Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-20T09:33:17.752Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2000

MICHAEL SMITHSON
Affiliation:
Division of Psychology, The Australian National University, Canberra A.C.T. 0200 Australia
THOMAS BARTOS
Affiliation:
Division of Psychology, The Australian National University, Canberra A.C.T. 0200 Australia
KAZUHISA TAKEMURA
Affiliation:
Institute of Socio-Economic Planning, Tsukuba University, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Japan
Get access

Abstract

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

Type
Technical article
Copyright
© Risk, Decision and Policy, 2000

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)