Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T16:15:45.308Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Modelling seed germination response to temperature in Eucalyptus L'Her. (Myrtaceae) species in the context of global warming

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 February 2017

Anne Cochrane
Anne Cochrane*
Affiliation:
Department of Parks and Wildlife, Locked Bag 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Western Australia 6983, Australia
*
Correspondence Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Seed germination is vital for persistence of many plant species, and is linked to local environmental conditions. Small increases in temperature during this critical life history transition may threaten species by altering germination timing and success. Such changes in turn may influence population dynamics, community composition and the geographic distributions of species. In this investigation, a bi-directional temperature gradient plate was used to profile thermal constraints for germination in 26 common, threatened and geographically restricted Eucalyptus species (Myrtaceae) from southern Western Australia. These observed data were used to populate models to predict optimum germination responses (mean time to germination, germination timing and success) under current (1950–2000 averages) and future (2070 high greenhouse gas emission climate scenario) mean monthly minimum and maximum temperatures. Many species demonstrated wide physiological tolerance for high germination temperatures and an ability to germinate outside current and forecast future autumn–winter wet season temperatures, suggesting that climatic distribution is a poor proxy for thermal tolerance for Eucalyptus seed germination. Germination for some species is predicted to decline under forecast conditions, but the majority will maintain or improve germination particularly during the cooler winter months of the year. Although thermal tolerance may benefit persistence of many Eucalyptus species in southern Western Australia as warming becomes more severe, large rainfall declines are also forecast which may prove more detrimental to plant survival. Nonetheless, this framework has the potential to identify seed resilience to heat stress in an early life history phase and hence species vulnerability to one characteristic of forecast environmental change.

Keywords

Eucalyptusglobal warmingmean time to germinationpercentage germinationtemperature gradient plateWestern Australia
Type
Research Papers
Information
Seed Science Research , Volume 27 , Special Issue 2: Seed Ecology , June 2017 , pp. 99 - 109
Check for updates
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abbott, I. and Le Maitre, D. (2010) Monitoring the impact of climate change on biodiversity: The challenge of megadiverse Mediterranean climate ecosystems. Austral Ecology 35, 406–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, C.D., Macalady, A.K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D.D., Hogg, E.H., Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim, J.-H., Allard, G., Running, S.W., Semerci, A. and Cobb, N. (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259, 660–684.Google Scholar
Bachelard, E.P. (1985) Effects of soil moisture stress on the growth of seedlings of three eucalypt species. 1. Seed germination. Australian Forest Research 15, 103–114.Google Scholar
Bates, B., Frederiksen, C. and Wormworth, J. (2012) Western Australia's weather and climate: a synthesis of Indian Ocean climate initiative Stage 3 research. Indian Ocean Climate Initiative CSIRO and BoM, Australia.Google Scholar
Battaglia, M. (1993) Seed germination physiology of Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker in Tasmania. Australian Journal of Botany 41, 119–136.Google Scholar
Battaglia, M. (1996) Effects of seed dormancy and emergence time on the survival and early growth of Eucalyptus delegatensis and E . amygdalina. Australian Journal of Botany 44, 123–137.Google Scholar
Battaglia, M. (1997) Seed germination model for Eucalyptus delegatensis provenances germinating under conditions of variable temperature and water potential. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 24, 69–79.Google Scholar
Bell, D.T. (1999) The process of germination in Australian species. Australian Journal of Botany 47, 475–517.Google Scholar
Bell, D. T., Plummer, J.A. and Taylor, S.K. (1993) Seed germination ecology in southwestern Western Australia. The Botanical Review 59, 25–73.Google Scholar
Bell, D.T., Rokich, D.P., McChesney, C.J. and Plummer, J.A. (1995) Effects of temperature, light and gibberellic acid on the germination of seeds of 43 species native to Western Australia. Journal of Vegetation Science 6, 797–806.Google Scholar
Bellairs, S.M. and Bell, D.T. (1990) Temperature effects on the seed germination of ten kwongan species from Eneabba, Western Australia. Australian Journal of Botany 38, 451–458.Google Scholar
Bewley, J.D. and Black, M. (1994) Seeds. Physiology of Development and Germination. New York, Plenum Press.Google Scholar
Boland, D.J., Brooker, M.I.H. and Turnbull, J.W. (1980) Eucalyptus Seed. CSIRO Australia, Melbourne.Google Scholar
Booth, T.H. (2015) Using a global botanic gardens database to help assess the capabilities of rare Eucalypt species to cope with climate change. International Forestry Review 17, 259–268.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Booth, T.H. (2016) Estimating potential range and hence climatic adaptability in selected tree species. Forest Ecology and Management 366, 175–183.Google Scholar
Booth, T.H., Broadhurst, L.M., Pinkard, E., Prober, S.M., Dillon, S.K., Bush, D., Pinyopusarerk, K., Doran, J.C., Ivkovich, M. and Young, A.G. (2015) Native forests and climate change: lessons from eucalypts. Forest Ecology and Management 347, 18–29.Google Scholar
Brooker, M.I.H. (2000) A new classification of the genus Eucalyptus L'Her. (Myrtaceae). Australian Systematic Botany 13.Google Scholar
Butt, N., Pollock, L.J. and McAlpine, C.A. (2013) Eucalypts face increasing climate stress. Ecology and Evolution 3, 5011–5022.Google Scholar
Byrne, M., Prober, S., McLean, E., Steane, D., Stock, W., Potts, B. and Vaillancourt, R. (2013) Adaptation to climate in widespread eucalypt species. Final report, p. 86. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia.Google Scholar
Close, D.C. and Wilson, S.J. (2002) Provenance effects on pre-germination treatments for Eucalyptus regnans and E. delegatensis seed. Forest Ecology and Management 170, 299–305.Google Scholar
Cochrane, A. (2016) Can sensitivity to temperature during germination help predict global warming vulnerability? Seed Science Research 26, 14–29.Google Scholar
Cochrane, A., Yates, C.J., Hoyle, G.L. and Nicotra, A.B. (2015) Will among-population variation in seed traits improve the chance of species persistence under climate change? Global Ecology and Biogeography 24, 12–24.Google Scholar
Dalmaris, E., Ramalho, C.E., Poot, P., Veneklaas, E.J. and Byrne, M. (2015) A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling. Annals of Botany 116, 941–952.Google Scholar
Drake, J.E., Aspinwall, M.J., Pfautsch, S., Rymer, P.D., Reich, P.B., Smith, R.A., Crous, K.Y., Tissue, D.T., Ghannoum, O. and Tjoelker, M.G. (2014) The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species. Global Change Biology 21, 459–472.Google Scholar
Edgar, J.G. (1977) Effects of moisture stress on germination of Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh, and E. regnans F. Muell. Australian Forest Research 7, 241–245.Google Scholar
Etterson, J.R. (2004) Evolutionary potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata in relation to climate change. 1. Clinal patterns of selection along an environmental gradient in the Great Plains. Evolution 58, 1446–1456.Google Scholar
Fernández-Pascual, E., Seal, C.E. and Pritchard, H.W. (2015) Simulating the germination response to diurnally alternating temperatures under climate change scenarios: comparative studies on Carex diandra seeds. Annals of Botany 115, 201–209.Google Scholar
Gentilli, J. (1972) Australian Climate Patterns. Melbourne, Australia, Thomas Nelson.Google Scholar
Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. and Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25, 1965–1978.Google Scholar
Hnatiuk, R.J. and Hopkins, A.J.M. (1981) An ecological analysis of kwongan vegetation south of Eneabba, Western Australia. Australian Journal of Ecology 6, 423–438.Google Scholar
Hughes, L., Cawsey, E.M. and Westoby, M. (1996) Climatic range sizes of Eucalyptus species in relation to future climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters 5, 23–29.Google Scholar
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, Cambridge University Press,Google Scholar
Jones, C.D., Hughes, J.K., Bellouin, N., Hardiman, S.C., Jones, G.S., Knight, J., Liddicoat, S., O'Connor, F.M., Andres, R.J., Bell, C., Boo, K.O., Bozzo, A., Butchart, N., Cadule, P., Corbin, K.D., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gornall, J., Gray, L., Halloran, P.R., Hurtt, G., Ingram, W.J., Lamarque, J.F., Law, R.M., Meinshausen, M., Osprey, S., Palin, E.J., Parsons, , Chini, L., Raddatz, T., Sanderson, M.G., Sellar, A.A., Schurer, A., Valdes, P., Wood, N., Woodward, S., Yoshioka, M. and Zerroukat, M. (2011) The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations. Geoscientific Model Development 4, 543–570.Google Scholar
Lloret, F., Peñuelas, J. and Estiarte, M. (2004) Experimental evidence of reduced diversity of seedlings due to climate modification in a Mediterranean-type community. Global Change Biology 10, 248–258.Google Scholar
López, M., Humara, J.M., Casares, A. and Majada, J. (2000) The effect of temperature and water stress on laboratory germination of Eucalyptus globulus Labill. seeds of different sizes. Annals of Forest Science 57, 245–250.Google Scholar
McLean, E.H., Prober, S.M., Stock, W.D., Steane, D.A., Potts, B.M., Vaillancourt, R.E. and Byrne, M. (2014) Plasticity of functional traits varies clinally along a rainfall gradient in Eucalyptus tricarpa . Plant, Cell and Environment 37, 1440–1451.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Millar, C.I., Stephenson, N.L. and Stephens, S.L. (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications 17, 2145–2151.Google Scholar
Mok, H.-F., Arndt, S.K. and Nitschke, C.R. (2012) Modelling the potential impact of climate variability and change on species regeneration potential in the temperate forests of South-Eastern Australia. Global Change Biology 18, 1053–1072.Google Scholar
Moss, R.H., Edmonds, J.A., Hibbard, K.A., Manning, M.R., Rose, S.K., van Vuuren, D.P., Carter, T.R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S.J., Stouffer, R.J., Thomson, A.M., Weyant, J.P. and Wilbanks, T.J. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463, 747–756.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Mott, J.J. and Groves, R.H. (1981) Germination strategies. In Pate, J.S. and McComb, A.J. (eds), The Biology of Australian Plants, pp. 307–341. Perth, UWA Press.Google Scholar
Nicotra, A.B., Atkin, O.K., Bonser, S.P., Davidson, A.M., Finnegan, E.J., Mathesius, U., Poot, P., Purugganan, M.D., Richards, C.L., Valladares, F. and van Kleunen, M. (2010) Plant phenotypic plasticity in a changing climate. Trends in Plant Science 15, 684–692.Google Scholar
Ooi, M.K.J., Auld, T.D. and Denham, A.J. (2012) Projected soil temperature increase and seed dormancy response along an altitudinal gradient: implications for seed bank persistence under climate change. Plant and Soil 353, 289–303.Google Scholar
Pearson, R.G. and Dawson, T.P. (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimatic envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography 12, 361–371.Google Scholar
Probert, R.J. (2000) The role of temperature in the regulation of seed dormancy and germination. In Fenner, M. (ed), Seeds. The Ecology of Regeneration in Plant Communities, pp. 261–292. Wallingford, UK, CAB International.Google Scholar
Rawal, D.S., Kasel, S., Keatley, M.R. and Nitschke, C.R. (2015) Environmental effects on germination phenology of co-occurring eucalypts: implications for regeneration under climate change. International Journal of Biometerology 59, 1237–1252.Google Scholar
Redmond, M.D., Forcella, F. and Barger, N.N. (2012) Declines in pinyon pine cone production associated with regional warming. Ecosphere 3, 1–14.Google Scholar
Walck, J.L., Hidayati, S.N., Dixon, K.W., Thompson, K. and Poschlod, P. (2011) Climate change and plant regeneration from seed. Global Change Biology 17, 2145–2161.Google Scholar
Watkinson, A.R. (1997) Plant population dynamics. In Crawley, M. (ed), Plant Ecology, pp. 359–400. Oxford, Blackwell Science.Google Scholar
Watson, J. (2016) Bring climate change back from the future. Nature 534, 437.Google Scholar
Zohar, Y., Waisel, Y. and Karschon, R. (1975) Effects of light, temperature and osmotic stress on seed germination of Eucalyptus occidentalis Endl. Australian Journal of Botany 23, 391–397.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Cochrane supplementary material S1

Supplementary Figure

Download Cochrane supplementary material S1(File)
File 2.5 MB
Supplementary material: File

Cochrane supplementary material S2

Supplementary Figure

Download Cochrane supplementary material S2(File)
File 89.3 KB