Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T13:57:47.442Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Evaluating Policy Representation with Dynamic MRP Estimates: Direct Democracy and Same-Sex Relationship Policies in the United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Daniel C. Lewis  and
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Daniel C. Lewis*
Affiliation:
Siena College, Loudonville, NY, USA
Matthew L. Jacobsmeier
Affiliation:
West Virginia University, Morgantown, WA, USA
*
Daniel C. Lewis, Siena College, 515 Loudon Rd., Loudonville, NY 12211-1462, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Does direct democracy strengthen popular control of public policy in the United States? A major challenge in evaluating policy representation is the measurement of state-level public opinion and public policy. Although recent studies of policy responsiveness and congruence have provided improved measures of public opinion using multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) techniques, these analyses are limited by their static nature and cross-sectional design. Issue attitudes, unlike more general political orientations, often vary considerably over time. Unless the dynamics of issue-specific public opinion are appropriately incorporated into the analyses, tests of policy responsiveness and congruence may be misleading. Thus, we assess the degree of policy representation in direct democracy states regarding same-sex relationship recognition policies using dynamic models of policy adoption and congruence that employ dynamic MRP estimates of attitudes toward same-sex marriage. We find that direct democracy institutions increase both policy responsiveness and congruence with issue-specific public opinion.

Keywords

direct democracypolitical behaviorissue preferencespublic opinionpolitics of sexualityidentity/group politicsrepresentationsame-sex marriagepublic policymultilevel modelsquantitative methodsmethodology
Type
Research Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 17 , Issue 4 , December 2017 , pp. 441 - 464
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2017

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achen, Christopher H. 1978. “Measuring Representation.” American Journal of Political Science 22 (3): 475–510..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2002. “Direct Democracy and the Link between Public Opinion and State Abortion Policy.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2 (4): 372–87..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berry, Frances Stokes, and Berry, William D.. 1990. “State Lottery Adoptions as Policy Innovations: An Event History Analysis.” American Political Science Review 84 (2): 395–415..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berry, William D., Ringquist, Evan J., Fording, Richard C., and Hanson, Russell L.. 1998. “Measuring Citizen and Government Ideology in the American States, 1960–93.” American Journal of Political Science 42 (1): 327–48..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bishin, Benjamin G., Hayes, Thomas J., Incantalupo, Matthew B., and Smith, Charles Anthony. 2015. “Opinion Backlash and Public Attitudes: Are Political Advances in Gay Rights Counterproductive?” American Journal of Political Science 60 (3): 625–48..Google Scholar
Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 2004. “Measuring the Effects of Direct Democracy on State Policy: Not All Initiatives are Created Equal.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 4 (3): 345–63..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford S.. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brewer, Paul R., and Wilcox, Clyde. 2005. “Trends: Same-Sex Marriage and Civil Unions.” The Public Opinion Quarterly 69 (4): 599–616..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burden, Barry C. 2005. “Institutions and Policy Representation in the States.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 5 (4): 373–93..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buttice, Matthew K., and Highton, Benjamin. 2013. “How Does Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Perform with Conventional National Surveys?” Political Analysis 21 (4): 449–67..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Camobreco, John F. 1998. “Preferences, Fiscal Policies, and the Initiative Process.” The Journal of Politics 60 (3): 819–29..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1972. “Up and Down with Ecology—The ‘Issue-Attention Cycle.‘” Public Interest 28:38–50.Google Scholar
Edelman, Murray J. 1971. Politics as Symbolic Action: Mass Arousal and Quiescence. Chicago: Markham Publishing.Google Scholar
Enns, Peter K., and Koch, Julianna. 2013. “Public Opinion in the U.S. States: 1956 to 2010.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 13 (3): 349–72..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P.. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P.. 2006. “Public Opinion in the States: A Quarter Century of Change and Stability.” In Public Opinion in the States, edited by Cohen, Jeffrey E., 229–253. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Fejes, Fred. 2008. Gay Rights and Moral Panic: The Origins of America's Debate on Homosexuality. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Flores, Andrew R. 2014. National Trends in Public Opinion on LGBT Rights in the United States. Los Angeles, CA: The Williams Institute.Google Scholar
Gates, Gary J., and Newport, Frank. 2013. “LGBT Percentage Highest in D.C., Lowest in North Dakota.” Gallup. http://news.gallup.com/poll/160517/lgbt-percentage-highest-lowest-north-dakota.aspx.Google Scholar
Gerber, Elisabeth R. 1996. “Legislative Response to the Threat of Popular Initiatives.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (1): 99–128..Google Scholar
Gerber, Elisabeth R. 1999. The Populist Paradox: Interest Group Influence and the Promise of Direct Legislation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Golder, Matt, and Stramski, Jacek. 2010. “Ideological Congruence and Electoral Institutions.” American Journal of Political Science 54 (1): 90–106..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, Virginia, Lowery, David, Fellowes, Matthew, and McAtee, Andrea. 2004. “Public Opinion, Public Policy, and Organized Interests in the American States.” Political Research Quarterly 57 (3): 411–20..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haider-Markel, Donald P. 2001. “Policy Diffusion as a Geographic Expansion of the Scope of Political Conflict: Same-Sex Marriage Bans in the 1990s.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 1 (1): 2–26..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haider-Markel, Donald P., Querze, Alana, and Lindaman, Kara. 2007. “Lose, Win, or Draw? A Reexamination of Direct Democracy and Minority Rights.” Political Research Quarterly 60 (2): 304–14..Google Scholar
Haskell, John. 2001. Direct Democracy or Representative Government? Dispelling the Populist Myth. Boulder: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Hill, Kim Quaile, and Hinton-Anderson, Angela. 1995. “Pathways of Representation: A Causal Analysis of Public Opinion-Policy Linkages.” American Journal of Political Science 39 (4): 924–35..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacoby, William G., and Schneider, Saundra K.. 2009. “A New Measure of Policy Spending Priorities in the American States.” Political Analysis 17 (1): 1–24..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kastellec, Jonathan, Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2010. “Estimating State Public Opinion with Multi-level Regression and Poststratification using R.” Unpublished manuscript, Princeton University.Google Scholar
Key, V. O. 1961. Public Opinion and American Democracy. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.Google Scholar
Klarner, Carl E. 2014. “Klarner Politics.” Cited May 12. http://www.indstate.edu/polisci/klarnerpolitics.htm.Google Scholar
Kreitzer, Rebecca J., Hamilton, Allison J., and Tolbert, Caroline J.. 2014. “Does Policy Adoption Change Opinions on Minority Rights? The Effects of Legalizing Same-Sex Marriage.” Political Research Quarterly 67 (4): 795–808..Google Scholar
Lascher, Edward L. J. R., Hagen, Michael G., and Rochlin, Steven A.. 1996. “Gun behind the Door? Ballot Initiatives, State Policies and Public Opinion.” The Journal of Politics 58 (3): 760–75..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2009a. “Gay Rights in the States: Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness.” American Political Science Review 103 (3): 367–86..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2009b. “How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in the States?” American Journal of Political Science 53 (1): 107–21..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2012. “The Democratic Deficit in the States.” American Journal of Political Science 56 (1): 148–66..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leemann, Lucas, and Wasserfallen, Fabio. 2016. “The Democratic Effect of Direct Democracy.” American Political Science Review 110 (4): 750–62..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Daniel C. 2011a. “Bypassing the Representational Filter? Minority Rights Policies under Direct Democracy Institutions in the U.S. States.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 11 (2): 198–222..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Daniel C. 2011b. “Direct Democracy and Minority Rights: Same-Sex Marriage Bans in the U.S. States.” Social Science Quarterly 92 (2): 364–83..Google Scholar
Lewis, Daniel C. 2013. Direct Democracy and Minority Rights: A Critical Assessment of the Tyranny of the Majority in the American States. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Daniel C., Schneider, Saundra K., and Jacoby, William G.. 2015. “The Impact of Direct Democracy on State Spending Priorities.” Electoral Studies 40:531–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Daniel C., Wood, Frederick S., and Jacobsmeier, Matthew L.. 2014. “Public Opinion and Judicial Behavior in Direct Democracy Systems: Gay Rights in the American States.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 14 (4): 367–88..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lupia, Arthur, Krupnikov, Yanna, Levine, Adam Seth, Piston, Spencer, and Hagen-Jamar, Alexander Von. 2010. “Why State Constitutions Differ in Their Treatment of Same-Sex Marriage.” The Journal of Politics 72 (4): 1222–35..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maestas, Cherie. 2000. “Professional Legislatures and Ambitious Politicians: Policy Responsiveness of State Institutions.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 25 (4): 663–90..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manweller, Mathew. 2004. The People vs. the Courts: Initiative Elites, Judicial Review and Direct Democracy in the American Legal System. Bethesda: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Matsusaka, John G. 1995. “Fiscal Effects of the Voter Initiative: Evidence from the Last 30 Years.” Journal of Political Economy 103 (3): 587–623..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matsusaka, John G. 2001. “Problems with a Methodology Used to Test the Responsiveness of Policy to Public Opinion in Initiative States.” The Journal of Politics 63 (4): 1250–63..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matsusaka, John G. 2010. “Popular Control of Public Policy: A Quantitative Approach.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5 (2): 133–67..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matsusaka, John G., and McCarty, Nolan M.. 2001. “Political Resource Allocation: Benefits and Costs of Voter Initiatives.” Journal of Law Economics & Organization 17 (2): 413–48..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McClosky, Herbert, and Brill, Alida. 1983. Dimensions of Tolerance: What Americans Believe about Civil Liberties. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Monogan, James, Gray, Virginia, and Lowery, David. 2009. “Public Opinion, Organized Interests, and Policy Congruence in Initiative and Noninitiative U.S. States.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 9 (3): 304–24..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacheco, Julianna. 2011. “Using National Surveys to Measure Dynamic State Public Opinion: A Guideline for Scholars and an Application.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 11 (4): 415–39..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacheco, Julianna. 2013. “The Thermostatic Model of Responsiveness in the American States.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 13 (3): 306–32..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacheco, Julianna. 2014. “Measuring and Evaluating Changes in State Opinion across Eight Issues.” American Politics Research 42 (6): 986–1009..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Park, David K., Gelman, Andrew, and Bafumi, Joseph. 2004. “Bayesian Multilevel Estimation with Poststratification: State-Level Estimates from National Polls.” Political Analysis 12 (4): 375–85..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pierson, Paul. 1993. “When Effect Becomes Cause: Policy Feedback and Political Change.” World Politics 45 (4): 595–628..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pinello, Daniel R. 2006. America's Struggle for Same-Sex Marriage. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pippen, John, Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 2002. “Election Reform and Direct Democracy: Campaign Finance Regulations in the American States.” American Politics Research 30 (6): 559–82..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ranney, Austin. 1976. “Parties in State Politics.” In Politics in the American States: A Comparative Analysis, edited by Jacob, Herbert and Vines, Kenneth N., 51–92. Boston: Little, Brown.Google Scholar
Ruggles, Steven, Genadek, Katie, Goeken, Ronald, Grover, Josiah, and Sobek, Matthew. 2015. “Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 6.0” [dataset]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota. doi:10.18128/D010.V6.0.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schneider, Saundra K., and Jacoby, William G.. 2006. “Citizen Influences on State Policy Priorities: The Interplay of Public Opinion and Interest Groups.” In Public Opinion in State Politics, edited by Cohen, Jeffrey E., 183–208. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 1992. “Legislative Professionalization and Membership Diversity in State Legislatures.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 17 (1): 69–79..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 2007. “Measuring State Legislative Professionalism: The Squire Index Revisited.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 7 (2): 211–27..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stoutenborough, James W., and Haider-Markel, Donald P.. 2008. “Public Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court: A New Look at the Impact of Court Decisions.” The Social Science Journal 45 (1): 28–47..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stoutenborough, James W., Haider-Markel, Donald P., and Allen Mahalley, D.. 2006. “Reassessing the Impact of Supreme Court Decisions on Public Opinion: Gay Civil Rights Cases.” Political Research Quarterly 59 (3): 419–33..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sullivan, J. W. 1893. Direct Legislation by the Citizenship through the Initiative and Referendum. New York: True Nationalist Publishing.Google Scholar
Taylor, Jami K., Lewis, Daniel C., Jacobsmeier, Matthew L., and DiSarro, Brian. 2012. “Content and Complexity in Policy Reinvention and Diffusion: Gay and Transgender-Inclusive Laws against Discrimination.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 12 (1): 92–115..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Lewis and Jacobsmeier supplementary material

Appendix

Download Lewis and Jacobsmeier supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 269.8 KB