee, E., and Kaminski, Joshua. 2006. “The Political Geography of Campaign Contributions in American Politics.” Journal of Politics 68:626–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gimpel, James G., Frances, , Lee, E., and Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna. 2008. “The Check is in the Mail: Interdistrict Funding Flows in Congressional Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 52:373–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodliffe, Jay, and Magleby, David B.. 2001. “Campaign Finance in U.S. House Primary and General Elections.” In Congressional Primaries and the Politics of Representation, eds. Galderisi, Peter F., Ezra, Marni, and Lyons, Michael. New York: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Hayes, Danny, and McKee, Seth C.. 2009. “The Participatory Effects of Redistricting.” American Journal of Political Science 53:1006–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heckman, James J. 1979. “Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error.” Econometrica 47:153–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrnson, Paul S., and Gimpel, James G.. 1995. “District Conditions and Primary Divisiveness in Congressional Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 48:117–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hood, M. V. III, and McKee, Seth. 2009. “What Made Carolina Blue? In-Migration and the 2008 North Carolina Presidential Vote.” American Politics Research 38:266–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1989. “Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946–1986.” American Political Science Review 83:773–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 2009. The Politics of Congressional Elections. 7th ed. New York: Pearson Longman.Google Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C., and Kernell, Samuel. 1983. Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections. 2nd ed. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Krasno, Jonathan S., and Green, Donald Philip. 1988. “Preempting Quality Challengers in House Elections.” Journal of Politics 50:920–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lazarus, Jeffrey. 2006. “Term Limits' Multiple Effects on State Legislators' Career Decisions.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 6 (Winter 2006):357–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maestas, Cherie D., and Rugeley, Cynthia R.. 2008. “Assessing the ‘Experience Bonus’ Through Examining Strategic Entry, Candidate Quality, and Campaign Receipts in U.S. House Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 52:520–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maestas, Cherie D., Fulton, Sarah A., Maisel, L. Sandy, and Stone, Walter J.. 2006. “When to Risk It? Institutions, Ambitions, and the Decision to Run for the U.S. House.” American Political Science Review 100 (May 2006):195–208.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maisel, L. Sandy, and Stone, Walter, J.. 1997. “Determinants of Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections: An Exploratory Study.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 22:79–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maisel, L. Sandy, and Stone, Walter, J.. 2001. “Primary Elections as a Deterrence to Candidacy for the U.S. House of Representatives.” In Congressional Primaries and the Politics of Representation, eds. Galderisi, Peter F., Ezra, Marni, and Lyons, Michael. New York: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers.Google Scholar
Maisel, L. Sandy. 1982. From Obscurity to Oblivion: Congressional Primary Elections in 1978. Knoxville: University of Tennessee Press.Google Scholar
Powell, Richard J. 2000. “The Impact of Term Limits on the Candidacy Decisions of State Legislators in U.S. House Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 25:645–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rohde, David W. 1979. “Risk Bearing and Progressive Ambition: The Case of Members of the United States House of Representatives.” American Journal of Political Science 23:1–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rush, Mark E. 1992. “The Variability of Partisanship and Turnout: Implications for Gerrymandering Analysis and Representation Theory.” American Politics Research 20:99–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rush, Mark E. 1993. Does Redistricting Make a Difference? Baltimore: Johns Hopkins.Google Scholar
Rush, Mark E. 2000. “Redistricting and Partisan Fluidity: Do We Really Know a Gerrymander When We See One?” Political Geography 19:249–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schlesinger, Joseph A. 1966. Ambition and Politics: Political Careers in the United States. Chicago, IL: Rand McNally.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Lee, and Zeng, Langche. 1999. “Analyzing Censored and Sample-Selected Data with Tobit and Heckit Models.” Political Analysis 8:167–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill, and Hamm, Keith. 2005. 101 Chambers: Congress, State Legislatures, and the Future of Legislative Studies. Columbus: Ohio State University Press.Google Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 1988. “Career Opportunities and Membership Stability in Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 13:65–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 1989. “Challengers in U.S. Senate Elections.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 14:531–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 2007. “Measuring State Legislative Professionalism: The Squire Index Revisited.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 7 (Summer 2007):211–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steen Jennifer, A. 2006. “The Impact of State Legislative Term Limits on the Supply of Congressional Candidates.” State Politics and Policy Quarterly 6:430–47.Google Scholar
Stone, Walter J., Sandy Maisel, L., and Maestas, Cherie D.. 2004. “Quality Counts: Extending the Strategic Politician Model of Incumbent Deterrence.” American Journal of Political Science 48:479–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stone, Walter J., and Sandy Maisel, L.. 2003. “The Not-so-Simple Calculus of Winning: Potential U.S. Candidates' Nomination and General Election Prospects.” Journal of Politics 65:951–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Taylor, Andrew J., and Boatright, Robert G.. 2005. “The Personal and the Political in Repeat Congressional Candidacies.” Political Research Quarterly 58:599–607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar