Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T13:27:53.494Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Global non-proliferation policies: retrospect and prospect

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 October 2009

Extract

The 1980 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference will chiefly be remembered for the inability of the delegates to agree on a final document. There were several visible reasons for this, some related to the immediate political concerns of the participants, some linked to the nature of the treaty itself. The statements of the participating states indicated that they held differing conceptions of the purposes of the treaty, and possessed very diverse views on the action that should be taken to achieve them. Four sets of assertions dominated the discussions: that the nuclear states had not fulfilled their obligation to negotiate measures of nuclear disarmament as specified in Article VI of the treaty; that the advanced industrial states had not fulfilled their obligations to assist and encourage the global development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy contained in both Articles IV and V of the treaty; that the attempts by the United States government to discharge its obligations under the 1978 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act by threatening to terminate fuel supply contracts to both treaty parties and non-parties, unless they accepted International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards on all their nuclear installations, was inequitable and improper (the same accusation was also directed at Canada); and that the major danger of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and Africa originated in the threats posed to the states in these regions by the regimes in Israel and South Africa. One issue on which there did appear to be agreement, however, was that the safeguards regime foreshadowed by Article III of the treaty had functioned satisfactorily, in that no Feaches of it had been reported to the Review Conference by the IAEA. Yet the differing interpretations of the balance of rights and obligations contained in the treaty masks a much deeper set of issues: what precisely is the problem of nuclear proliferation, to what extent is the predominant diplomatic rhetoric of nuclear non-proliferation discussions unrepresentative of the real concerns and interests of the participants, what was and is the relationship between nuclear weapons and nuclear power, and does the NPT itself address (or was it ever intended to address) the problem of nuclear proliferation in the form in which it seems likely to be encountered in the 1980s?

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © British International Studies Association 1982

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1. See for example, the statements by Ionescu (Romania), M. O. and Adeniji (Nigeria), O. to Committee I - NPT/32, 21 September 1980, p. 2Google Scholar

2. cf. the speeches by Reksodiputro, H. (Indonesia) and Florean, V. (Romania) to Committee II -NPT/38, 25 September 1980, p. 3Google Scholar, and Group of 77 working paper NPT/Conf. II/C 11/34, p. 4.

3. cf. speech by Kljun, E. (Yugoslavia), NPT/38, 25 September 1980, p. 2Google Scholar, and Zangger, C. (Switzerland) NPT/40, 26 September 1980, p. 4Google Scholar, and the Group of 77 Working Paper, Ibid, p. 2Google Scholar.

4. cf. speeches by Allison, E. (Nigeria) NPT/38, 25 September 1980, p. 5Google Scholar, and Fonseka, F. W. (Sri Lanka ) NPT/55, p. 3Google Scholar, and Group of 77 Working Paper, Ibid., p. 3Google Scholar.

5. Group of 77 Working Paper, Ibid., p. 4Google Scholar.

6. For a recent detailed account of the Baruch/Lilienthal Plan see US House of Representatives: Committee on International Relations, Science, Technology and American Diplomacy, vol. 1 (Washington: GPO, 1977), pp. 57122Google Scholar.

7. Ibid., pp. 88–103.

8. The availability of newly released US policy documents for the period is leading to some reassessments of the motives behind this policy. For a brief account of the detailed evolution of the programme see Ibid., pp. 156157Google Scholar. For recent reassessments see Sokolski, H.‘Atoms for Peace: A Non-Proliferation Primer’, Arms Control, vol. 1, No. 2, September 1980, pp. 199231CrossRefGoogle Scholar, and Pringle, P. and Spigelman, J., The Nuclear Barons (1981), pp. 121124Google Scholar.

9. ‘Address by the President before the United Nations General Assembly’ Congressional Record, vol. 100, 07 January 1954, pp. 6163Google Scholar.

10. The initial US offer was for 5,000 kg of U235, with 50 kg being offered by the USSR and 20 by the United Kingdom. Science, Technology and American Diplomacy, op. cit. p. 185. Sokolski argues that one of the aims of the policy was to prevent the USSR stockpiling sufficient fissile material for military applications to be in a position to mount a ‘knock-out’ strike against the United States. ‘Atoms for Peace: A Non-Proliferation Primer’ op. cit.

11. This belief is discussed in ‘Report to the American Physical Society by the Study Group on Nuclear Fuel Cycles and Waste Management’ Review of Modern Physics 50/1, Part II, January 1978Google Scholar, quoted in DeVolpi, A., Proliferation Plutonium and Policy (Pergamon, 1979), pp. 273274Google Scholar.

12. The domestic politics of nuclear power development during the 1950s were very complex due to the differing Republican and Democratic attitudes towards State assistance for the development of commercial nuclear power. For an account of this see Green, H. P. and Rosenthal, A., Government of the Atom, (Atherton/New York, 1963), pp. 252265Google Scholar and Science, Technology and American Diplomacy, op. cit. pp. 161—172 and pp. 286—289.

13. US Code Congressional and Administrative News, vol. 1 83rd Congress, 1954, pp. 10761127.Google Scholar

14. Ibid., sections 54, 64, 82 and 123.

15. For a discussion of this evolving US policy see Science, Technology and US Diplomacy, op. cit., pp. 176–202.

16. For a brief but detailed discussion of the ‘two key’ system see M. Leitenberg ‘Background Materials in Tactical Nuclear Weapons’ in SIPRI Tactical Nuclear Weapons: European Perspectives, (London, 1978), pp. 322Google Scholar.

17. Macmillan, H., Riding the Storm, 1956–1959 (Macmillan, 1971), pp. 487491Google Scholar.

18. cf. Divine, D. A., Blowing on the Wind (Oxford, 1978), pp. 123125Google Scholar, p. 153, p. 175, pp. 181–182, and p. 256.

19. For a brief outline of this evolution see Ranger, R., Arms and Politics 1958 –1978 (Toronto, 1979), pp. 2980Google Scholar.

20. For a full discussion of the technical basis of this judgement see De Volpi, op, cit., pp. 60–9 2 and pp. 297–327. The key point is that the plutonium generated by the normal operation of a power reactor is unsuitable for long-term storage as a component of a weapon, but is capable of being used to produce a nuclear explosion. A weapon made from it would create uncertainties about yield and reliability and would result in a physically larger device than one using weapon-grade plutonium. It is therefore judged to be likely to be used only for emergency or terrorist purposes. For a further discussion of this issue see Wohlstetter, A.: ‘Spreading the bomb without quite breaking the rules’, Foreign Policy, 25, Winter 19761977, pp. 9395Google Scholar and p. 159. It has recently been revealed that the United States is contemplating using ‘fuel-grade plutonium’ mixed with high grade weapon material in the production of new generations of nuclear weapons. Aviation Week and Space Technology, 26 January 1981, p. 20Google Scholar

21. cf. Larsen, T. B., Disarmament and Soviet Policy 1964–68 (Prentice-Hall, 1969), pp. 147156Google Scholar.

22. Steinbruner, J. D., The Cybernetic Theory of Decision (Princeton, 1974)Google Scholar.

23. ‘Amendment to United States - United Kingdom Mutual Defence Agreement on Uses of Atomic Energy’, Congressional Record, House 91st Congress, 1st Session vol. 115, Part 5, 11 March 1969, pp. 59765977Google Scholar.

24. Disarmament Commission Official Records, 75th Meeting, p. 4.

25. ENDC/PV28.

26. ENDC/PV298.

27. Further Documents Relating to the Conference of the Eighteen-Nation Committee on Disarmament Misc. 20 (1964) Cmnd 2486, Document No. 4 (ENOC/131); Document No. 5 (ENDC/132) and Document No. 6 (Statement by Sir Alec Douglas-Home in the House of Commons, 21 April 1964).

28. Further Documents Relating to the Conference of the Eighteen-Nation Committee on Disarmament (Session 14 March 1962–16 June 1962) Misc. No. 22 (1962) Cmnd 1792 (HMSO: 1962), p. 163Google Scholar.

29. Ibid., p. 226

30. The possibility that non-nuclear weapon states may wish to build or purchase nuclear power reactors for military purposes has been recognized by the IAEA. It is incorporated into paragraph 14 of INFCIRC 153 (corrected) the standardized agreement a non-nuclear state signs with the IAEA when it accepts the full-scope safeguards which are mandatory under the terms of the NPT. Under this provision, material could be withdrawn from safeguards for military applications. However, no such request to withdraw materials from safeguards has ever been made and the exact arrangements involved are unclear, as is the likely attitude of the IAEA's Board of Governors who would probably have to approve of the arrangements.

31. ENDC/PV299.

32. UN Document A/C. 1/1556.

33. For a discussion on the application and effectiveness of safeguards see Imber, M., ‘NPT Safeguards: The Limits of Credibility ’Arms Control, vol. 1 no. 2, September 1980, pp. 186Google Scholar and 187.

34. The Western Nuclear Weapon states changed their attitude to negative security assurances ten years later, and were prepared to offer them at the 1978 UN Special Session on Disarmament See UN General Assembly Document A/S. 10/PV. 26, 26 June 1978, pp. 3 and 4 for the British statement on this issue.

35. UN Document A/C 1/1556.

36. NPT/CONF/SR2.

37. NPT/CONF/17/Add 1–4.

38. NPT/CONF/22.

39. NPT/CONF/JJ/SR3.

40. NPT/CONF/CI/SR13.

41. Baker, P.-J.‘Monopoly or Cartel', Foreign Policy, 23, summer 1976, pp. 202220CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

42. This ‘trigger’ list originated in 1974 as INFCIRC/209, and was subsequently made more rigorous by the Suppliers Group. See text of announcement by Nuclear Suppliers Group, 21 September 77 reprinted in Survival, vol. XX:2, March/April 1978, pp. 68–87. For a discussion of the origins of the Group see Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards, Office of Technological Assessment: US Congress (Praeger, 1977), pp. 220–221 and Pringle and Spigelman, op. cit., pp. 203, 506–7.

43. Meyer-Wobse, C.‘Nuclear Co-operation in the Third World’ Aussen-Politik, 29 (1), 1978, pp. 6768Google Scholar; Lellouche, P.‘France and International Nuclear Energy’ Orbis, 22(4), Winter 1979, p. 960Google Scholar; Redick, J. R.‘Regional Restraint, US Nuclear Policy and Latin America, Orbis, 22(1), Spring 1978, pp. 161200Google Scholar; Williams, F.C. and Deese, F. C., Nuclear Non-Proliferation, The Spent Fuel Problem, (Pergamon, 1979), pp. 81Google Scholar and 82 and Gall, N., ‘Atoms for Brazil: dangers for all’ Foreign Policy, 23, Summer 1976, pp. 155201CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

44. The Ford Administration Proposals of 28 October 1976, involved a 3-year moratorium on domestic reprocessing and new international agreements on control of plutonium and storage of spent nuclear fuel. It also stimulated the ‘Ford-Mitre’ study which formed the basis for the Carter Administration's policy. Kaiser, K.: ‘The Great Nuclear Debate: German/American Disagreements’ Foreign Policy, 30, Spring 1978, p. 93Google Scholar.

45. Brenner, M.: ‘Carter's non-proliferation policy’ Orbis, 22(2) Summer 1978, p. 333Google Scholar; Williams, and Deese, , op. cit., pp. 197198Google Scholar and Nye, J. S., ‘Non-proliferation: A long term strategy’ Foreign Affairs, LVI, 3, April 1978 pp. 601623CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

46. For a discussion of the content of the 1978 Act see Williams, F.: ‘The United States Congress and Non-Proliferation’, International Security, Fall 1978, 3:2, pp. 4560CrossRefGoogle Scholar. On its wider implications see McGrew, A. G., ‘Nuclear Revisionism: the United States and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act of 1978’, Millenium, 7:3, Winter 19781979, pp. 237250CrossRefGoogle Scholar

47. For an analysis of the issues encountered in the initial negotiations see R. Imai ‘Nuclear Safeguards’ Adelphi Paper no. 86, IISS, London, 1972. The detailed EURATOM/IAEA/US situation is rather complex. The 1957 Euratom Treaty between the six included provisions for a safeguards system. Euratom then negotiated an Agreement for Co-operation with the United States under which Euratom would act as the safeguarding agency for materials and facilities supplied by the United States. This agreement also enabled Euratom to retransfer nuclear materials and equipment and reprocess reactor fuel without having to obtain United States consent, and not automatically subject to IAEA safeguards. The prospect of the five (later seven) Euratom non-nuclear weapon states adhering to the NPT meant that Euratom and IAEA would be administering parallel full-scope safeguards systems to the same states: to avoid this costly and needless duplication, an agreement was negotiated between the seven Euratom non-nuclear weapon states, the Euratom organization and the IAEA delineating the safeguarding functions of the latter two organizations. This entered into force on 21 February 1977. The Euratom nuclear weapon states also negotiated ‘voluntary’ safeguarding arrangements for their civil nuclear activities. The UK/Euratom/IAEA agreement entered into force in August 1978, while the equivalent agreement with France became operative during 1981.

48. McGrew, op cit., p. 242

49. cf. K. Kaiser, op. cit., pp. 83–110 and Pierre Lellouche, op. cit.

50. For a concise discussion of INFCE and its outcome see Clausen, P.‘Nuclear Conference Yields Potential New Consensus’ Arms Control Today, vol. 9, no. 6, June 1979, pp. 15Google Scholar.

51. NPT/CONF/II/CI/2, p. 2.

52. Ibid., p. 4.

53. Ibid., pp. 6 and 7.

54. NPT/CONF/II/C/II/34, p. 4.

55. Ibid., p. 5.

56. Ibid.

57. Ibid., p. 7.

58. IAEA/52/NPT/6, p. 7.

59. NPT/13, Rev 1. pp. 2–4.

60. NPT/CONF.II/CII/11 and NPT/40, p. 4.

61. NPT/55 p.la. - statement by President of the Conference I. T. Kittani (Iraq).

62. NPT/56, p. 1.

63. The IAEA decided to set up this committee, open to all member states, in June 1980, and it held its first meeting in the autumn of that year. Its terms of reference involve advising the IAEA Board of Governors on ways and means in which supplies of nuclear material, equipment and technology and fuel cycle services can be assured on a more predictable and long-term basis in accordance with mutually acceptable considerations of non-proliferation.

64. cf. Dunn, L. A. and Overhold, W. H., ‘The Next Phase in Nuclear Proliferation Research’ Orbis, vol. 20, 2Summer 1976, pp. 497524Google Scholar.

65. At least one well-known piece of theoretical writing refutes this argument. See M. Kaplan's discussion of the ‘Unit Veto’ system generated by a world of nuclear states in his System and Process in International Politics (Wiley, 1957), pp. 5052Google Scholar.

66. Again, there is some theoretical literature on multi-polarity and stability which can be extended to nuclear armed states and seen as refutation of this view. See for example, Deutch, K. W. and Singer, J. D., ‘Multipolar Power Systems and International Stability’, World Politics, 16, 3, April 1964, pp. 390406CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

67. cf. NPT/CONF/CII/34, p. 3.

68. This argument is developed more fully in Kapur, A., ‘The Nuclear Spread: A Third World View’ Third World Quarterly, January 1980, II, 1, pp. 6164Google Scholar.

69. This outline is contained in CD/130, 30 July 1980: ‘Tripartite Report to the Committee on Disarmament’ submitted by Permanent Representatives of USSR, UK and USA.