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Globalization, de-industrialization and underdevelopment in the third world before the modern era*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 January 2010

Jeffrey G. Williamson
Jeffrey G. Williamson
Affiliation:
Harvard Universitya
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Abstract

Between 1810 and 1940, a large GDP per capita gap appeared between the industrial core and the poor periphery, the latter producing, increasingly, primary products. Over the same period, the terms of trade facing the periphery underwent a secular boom then bust, peaking in the 1870s or 1890s. These terms of trade trends appear to have been exogenous to the periphery. Additionally, the terms of trade facing the periphery exhibited relatively high volatility. Are these correlations spurious, or are they causal? This Figuerola Lecture, to be given at Carlos III University (Madrid), argues that they are causal, that secular growth and volatility in the terms of trade had asymmetric effects on core and periphery. On the upswing, the secular rise in its terms of trade had powerful de-industrialization effects in the periphery. Over the full cycle 1810–1940, terms of trade volatility suppressed accumulation and growth in the periphery as well.

Type
Articles/Artículos
Information
Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History , Volume 24 , Issue 1 , Primavera 2006 , pp. 9 - 36
Copyright
Copyright © Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 2006

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