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State of the Art VII: The Demography of the Middle East

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 March 2016

Georges Sabagh
Georges Sabagh*
Affiliation:
University of California (Los Angeles)
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Extract

On May 22, 1966, the eve of the first Tunisian census since independence, President Habib Bourguiba expressed as follows the objectives and uses of this census:

The methodical efforts we are making, within the framework of the Plan, to raise the standard of living of citizens are of necessity based on statistical data concerning the size and distribution of the population, its activities and its manner of life.…The census does not consist solely in just counting our population. Its purpose is to collect all sorts of information likely to help us draw our plans for economic and social development judiciously.

The need for population data has undoubtedly provided an impetus for the collection of such data as well as for demographic research not only in Tunisia but also in other Middle Eastern countries. In recent years, an added impetus for demographic research has been the realization that, in some of these countries, population growth may be threatening social and economic development.

Type
Research Article
Information
Review of Middle East Studies , Volume 4 , Issue 2 , May 1970 , pp. 1 - 19
Copyright
Copyright © Middle East Studies Association of North America 1970

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References

Footnotes

1 Publication No. 8 of the Secretariat of State for Information and Orientation, Tunis, 1966, pp. 5 and 6.

2 The following Middle Eastern leaders signed the World Leaders Declaration on Population (December 1967): Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, King Hussein of Jordan, King Hassan II of Morocco, President Habib Bourguiba, and President Gamal Abdel Nasser.

3 Mahmoud Seklani, “Croissance démographique comparée des pays du Maghreb 1950–1990”, and Bouisri, Abdelaziz, “Techniques, methodes et résultats du recensement de la population algérienne”, in Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, vol. 6, June-September 1969, pp. 29–51 and 95–125Google Scholar, and El-Badry, M. A., “Trends in the Components of Population Growth in the Arab Countries of the Middle East: A Survey of Present Information”, Demography, vol. 2, 1965, pp. 140–186CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and Population Research Center, Department of Sociology, University of Texas, International Population Census Bibliography, Asia, Austin, Texas, 1966Google Scholar. While the first census of Algeria was taken in 1843, it is not until 1886 that the native Muslim population was enumerated with household and individual schedules. In general, in both Algeria and Egypt, under-enumeration is more pronounced in the earlier than the later censuses. Furthermore, in Algeria, it is not until the census of 1954 that detailed tabulations on demographic and socio-economic characteristics were published.

4 Seklani, Mahmoud, ibid., and Bernard, Augustin, “Le recensement de 1921 dans l’Afrique du Nord”, and “Le recensement de 1926 dans l’Afrique du Nord”, Annales de Géographie, vol. 31, 1922, pp. 52–58 and vol. 36, 1927, pp. 52–58.Google Scholar

5 Both Syria and Lebanon have had population registers which have been deficient, and there are some references to population counts in both countries. Lebanon has not yet taken a general population census based on direct canvass of every household. There is some reference to a census of Saudi Arabia in 1962–63 which was subject to marked under-enumeration. See El-Badry, M. A., op. cit., Chasteland, Jean-Claude, “Quelques problèmes de collecte de données démographiques dans les pays arabes du Moyen-Orient”, paper presented at 1969 London Conference of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and Note on Some Demographic Chrracteristics of Selected Countries in the Middle East, Beirut, United Nations Economic and Social Office, 1969, p. 6Google Scholar. The last and only census of Palestine was in 1931 and the first census of Israel was in 1961.

6 See Wendell Cleland, The Population Problem in Egypt, 1936 for a list of the variables in the published tabulations from the Egyptian censuses. Thus it is not until 1907 that tabulations on marital status and place of birth were available. Furthermore, extensive cross-tabulations do not appear until later, particularly with the introduction of machine data-processing.

7 See Table 1

8 Chasteland, J. C., op. cit., Maroufi-Bozorgi, Nasser, “The Use of Household Surveys to Measure Population Change in Iran”, and Avralioğlu, Zeki, “Report on the Turkish Demographic Survey”, CENTO Symposium on Household Surveys, Ankara, Turkey, 1966Google Scholar and Seklani, M., op. cit., p 39.Google Scholar

9 See Djemai, Hedi and Bouraoui, Abdelhamid, “Analyse comparative des questionnaires sur la planification familiale dans les pays arabo-musulmans”, Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, vol. 6, June-September 1969, pp. 337–360Google Scholar; Studies in Family Planning, Number 5, December 1964; and Amani, M., “Fécondité Actuelle des Femmes Mariées dans Quatre Zones Rurales d’Iran”, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Contributed Papers, Sydney Conference, Australia, 1967, pp. 319–324.Google Scholar

10 Seklani, Mahmoud, op. cit., p. 41Google Scholar and Chasteland, J. C., op. cit., p. 5.Google Scholar

11 El-Badry, M. A., op. cit., pp. 144–145Google Scholar. There is some indication of a decline in the birth rate of Turkey from 1935 to 1960, a decline which has been attributed both to a changing age structure and to a decline in marital fertility. Shorter, Frederic C., “Information on fertility, mortality, and population growth in Turkey”, Population Index, vol. 34, 1968, pp. 3–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Also there is some evidence of a very recent decline in the birth rate of Tunisia which has been attributed in part to increase in age at marriage and to a decline in marital fertility (Vallin, J. and Lapham, R., “Place du planning familial dans l’évolution récente de la natalité en Tunisie”, Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, vol. 6, 1969, pp. 379–414).Google Scholar

12 Demographic Studies of Selected Areas of Rapid Growth, New York, Milbank Memorial Fund, 1944. Wendell C. Celland of the American University in Cairo, also presented a paper on a “Population Plan for Egypt” at the same conference.

13 The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, vol. 23, 1945, pp. 308–352.

14 See the annual reports of the Population Council. The Demographic Division of the Council has now an Assistant Director for the Middle and Near East.

15 Data given in the various issues of Le Démographe, official publication of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, as well as in conference proceedings.

16 For information on training and research centers see Le Démographe, July 1969 and Ranjan K. Som, “Demographic Training and Research in Africa”, and James L. Maslowski, “Demographic Training and Research in Asia”, papers presented at the 1969 London population conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.

17 For example, Arabic books include: El-Greitly, A., Population and Economic Resources in Egypt, Cairo, 1962Google Scholar, Namiq, S., The Demographic Problem in Egypt: A Social and Economic Study, Cairo, 1954Google Scholar, El-Daly, A. H., Vital Statistics and the Problems of Population in Egypt, Cairo, 1956Google Scholar, and El-Khashab, A., The Population of Arab Society, Cairo, 1964Google Scholar. Books in Turkish or Persian include: Turkay, Orhan, Population Increase and Economic Development in Turkey, Ankara, 1962Google Scholar; Gurtan, Orhan, Population Problem in Turkey and its Relation to Economic Development, Istanbul, 1966Google Scholar, Behnam, D. J., General Demography, Teheran, 1963.Google Scholar

18 El-Badry, M. A., op. cit., Seklani, M., op. cit., Chasteland, J. C., op. cit., Benyoussef, Amor, Populations du Maghreb et Communaute a Quatre, Paris, 1967Google Scholar, Holler, Joanne E., Population Growth and Social Change in the Middle East, Washington 1964Google Scholar and Stephens, Richard W., Population Factors in the Development of North Africa, Washington, 1960Google Scholar. See also a special issue of Confluent on “Problèmes démographiques au Maghreb”, (No. 50, April-May 1965); L’évolution de la population dans les pays du Moyen Orient” Paris, La documentation francaise, 1964; and G. Baer, Population and Society in the Arab East, New York, 1964, Chapter l.

19 Scott, C. and Sabagh, G., “The Historical Calnnder as a Method of Estimating Age: The Experience of the Moroccan Multipurpose Sample Survey of 1961–63”, Population Studies, in press.Google Scholar

20 El-Badry, M. A., “Some Aspects of Fertility in Egypt”, The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, vol. 34, 1956, pp. 22–43.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

21 For example, see El-Badry, M. A., “Some Demographic Measurements for Egypt Based on the Stability of Census Age Distributions”, The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, vol. 33, 1955, pp. 268–305Google Scholar; Chasteland, J. C., op. cit.; Vukovich, G., “Estimation of Fertility and Mortality Levels in Some Arab Countries”, Demografia, vol. 10, 1966, pp. 163–77Google Scholar (in Hungarian); and Cairo Demographic Center, Newsletter, No. 1, June 1969.

22 Sabagh, G. and Scott, C., “A Comparison of Different Survey Techniques for Obtaining Vital Data in a Developing Country”, Demography, vol. 4, 1967, pp. 759–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Vallin, J. and Paulet, G., “Quelques Aspects de l’enqiléte nationale démographique tunisienne”, Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, vol. 6, 1969, pp. 227–248.Google Scholar

23 Vallin, J. and Paulet, G., ibid.; Avralioğlu, Zeki, op. cit.; and Patience Lauriat, “Field Experience in Estimating Population Growth”, Demography, vol. 4, 1967, pp. 228–43.Google Scholar

24 Kirk, D., “Factors Affecting Moslem Natality”, in Bernard Berelson and others, Family Planning and Population Programs, Chicago, 1966, p. 570.Google Scholar

25 “La Fécondité dans les pays Arabes: données numériques, attitudes et comportements”, Population, vol. 15, 1960, pp. 831–856. For an annotated bibliography of fertility studies see Seklani, Mahmoud, Rouissi, Moncer, and Behir, Mongi, La fécondite des ménages à Tunis, Tunis, 1969, pp. 85–108.Google Scholar

26 M. A. El-Badry, op. cit.; Abu-Lughod, Janet, “Urban-Rural Differences as a Function of Demographic Transition: Egyptian Data and An Analytical Model”, The American Journal of Sociology, vol. 59, 1964, pp. 476–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Abdel-Khalik M. Zikry, “Fertility Differentials of the U.A.R. Women”, Paper presented at the 1965 World Population Conference.

27 Chasteland, J. C., “Essai d’évaluation du niveau de la natalité et de la fécondité en Iran”, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Contributed Papers, Sydney Conference, Australia, 1967, pp. 348–54Google Scholar; Sabagh, G., “Analyse de l’influence du niveau d’instruction sur la fécondité au Maroc”, Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, vol. 6, 1969, pp. 263–74Google Scholar; and Royaum du Maroc, Service Central des Statistiques, Resultats de l’Enquête à Objectifs Multiples, Rabat, pp. 69–74.

28 Turkiye Nufus Arastirmasindan, Elde Edilan, Hayâti İstatistikler, 1965–66, Ankara, 1965–66.

29 “The Patterns and Causes of Fertility Differentials in the Sudan” Population Studies, vol. 23, 1969, pp. 171–198.

30 M. A. El-Badry, op. cit.; Rizk, Hanna, Fertility Patterns in Selected Areas of Egypt, Ph.D. Dissertation, Princeton University, 1959Google Scholar; and Yaukey, David, Fertility Differentials in a Modernizing Country: A Survey of Lebanese Couples, Princeton, N. J., 1961.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

31 Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Marriage and Fertility, Parts I and II, Jerusalem, 1965 and 1966. The comparison is in terms of children ever born to married women in ages 45–49.

32 M. A. El-Badry, op. cit., Zikry, Abdel-Khalik M., op. cit.Google Scholar, Abut-Lughod, Janet, “The Emergence of Differential Fertility in Urban Egypt”, The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, vol. 43, 1965, pp. 235–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

33 Mahmoud Seklani, Moncer Rouissi, and Mongi Behir, op. cit.; Morsa, Jean, “The Tunisian Survey: A Preliminary Analysis”, in Berelson, and others, Family Planning and Population Programs, Chicago, 1966, pp. 581–93Google Scholar; Lapham, R., “L’utilisation passée ou présente de la contraception chez les femmes de milieux urbain et rural dans la plaine du Sai’s au Maroc”, Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, vol. 6, 1969, pp. 439–456Google Scholar; G; Sabagh, op. cit., Abdellah Berrada, “Fécondité en fonction de la profession du chef de foyer et de l’age de la mère”, Paper presented at 1965 World Population Conference.

34 Ististiskler, Hayâti, op. cit., p. 37.Google Scholar

35 Israel, Central Bureau of Statistics, Families in Israel, Part II (Analysis by Dr. J. Matras), Jerusalem, 1968.

36 D. Kirk, op. cit., J. Morsa, op. cit., Hanna Rizk, op. cit.; Association Algérienne pour la Recherche Démographique, Economique et Sociale, La Régulation des Naissances, Algiers, 1968; “Enquête d’opinion sur la planification familiale au Maroc 1966”, Bulletin économique et social du Maroc, vol. 39, 1967, p. 65–149.

37 Kirk, D., op. cit. p. 579.Google Scholar

38 See for example, El-Badry, M. A., op. cit., and “Internal migration in the U.A.R.”, L’Egypte Contemporaine, vol. 56, 1965, pp. 31–43Google Scholar (in Arabic); Ozok, Kemal, “Urbanization and Internal Migration in Turkey”Google Scholar, paper presented at the 1965 World Population Conference; Habib Attia, “La répartition géographique de la population tunisienne à partir du recensement de 1966”, and Makhlouf, Ezzedine, “L’évolution de la Population de la Tunisie septentrionale depuis 1921: milieu rural et structures de production”, in Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, vol. 6, 1969, pp. 505–565Google Scholar; and Forichon, R. and Mas, P., “Les problemes de la repartition du peuplement au Maroc”, Bulletin économique et social du Maroc, vol. 21, 1958, pp. 471–505.Google Scholar

39 See for example, Zachariah, K. C., “Sex-Age Pattern of Population Mobility in the UAR: with some International Comparisons”, paper presented at the 1969 London conference of the International Union for the Study of Population.Google Scholar

40 M. A. El-Badry, op. cit.

41 Turkey, State Institute of Statistics, Population Census of Turkey 24 October 1965:1% Sample Results, Ankara 1966.

42 See for example Phillips, Doris G., “Rural to Urban Migration in Iraq”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 7, 1959, pp. 405–31CrossRefGoogle Scholar and Abu-Lughod, Janet, “Migrant Adjustment to City Life: The Egyptian Case”, The American Journal of Sociology, vol. 67, pp. 22–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar