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Mathematical models of temporal mixing in the fossil record

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 July 2017

Alan H. Cutler
Alan H. Cutler*
Affiliation:
Department of Paleobiology, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C. 20560
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Extract

In December 1969 officials from the U.S. Selective Service System conducted a draft lottery to establish the order in which nineteen-year-old men were to be called for military service. Three hundred sixty-six capsules, one for each possible birthday, were placed in a large wooden box. As the capsules for each month were added to the box, the contents of the box were mixed. Once all 366 capsules were in the box, it was shaken several times and emptied into a deep bowl. Capsules were then drawn from the bowl to determine the draft number corresponding to each date. Observers were satisfied that the capsules had been thoroughly mixed, but, as it turned out, the results were anything but random. The Spearman rank correlation between birth date and draft number was significant at the.001 level – men with December birthdays had a significantly higher probability of being called than did those with January birthdays (Fienberg, 1971).

Type
Research Article
Information
Short Courses in Paleontology , Volume 6: Taphonomic Approaches to Time Resolution in Fossil Assemblages , 1993 , pp. 169 - 187
Copyright
Copyright © 1993 Paleontological Society 

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