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Is Four Twice as Nice as Two? A Natural Experiment on Electoral Effects of Term Length

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Brian J. Gaines ,
Timothy P. Nokken  and
Collin Groebe
Brian J. Gaines*
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana, USA
Timothy P. Nokken
Affiliation:
Texas Tech University, Lubbock, USA
Collin Groebe
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Urbana, USA
*
Brian J. Gaines, University of Illinois, 1007 W. Nevada St., Urbana, IL 61801, USA Email: [email protected]
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Abstract

In Illinois and Texas, senate elections return members to serve terms of different length. Because term length schedules are randomized, these states provide a natural experiment. Cross-sectional comparison of chambers requires statistical controls for myriad factors that distinguish cases (chambers or periods). These two chambers, by contrast, produce direct evidence of term length's impact on electoral behavior. We test hypotheses about term length's impact on candidacies, campaign expenditures, and voter participation with data from 1968 to 2010. Surprisingly, there is little evidence of any significant differences between contests for two-year and four-year terms.

Keywords

comparative legislatureselectoral systemsfield experimentlegislative electionsquantitative methods
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 12 , Issue 1 , March 2012 , pp. 43 - 57
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2012

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