1 Cooper, Helene and Meyers, Steven Lee, ‘Salvaging US Diplomacy Amid Division’, The New York Times (28 December 2007)Google Scholar .

2 Actually, local politics can affect all international actors' abilities to exercise influence, not just state actors'. Transnational terrorist organisations like Al-Qaeda and international organisations like the UN see their efforts at influence distorted by local politics.

3 This is an issue frequently recognised by practitioners but overlooked by policymakers who think of International Relations in terms of states' rational interests and thereby fail to take into account, all too often, the effects of a target state's local politics on an external power's policy's ultimate outcome. In political science, theory has gone even further, ignoring these dynamics completely. Realist analyses dominated studies of foreign relations for decades, taking the state – as a rational, unified actor – to be the appropriate unit of analysis. At the apex of such works, scholars frowned upon reductivism and gave the structure of the international system primacy as the explanatory variable in world politics. The costs of including domestic variables in theories of international politics were considered high: diminished parsimony, reduced generalisability, and less predictive ability. Considerations of domestic factors meant a theory was overly descriptive and inadequately explanatory. See, Waltz, Kenneth N., Theory of International Politics (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1979)Google Scholar .

4 Chan, Steve, ‘In Search of Democratic Peace: Problems and Promise’, Mershon International Studies Review, 41:1 (May 1997), pp. 59–91CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; MacMillan, John, ‘Beyond the Separate Democratic Peace’, Journal of Peace Research, 40:2 (March 2003), pp. 233–243CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Russett, Bruce, Layne, Christopher, Spiro, David E., Doyle, Michael W., ‘The Democratic Peace’, International Security, 19:4 (Spring 1995), pp. 164–184CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Doyle, Michael W., ‘Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs’, Philosophy and Public Affairs, 12:3 (Summer 1983), pp. 205–235Google Scholar . Studies of the democratic peace do consider whether the democratic peace (if accepted) is better understood as monadic (a democracy is less likely to engage in war) or dyadic (democracies are less likely to engage in war with other democracies). Analyses assuming the dyadic proposition presume a resonance (in terms of norms, institutions, etc.) between democratic states that diminishes the likelihood that they will go to war against each other.

5 Many theorists did begin to reject the realist assumption of the state as a rational, unitary actor, but their focus was on how domestic factors influence the making of foreign policy and thereby International Relations more generally. These theorists recognised the explanatory utility of domestic actors and of the dynamics by which their preferences are consolidated into foreign policy. For an excellent overview of realism, neo-realism, and challenges to their simplifying assumptions about the state as rational, unitary actor, see, Milner, Helen V., ‘Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of International, American, and Comparative Politics’, International Organization, 52:4, International Organization at Fifty: Exploration and Contestation in the Study of World Politics (Autumn 1998), pp. 759–786CrossRefGoogle Scholar . An early study looked at ‘internal politics and their relation to the foreign policy of the various states that became involved in the Corinthian War.’ See, Hamilton, Charles D., Sparta's Bitter Victories: Politics and Diplomacy in the Corinthian War (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1979)Google Scholar . Holsti, Kalevi Jaakko wrote that ‘The problem of contemporary and future politics, it turns out, is essentially a problem of domestic politics.’ Holsti, Kalevi Jaakko, The State, War, and the State of War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), p. 15CrossRefGoogle Scholar . And many other theorists began to study the domestic inputs that influence the objectives, means, and effects of a country's international behavior, with examinations of how a country's governmental structure, balance of public opinion, bureaucratic organisation, and civil society affect its foreign relations. Among these are: Small, Melvin, Democracy & Diplomacy: The Impact of Domestic Politics on US Foreign Policy, 1789–1994 (Johns Hopkins University Press: 1994)Google Scholar ; Fearon, James D., ‘Domestic Politics, Foreign Policy, and Theories of International Relations’, Annual Review of Political Science, 1:1, pp. 289–313CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Garfinkel, Michelle R., ‘Domestic Politics and International Conflict’, The American Economic Review, 84:5 (December 1994), pp. 1294–1309Google Scholar ; Halperin, Morton H., Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Brookings Institution Press, 1974)Google Scholar ; Wang, Kevin H., ‘Presidential Responses to Foreign Policy: Rational Choice and Domestic Politics’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40:1 (March 1996), pp. 68–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Smith, Alastair, ‘International Crises and Domestic Politics’, American Political Science Review, 92:3 (September 1998), pp. 623–638CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Lumsdaine, David, ‘The Intertwining of International and Domestic Politics’, Polity, 29:2 (Winter 1996), pp. 299–306CrossRefGoogle Scholar . For some excellent work on the role of domestic politics in the making of foreign policy, see, Milner, Helen V., Interests, Institutions and Information: Domestic Politics and International Relations (Princeton University Press, 1997)Google Scholar ; Putnam, Robert D., ‘Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games’, International Organization, 42:3 (Summer 1988), pp. 427–460CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Evans, Peter B., Jacobson, Harold K., and Putnam, Robert D. (eds), Double-Edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1993)Google Scholar ; Schweller, Randall L., ‘Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In’, International Security, 19:1 (Summer 1994), pp. 72–107CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Pollins, Brian M.and Schweller, Randall L., ‘Linking the Levels: The Long Wave and Shifts in US Foreign Policy, 1790–1993’, American Journal of Political Science, 43:2 (April 1999), pp. 431–464CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Regan, Patrick M., ‘Substituting Policies During US Interventions in Internal Conflicts: A Little of This, A Little of That’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44:1 (February 2000), pp. 90–106CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Regan, Patrick M., ‘Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40:2 (June 1996), pp. 336–359CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Snyder, Jack, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991)Google Scholar ; Keohane, Robert and Milner, Helen, ‘Internationalization and Domestic Politics’, in Keohane, and Milner, (eds), Internationalization and Domestic Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 3–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Simmons, Beth A., Who Adjusts? Domestic Sources of Foreign Economic Policy during the Interwar Years 1923–1939 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994)Google Scholar .

6 Allison, Graham T., ‘Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis’, The American Political Science Review, 63:3 (September 1969), pp. 689–718CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

7 Ibid., p. 694.

8 Ways of War and Peace, Doyle, Michael W. (New York: W. W. Norton), 1997Google Scholar ; Lipson, Charles, Reliable Partners: How Democracies Have Made a Separate Peace (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003)Google Scholar ; Rummel, R. J., Power Kills: Democracy As a Method of Nonviolence (Somerset, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 2003)Google Scholar .

9 Nossal, Kim Richard, ‘Defense Policy and the Atmospherics of Canada-US Relations; The Case of the Harper Conservatives’, American Review of Canadian Studies, 7:1 (Spring 2007)Google Scholar .

10 For a few examples of analysis of the effects of American domestic politics on US foreign policy, see, Moore, Will H. and Lanoue, David J., ‘Domestic Politics and US Foreign Policy: A Study of Cold War Conflict Behavior’, The Journal of Politics, 65:2 (May, 2003), pp. 376–396CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Aggarwal, Vinod K., Keohane, Robert O. and Yoffie, David B., ‘The Dynamics of Negotiated Protectionism’, The American Political Science Review, 81:2 (June 1987), pp. 345–366CrossRefGoogle Scholar ; Zakaria, Fareed, From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press), 1998Google Scholar ; Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor, ‘Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations’, International Organization, 50:1 (Winter 1996), pp. 109–139CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

11 Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Elliot, Kimberley Ann, Schott, Jeffrey J., Oegg, Barbara (ed.), Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute), 2007Google Scholar .

12 ‘Statement of Administration Policy : H.R. 1 – Implementing the 9/11 Commission Recommendations Act of 2007’, Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget (9 January 2007), p. 6, {http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/legislative/sap/110–1/hr1sap-h.pdf}.

13 Ted Galen Carpenter, ‘A Fortress Built on Quicksand: US Policy Toward Pakistan’, Policy Analysis, 80 (5 January 1987), {http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=946}.

14 For a good, very brief history of Pakistan, see Khan, M. Ilyas, ‘Pakistan's Circular History’, BBC News (11 August 2007)Google Scholar , {http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/6940148.stm}; for a more in-depth look, see ‘Pakistan: Country Study’, Library of Congress – Federal Research Division, {http://lcweb2.loc.gov/frd/cs/pktoc.html}.

15 For an excellent overview of Pakistan's politics, see, Schmidt, John R., ‘The Unraveling of Pakistan’, Survival, 51:3 (June–July 2009), pp. 29–54CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

16 ‘Q+A: Who are the Pakistani Taliban Insurgents?’, Reuters (15 June 2009), {http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE55E0KV20090615}.

17 C. Christine Fair, ‘US-Pakistan Relations: Assassination, Instability, and the Future of US Policy’, Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia, on 16 January 2008.

18 K. Alan Kronstadt, ‘Pakistan-US Relations’, CRS Report for Congress, updated 6 February 2009, Order Code RL33498; ‘The National Security Strategy of the US of America’, The White House (March 2006), p. 39.

19 George Perkovich, interview, Day to Day, National Public Radio (28 December 2007).

20 US policy towards Pakistan in the past was more a function of US interests in other countries in the region than in Pakistan itself. American support for Afghanistan's Mujahideen in their war against the Soviets, in particular, led to US complicity with the Pakistani military and intelligence organisations as they provided assistance to the Afghan fighters. Though the US had supported Pakistan's military during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Americans were deeply concerned about the country's nuclear aspirations. In 1985, Congress passed legislation requiring annual proof that Pakistan had no nuclear weapons for the fiscal year in which aid would be provided. In 1990, the US began a process of disengagement from Afghanistan and Pakistan that to this day rankles Pakistanis. That year, President Bush suspended aid and the US decided not to deliver F-16 fighter aircraft that the Pakistanis had bought in 1989. US sanctions were again imposed in 1998 after Pakistan's nuclear test and in 1999 after the coup that brought General Pervez Musharraf to power. After 9/11, however, the US relaxed many of the sanctions against Pakistan and began working with Musharraf – and supporting him politically – as part of the US strategy in the War on Terror. The Americans supported Musharraf up until it was clear that he could not survive politically and then pressured him to resign. Very recently, on 20 May 2009, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted in a press conference that American policy towards Pakistan has been ‘incoherent’: ‘US Past Pakistan Policy Incoherent, Says Hillary’, The Hindu (21 May 2009), {http://www.thehindu.com/2009/05/21/stories/2009052160851900.htm}.

21 ‘Pakistan: Is a Coup in the Wings?’ Bokhari, Farhan, CBS News (15 March 2009)Google Scholar , {http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/03/15/world/main4866701.shtml}.

22 Akhlaque, Qudssia, ‘US Wants Civilian Rule: Boucher: Need for Free, Fair Polls Stressed’, Dawn (6 April 2006)Google Scholar , {http://www.dawn.com/2006/04/06/top1.htm}.

23 Working closely with Kayani made sense in many ways. A graduate of the US Army Command and General Staff College, Kayani already had established relationships with some prominent American military leaders. Also, the Pakistani army traditionally has played a strong role in Pakistani politics, especially when the civilian governments have faltered; working with Kayani would presumably provide the US with, at the very least, some transparency, hopefully an ‘in’ in the event of a coup, and, at best, the opportunity to promote good governance with a strong ally who could exert leverage over the civilian actors. The downside, obviously, was establishing another alliance with an army leader immediately after the failure of Musharraf and the bad impression left in Pakistan of the US's willingness to support a dictator if doing so would protect its interests. Rohde, David and Gall, Carlotta, ‘In Musharraf's Shadow, A New Hope for Pakistan Rises’, The New York Times (7 January 2008)Google Scholar , {http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/world/asia/07kayani.html}; Dreazen, Yochi J. and Rosenberg, Matthew, ‘Army Chiefs' Bond Bolsters US Hopes in Pakistan’, The Wall Street Journal (21 March 2009)Google Scholar , {http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123759845485301419.html}; Schmitt, Eric, ‘Army Chief in Pakistan Wins Honor from US’, The New York Times (2 April 2008)Google Scholar , {http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/washington/02policy.html?_r=1&sq=army%20chief%20in%20pakistan&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&scp=1&adxnnlx=1207224188-e8mBn0CA9VgrF8JFY8ktdQ&oref=slogin}.

24 Montero, David, ‘Pakistan Drone Attacks to Intensify, Obama Officials Say’, Christian Science Monitor (8 April 2009)Google Scholar , {http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0408/p99s01-duts.html}.

25 Kurlantzick, Josh, ‘Time's Up: The US Needs to Abandon Musharraf Today’, The New Republic (5 November 2007Google Scholar , {http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=print&id=19693}.

26 That the situation had come to the brink of a military coup, however, is probable. US Special Representative Richard Holbrooke and other British and American diplomats reportedly worked very hard with Kayani, Zardari, and Sharif to prevent a military takeover. ‘General Ashfaq Kayani Pushes Feuding Leaders Close to a Deal’, Zahid Hussain and Jeremy Page, The Times (14 March 2009), {http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5904413.ece}.

27 Frédéric Grare ‘Rethinking Western Strategies Toward Pakistan: An Action Agenda for the US and Europe’, Carnegie Endowment Report (July 2007), {http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/grare_pakistan_final.pdf}.

28 Cohen, Craig and Chollet, Derek, ‘When $10 Billion Is Not Enough: Rethinking US Strategy toward Pakistan’, The Washington Quarterly, 30:2 (Spring 2007), pp. 7–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

29 Barack Obama, transcript, ‘Meet the Press’ (7 December 2008), {http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28097635}.

30 K. Alan Kronstadt, ‘Pakistan-US Relations’, CRS Report for Congress, updated 6 February 2009, Order Code RL33498; ‘The National Security Strategy of the US of America’, The White House (March 2006), p. 49.

31 ‘Secret Order Lets US Raid Al-Qaeda in Many Countries’, New York Times (10 November 2008).

32 Kurlantzick, Josh, ‘Time's Up: The US Needs to Abandon Musharraf Today’, The New Republic (5 November 2007Google Scholar , {http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=print&id=19693}.

33 ‘US Aid “Failing to Reach Target”’, BBC News (16 May 2008); ‘Doubts Engulf an American Aid Plan for Pakistan’, New York Times (25 December 2007); ‘Pakistan Military “Misspent” Up to 70 per cent of American Aid’, The Guardian (28 February 2008); ‘Combating Terrorism: Increased Oversight and Accountability Needed over Pakistan Reimbursement Claims for Coalition Support Funds’, US General Accounting Office, GAO-08-806 (June 2008).

34 Ahmed, Samina, ‘The US and Terrorism in Southwest Asia’, International Security, 26:3 (Winter 2001/02), p. 90 (pp. 79–93)Google Scholar .

35 Christine Fair, C., ‘US-Pakistan Relations’, p. 2Google Scholar .

36 Tellis, Ashley, ‘Pakistan's Mixed Record on Anti-Terrorism’, Interview by Gwertzman, Bernard, Council on Foreign Relations (6 February 2008)Google Scholar , http://www.cfr.org/publication/15424/; C. Christine Fair, ‘US-Pakistan Relations’, p. 2; Ashley Tellis, ‘US-Pakistan Relations: Assassination, Instability, and the Future of US Policy’, Congressional Testimony, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia, Washington, DC (16 January 2008), p. 7.

37 C. Christine Fair, ‘US-Pakistan Relations’, p. 2.

38 Saeed Shah, ‘Islamic Fundamentalists Lose Big in Pakistan Vote’, McClatchy Newspapers (19 February 2008), {http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/28113.html}.

39 Rohde, David, ‘American Embrace of Musharraf Irks Pakistanis’, The New York Times (29 February 2008), pp. A1, A6Google Scholar .

40 K. Alan Kronstadt, ‘Pakistan-US Relations’, p. 86.

41 ‘Pakistan's Nuclear Oversight Reforms’, ch. 5 in Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A. Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, {http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/nbm/nuclear-black-market-dossier-a-net-assesment/pakistans-nuclear-oversight-reforms/}.

42 ‘A. Q. Khan and Onward Proliferation from Pakistan’, ch. 3 in Nuclear Black Markets: Pakistan, A. Q. Khan and the Rise of Proliferation Networks, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, {http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/nbm/nuclear-black-market-dossier-a-net-assesment/aq-khan-and-onward-prolifertion-from-pakistan/}.

43 ‘Pakistan's Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues’, Paul K. Kerr, Mary Beth Nikitin, RL34248, Congressional Research Service (9 May 2009).

44 ‘Pakistan's Nuclear Oversight Reforms’.

45 ‘US Aid Under Fire in Pakistan Border Area’, Associated Press (26 February 2009), {http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29415610/}.

46 Jain, Arvind K. (ed.), The Political Economy of Corruption (New York, NY: Routledge, 2001), p. 148CrossRefGoogle Scholar .

47 ‘Workers in Unity at All Pakistan Labour Conference’, Pakistan Trade Union Defence Campaign (January 2007), {http://www.ptudc.org/content/view/110/36/}; ‘Economic Disparity in Pakistan: An Analysis’, Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (January 1998), {http://www.jamaat.org/issues/economic.html}; ‘Country Profile: Pakistan’, op. cit.

48 For a thoughtful analysis on how to improve foreign assistance, taking into account the filter effect of local politics, see, Korb, Lawrence J., ‘Reassessing Foreign Assistance to Pakistan’, Center for American Progress (2 April 2009)Google Scholar , {http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/04/pakistan_korb.html}.

49 DeYoung, Karen, ‘Pakistan Wants More From US’, Washington Post (11 February 2009), p. A11Google Scholar .

50 Rajagopalan, Rajesh, ‘The US and the South Asia Tangle Opinion’, The Hindu, (9 May 2003)Google Scholar , {http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/2003/05/09/stories/2003050900531000.htm}. This is a very compelling article about the limitations of US pressure on Pakistan vis-à-vis India, given the country's own obduracy and America's strategic priorities; Hussain, Syed Talat, ‘A Game of Nerves’, Newsline (May 2005)Google Scholar , {http://www.newsline.com.pk/newsMay2005/cover1may2005.htm}.

51 This may change, however. Even the minor negotiations Musharraf undertook with India were lambasted by the religious extremists. In the February 2008 elections, these people and their political party, the MMA, lost significant ground but if analysts' worst-case scenario comes true and fundamentalists gain political ground, they may force a return to elevated tension between Pakistan and India.

52 Hadar, Leon T., ‘Pakistan: Strategic Ally or Unreliable Client?’, USA Today (1 January 2003)Google Scholar .

53 Goldberg, Suzanne, ‘Bhutto Pitch for Power Urges US to See Her as Best Ally Against Terror’, The Guardian (26 September 2007)Google Scholar , {http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/sep/26/usa.pakistan}.

54 ‘Poll: Bin Laden Tops Musharraf in Pakistan’, CNN.com (11 September 2007), {http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/11/poll.pakistanis/index.html}; ‘Less than Half of Pakistani Public Supports Attacking Al Qaeda, Cracking Down on Fundamentalists’, WorldPublicOpinion.org (31October 2007),{http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/424.php?lb=hmpg1&pnt=424&nid=&id=&gclid=CMHq-uq7wJICFRFBFQod6BlUcg}.

55 ‘Sharif Slams Alliance with US’, CNN.com/asia (14 January 2008), {http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/14/pakistan.sharif.ap/index.html}.

56 Leon T. Hadar, ‘Pakistan: Strategic Ally or Unreliable Client?’

57 Bajoria, Jayshree, ‘US Scrambles to Remake Pakistan Policy’, Council on Foreign Relations, Daily Analysis, (21 February 2008)Google Scholar , {http://www.cfr.org/publication/15520/us_scrambles_to_remake_pakistan_policy.html}.

58 Rohde, David, Gall, Carlotta, Schmitt, Eric and Sanger, David E., ‘US Officials See Waste in Billions Sent to Pakistan’, The New York Times (24 December 2007)Google Scholar , {http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/24/world/asia/24military.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&pagewanted=all}; Wright, Robin, ‘US Payments to Pakistan Face New Scrutiny: Little Accounting for Costs to Support Ally's Troops’, Washington Post (21 February 2008), p. A01Google Scholar {http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/20/AR2008022002741_pf.html}.

59 Ibid.

60 ‘Call for Shift in US Policy Toward Pakistan’, AFP (16 January 2008), {http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gAhcImABf-fUqLJDvdxpqFzQ9DYQ}.

61 Innocent, Malou, ‘The Shah of Pakistan?’, The Washington Post (23 January 2008)Google Scholar , {http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/23/AR2008012303393.html}.