Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T12:32:35.329Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Trump, Putin, and the Future of US-Russian Relations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2017

Abstract

This article traces the structural roots of the current crisis in US-Russia relations (the weakening of US hegemony and the resurgence of Russian power), and chronicles the series of contingencies that accompanied Donald Trump's rise to the presidency and his chaotic first few months in office. The details of Russia's influence over the results of the election through the release of hacked Democratic Party emails, and over the composition and policy of the new Trump Administration, are still emerging. The chances of a “grand bargain” between Trump and Putin look increasingly remote, however. Russia's efforts to dabble in American politics seem to have blown back, and made rapprochement between Moscow and Washington more difficult. This is unfortunate, since cooperation between the two sides to resolve a number of pressing global problems, from the wars in Ukraine and Syria to climate change, is urgently needed.

Type
Critical Forum: Russian Influence in 2016 US Presidential Election
Copyright
Copyright © Association for Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1. Kirill Benediktov, “Chernyi lebed΄: politicheskaia biografiia Donal΄da Trampa,” Livejournal, November 5, 2016, at http://el-murid.livejournal.com/2996255.html (last accessed April 27, 2017).

2. Taleb, Nassim, Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (New York, 2010)Google Scholar.

3. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, “SIPRI Military Expenditures Database,” at www.sipri.org/databases/milex (last accessed April 27, 2017).

4. Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic, April 2016, at www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/ (last accessed April 27, 2017).

5. Naftali Bendavid, “Removal of Chemical Weapons from Syria is Completed,” Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2014, at www.wsj.com/articles/removal-of-chemical-weapons-from-syria-is-completed-1403529356 (last accessed April 27, 2017).

6. Peter Rutland, “Cries from Syria,” Transitions Online, March 17, 2017, at www.tol.org/client/article/26782-syria-film-russia-putin.html (last accessed April 27, 2017).

7. Patrick Wintour, “EU Reaches out to Russia to Broker Deal with General Haftar,” The Guardian, February 9, 2017, at www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/09/eu-russia-broker-libya-khalifa-haftar-libya-tobruk (last accessed April 27, 2017).

8. “Pod grifom sektretno. Rabota boitsev rossiiskikh sil spetsial΄nikh operatsii v Sirii. Unikal΄nye Kadry,” YouTube video, 9:23, posted by Rossiia 24, December 11, 2016, at youtube.com/watch?v=zgkRcwxidbE (last accessed April 27, 2017).

9. Martin Chulov, “The Message from Syria Summit: Russia Wants a Solution in its Name,” The Guardian, January 24, 2017, at www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/24/the-message-from-syria-summit-russia-wants-a-solution-in-its-name (last accessed April 27, 2017).

10. Rod Nordland, “Russia Signs Deal on Syria Bases; Turkey Appears to Accept Assad,” New York Times, January 20, 2017, at https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/world/middleeast/russia-turkey-syria-deal.html (last accessed April 27, 2017).

11. Rutland, Peter and Kazantsev, Andrei, “The Limits of Russia’s ‘Soft Power,’The Journal of Political Power 9, no. 3 (October 2016): 395413 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

12. Michael McFaul, “We Can’t Let Trump Go down Putin’s Path,” Washington Post, February 6, 2017, at www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2017/02/06/we-cant-let-trump-go-down-putins-path/?utm_term=.c960976919a2 (last accessed April 27, 2017); Michael McFaul, interview, “Former US Ambassador to Russia Talks Trump and Putin,” WBUR On Point Audio recording, 47:01, National Public Radio, February 9, 2017, at www.wbur.org/onpoint/2017/02/09/mcfaul-trump-putin-russia (last accessed April 27, 2017).

13. There are of course some important differences between the two men. Putin is an intelligent, well-informed product of Russia’s “deep state” who had been in power for 17 years before Trump took office.

14. Andrew Kaczynski, Chris Massie, and Nathan McDermott, “80 times that Trump talked about Putin,” CNN, at edition.cnn.com/interactive/2017/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-timeline/ (last accessed April 27, 2017).

16. Philip Bump, “Does Trump know Putin? A Chronology,” Washington Post, February 7, 2017, at www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/02/07/does-trump-know-putin-a-chronology/?utm_term=.c31e2b4b1949 (last accessed April 27, 2017).

17. Andrei Pertsev, “Why Kremlin Spin Doctors Will Regret Their Enthusiasm for Trump,” Carnegie Moscow Center, November 17, 2016, at carnegie.ru/commentary/?fa=66177&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWVdFMk16QXdPRE5tWWpFMSIsInQiOiI2QWNZUVJ3XC8wNFZxU0xRSnNVeWxEZU1LNTZRVlFMXC9JNVdUdmxzMjgrVVwvXC9NZnZcLzhjankzb05JNHVrQ3JqZFZodXk4MG81cVp1SnNzTkhKcVd3c1ZYOTlhZVJVUWRIeHpOb2cyTTlcL1wvZnZlK3ZKOHVlOW12YkFoWTBUQk9pXC9sIn0%3D (last accessed April 27, 2017).

18. “Vladimir Putin’s annual news conference,” President of Russia Official Website, December 23, 2016 at en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53573 (last accessed April 27, 2017).

19. Evan Osnos, David Remnick, and Joshua Yaffa, “Trump, Putin and the New Cold War,” The New Yorker, March 6, 2017, at www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/06/trump-putin-and-the-new-cold-war (last accessed April 27, 2017).

20. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Intelligence Community Assessment: Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections,” declassified version, January 6, 2017, available online at https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf (last accessed May 3, 2017).

21. Ibid., p. 7.

22. There is web site devoted to tracking the Putin-Trump relationship, http://putintrump.org.

23. Michael Shear and Matthew Rosenberg, “Released Emails Suggest the D.N.C. Derided the Sanders Campaign,” New York Times, July 22, 2016, at www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/us/politics/dnc-emails-sanders-clinton.html (last accessed April 27, 2017).

24. Nicolai Petro, “Blaming Russia Will Only Hold America Back,” The National Interest, January 9, 2017 at nationalinterest.org/feature/blaming-russia-will-only-hold-america-back-18997 (last accessed April 27, 2017).

25. Kevin Rothrock, “American Unintelligence on Russia,” Moscow Times, January 7, 2017 at themoscowtimes.com/articles/american-unintelligence-on-russia-op-ed-56746 (last accessed April 27, 2017).

26. Robert Orttung, Elizabeth Nelson and Anthony Livshen, “How Russia Today is using YouTube,” Washington Post, March 23, 2015, at www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/23/how-russia-today-is-using-youtube/?utm_term=.707dc7f8a63d (last accessed April 27, 2017).

27. Katie Zavadski, “Putin’s Propaganda TV Lies about Its Popularity,” The Daily Beast, September 17, 2015 at www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/17/putin-s-propaganda-tv-lies-about-ratings.html. (last accessed April 27, 2017).

28. Joe Becker and Stephen Erlanger, “How Russia Often Benefits when Julian Assange Reveals the West’s Secrets,” New York Times, September 1, 2016, at www.nytimes.com/2016/09/01/world/europe/wikileaks-julian-assange-russia.html (last accessed April 27, 2017).

29. “Julian Assange Special: Do Wikileaks Have the Email That’ll Put Clinton in Prison? (EP 376),” YouTube video, 27:54, posted by RT, August 6, 2016, at www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2FfrNGcO3g (last accessed May 1, 2017).

31. Eric Lipton, David Sanger and Scott Shane, “The Perfect Weapon: How Russian Cyberpower Invaded the US,” New York Times, December 13, 2016, at https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/russia-hack-election-dnc.html?action=click&contentCollection=Europe&module=Trending&version=Full&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article (last accessed May 1, 2017).

32. Ewa Hartog and Mikhail Fishman, “An American Cover Story for Russia’s Undercover Hackers,” Moscow Times, February 14, 2017, at themoscowtimes.com/articles/tinker-tailor-hacker-spy-57013 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

33. Scott Shane, Nicholas Confessore, and Matthew Rosenberg, “How a Sensational, Unverified Dossier Became a Crisis for Donald Trump,” New York Times, January 11, 2017, at www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-intelligence.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news (last accessed May 1, 2017).

34. “Vladimir Putin Cold Open,” YouTube video, 4:05, posted by Saturday Night Live, January 22, 2017, at www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNK430YOiT4 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

35. Robert Mendick and Robert Verkaik, “Mystery Death of ex-KGB Chief Linked to MI6 Spy’s Dossier on Donald Trump,” The Telegraph, January 27, 2017,at www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/mystery-death-ex-kgb-chief-linked-mi6-spys-dossier-donald-trump/ (last accessed May 1, 2017).

36. Josh Rogin, “Trump Campaign Guts GOP’s Anti-Russia Stance on Ukraine,” Washington Post, July 18, 2016, at www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-campaign-guts-gops-anti-russia-stance-on-ukraine/2016/07/18/98adb3b0-4cf3-11e6-a7d8-13d06b37f256_story.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.2418092ef349 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

37. Andrew Kramer and Mike McIntire and Barry Meier, “Secret Ledger in Ukraine Lists Cash for Donald Trump’s Campaign Chief,” New York Times, August 14, 2016, at www.nytimes.com/2016/08/15/us/politics/paul-manafort-ukraine-donald-trump.html (last accessed May 1, 2017).

38. Jeff Horwitz and Chad Day, “AP Exclusive: Before Trump, Manafort Worked to Aid Putin,” AP, March 22, 2017, at apnews.com/122ae0b5848345faa88108a03de40c5a (last accessed May 1, 2017).

39. Ellen Nakashima, Devlin Barrett, and Adam Entous, “FBI Obtained FISA Warrant to Monitor Trump Advisor Carter Page,” Washington Post, April 11, 2017, at www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/fbi-obtained-fisa-warrant-to-monitor-former-trump-adviser-carter-page/2017/04/11/620192ea-1e0e-11e7-ad74-3a742a6e93a7_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop&utm_term=.781487ffc41c (last accessed May 1, 2017).

40. “Putin on Trump Rumours: ‘Russian Hookers are the Best!’” YouTube video, 5:59, posted by Inessa S, January 19, 2017, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Avr0K-YEcSA (last accessed May 1, 2017).

41. According to Dov Levin, the US intervened in 81 elections in 45 countries 1945–2000, while the USSR intervened in 36. See: Shane Dixon Cavanaugh, “Election Interference? The US Has Done it in 45 Countries Worldwide,” Vocativ, December 30, 2016, at http://www.vocativ.com/388500/election-interference-us-45-countries/ (last accessed May 1, 2017).

42. Evan Osnos, David Remnick, and Joshua Yaffa, “Trump, Putin, and the New Cold War,” The New Yorker, March 6, 2017, at www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/06/trump-putin-and-the-new-cold-war (last accessed May 1, 2017).

43. Maggie Haberman, Matthew Rosenberg, Matt Apuzo, and Glenn Thrush, “Michael Flynn Resigns as National Security Advisor,” New York Times, February 13, 2017, at www.nytimes.com/2017/02/13/us/politics/donald-trump-national-security-adviser-michael-flynn.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-ab-top-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

44. Greg Milner, “National Security Advisor Flynn Discussed Sanctions with Russian Ambassador, despite Denials, Officials Say” Washington Post, February 9, 2017. www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/national-security-adviser-flynn-discussed-sanctions-with-russian-ambassador-despite-denials-officials-say/2017/02/09/f85b29d6-ee11-11e6-b4ff-ac2cf509efe5_story.html?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.d1968572da22 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

46. Michael Gordon, “Russia Deploys Missile, Violating Treaty and Challenging Trump” New York Times, February 14, 2017, at www.nytimes.com/2017/02/14/world/europe/russia-cruise-missile-arms-control-treaty.html?_r=0 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

47. “USA: Sanctions on Russia Will Remain until Russia Returns Crimea back to Ukraine,” YouTube video, 2:05, posted by NewsFromUkraine, February 5, 2017, at www.youtube.com/watch?v=znFnXGn3nE4 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

48. Geoffrey Smith, “Russia’s Grand Bargain Looks Dead,” Fortune, February 15, 2017, at fortune.com/2017/02/15/trump-russia-policy-crimea-tillerson/ (last accessed May 1, 2017).

49. Donald Trump, Twitter post, February 15, 2017, 6:42 a.m., https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/831846101179314177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw.

50. Gerald Seib, “In Donald Trump’s Fourth Week, a Chance of a Reboot,” Wall Street Journal, February 13, 2017, at www.wsj.com/articles/in-donald-trumps-fourth-week-achance-for-a-reboot-1487000702?mod=djem_jiewr_PS_domainid (last accessed May 1, 2017).

51. “Trump Tells Reuters he Want to Expand Nuclear Arsenal, Make US ‘Top of the Pack,’” CNBC, February 23, 2017, at www.cnbc.com/2017/02/23/trump-tells-reuters-he-wants-to-expand-nuclear-arsenal-make-us-top-of-the-pack.html (last accessed May 1, 2017).

52. David Sanger, Eric Schmitt, and Peter Baker, “Turmoil at the National Security Council, From the Top Down” New York Times, February 12, 2017 at www.nytimes.com/2017/02/12/us/politics/national-security-council-turmoil.html?action=click&contentCollection=Politics&module=RelatedCoverage&region=Marginalia&pgtype=article (last accessed May 1, 2017).

53. Eliana Johnson, Michael Crowley, and Shane Goldmacher, “New NSC Chief Pushed Trump to Moderate his Language on Terrorism,” Politico, February 28, 2017. www.politico.com/story/2017/02/mcmaster-trump-terrorism-speech-235476 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

54. “Remarks by President Trump in Joint Address to Congress,” White House, February 28, 2017, at www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/02/28/remarks-president-trump-joint-address-congress (last accessed May 1, 2017).

55. Henry Meyer and Onur Ant, “The Russian ‘Philosopher’ who Links Bannon, Putin, Turkey: Alexander Dugin,” Chicago Tribune, February 3, 2017, at www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-dugin-trump-putin-turkey-20170203-story.html (last accessed May 1, 2017).

56. Eli Stokols, Bryan Bender, and Michael Crowley “The Husband-and-Wife Team Driving Trump’s National Security Policy,” Politico, February 13, 2017, at www.politico.com/story/2017/02/trump-national-security-gorka-234950(last accessed May 1, 2017).

57. John Hayden, “Gorka: Trump ‘Incredibly Pragmatic’ About Relations with Russia,” Breitbart, February 7, 2017, at http://www.breitbart.com/radio/2017/02/07/gorka-trump-incredibly-pragmatic-relations-russia-iran/ (last accessed May 1, 2017).

58. Mark Landler, “For 2 Advisers, Syria Strike is a Chance to Step out of the Shadows,” New York Times, April 7, 2017 at www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/world/middleeast/tillerson-mcmaster-syria-attack.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

59. Corinne Seminoff, “‘What a Shame’: Trump’s Supporters in Russia Feel Betrayed by Missile Strike,” CBC News, April 7, 2017, at www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-reacts-to-trump-airstrikes-1.4061364 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

60. Dmitrii Medvedev, Facebook post, April 7, 2017, 9:07am, Moscow, at https://www.facebook.com/Dmitry.Medvedev/posts/10154257290791851 (last accessed May 5, 2017).

61. Dmitrii Drobnitskiii, “Chto i pochemu ‘sluchilos΄ s Trampom’?,” Vzgliad, April 10, 2017 at https://vz.ru/columns/2017/4/10/865638.html (last accessed May 1, 2017).

62. “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s opening remarks at talks with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Moscow,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, April 12, 2017, at www.mid.ru/ru/press_service/minister_speeches/-/asset_publisher/7OvQR5KJWVmR/content/id/2725202?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_7OvQR5KJWVmR&_101_INSTANCE_7OvQR5KJWVmR_languageId=en_GB (last accessed May 1, 2017).

63. Julian Borger and Alec Lun, “Trump Declares US-Russia Relations May Be at ‘at All Time Low,’” The Gaurdian, April 13, 2017, at https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/12/us-russia-relations-tillerson-moscow-press-conference (last accessed May 5, 2017).

64. “Amerika Trampa: I ne drug, i ne vrag. . .?,” VCIOM, Press-release #3352, April 17, 2017, at https://wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=116158 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

65. Kathrin Hille, “Moscow Resets Expectations as Disorder Reigns in Washington,” Financial Times, February 16, 2017, at http://macaudailytimes.com.mo/files/pdf2017/FT-2746-2017-02-20.pdf (last accessed May 1, 2017).

66. “Russian TV News Has Reduced Trump Coverage by Four Times in Two Weeks,” Moscow Times, February 20, 2017, at https://themoscowtimes.com/news/russian-tv-news-has-reduced-trump-coverage-by-four-times-in-two-weeks-57213 (last accessed May 1, 2017).

67. Peter Rutland, “The Petty Bargain: Trump, Putin and the Future of US-Russia Relations,” The Interpreter, February 27, 2017, at www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/petty-bargain-trump-putin-and-future-us-russia-relations (last accessed May 2, 2017).

68. Kimberly Marten, “Reducing Tensions Between Russia and NATO,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 2017, at www.cfr.org/nato/reducing-tensions-between-russia-nato/p38899 (last accessed May 2, 2017).

69. Denis Volkov, “Dolgosrochnyi Effekt Kryma,” Vedomosti, March 17, 2017, at www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2017/03/17/681693-dolgosrochnii-effekt (last accessed May 2, 2017).

70. Rumer, Eugene, Sokolsky, Richard, and Weiss, Andrew, “Trump and Russia: The Right Way to Manage Relations,Foreign Affairs 96, no. 2 (March/April 2017): 1219 Google Scholar, at carnegieendowment.org/2017/02/13/trump-and-russia-right-way-to-manage-relations-pub-67995 (last accessed May 2, 2017).

71. Thomas Graham and Matthew Rojansky, “America’s Russia Policy Has Failed,” Foreign Policy, October 13, 2016, at http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/13/americas-russia-policy-has-failed-clinton-trump-putin-ukraine-syria-how-to-fix/ (last accessed May 2, 2017).