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² I use ‘economic sanctions’ and ‘sanctions’ interchangeably throughout the article. For ‘social sanctions’ (defined later), I use that label. ‘Material sanctions’ refer to material punishments in general, including economic sanctions and military intervention.

³ See, for example, Downs, George W. and Rocke, David M., Optimal Imperfection? Domestic Uncertainty and Institutions in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995)Google Scholar; Finnemore, Martha and Sikkink, Kathryn, ‘International norm dynamics and political change’, International Organization, 52:4 (1998), pp. 887–917CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Friman, H. Richard (ed.), The Politics of Leverage in International Relations: Name, Shame, and Sanction (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kelley, Judith G. and Simmons, Beth A., ‘Politics by number: Indicators as social pressure in international relations’, American Journal of Political Science, 59:1 (2015), pp. 55–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Nossal, Kim Richard, ‘International sanctions as international punishment’, International Organization, 4:2 (1989), pp. 301–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴ On the uses of sanctions, see Giumelli, Francesco, Coercing, Constraining, Signalling: Explaining UN and EU Sanctions after the Cold War (Colchester: ECPR Press, 2011)Google Scholar.

⁵ Katzenstein, Peter J., ‘Introduction: Alternative perspectives on national security’, in Katzenstein, P. J. (ed.), The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996), pp. 1–32Google Scholar (p. 5).

⁶ Chayes, Abram and Chayes, Antonia Handler, ‘On compliance’, International Organization, 47:2 (1993), pp. 175–205CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Shannon, Vaughn P., ‘Norms are what states make of them: the political psychology of norm violation’, International Studies Quarterly, 44:2 (2000), pp. 293–316CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁸ DeMeritt, ‘International organizations and government killing’; Goertz, Gary and Diehl, Paul F., ‘Toward a theory of international norms: Some conceptual and measurement issues’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36:4 (1992), pp. 634–64CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kim and Sikkink, ‘Explaining the deterrence effect of human rights prosecutions’; Thompson, Alexander, ‘The rational enforcement of international law: Solving the sanctioners’ dilemma’, International Theory, 1:2 (2009), pp. 307–21CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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¹⁰ Panke and Petersohn, ‘Why international norms disappear sometimes’. Of course, some norms may be violated regularly without dying, even if violations are not consistently punished. For example, despite norms to the contrary, civilians are frequently targeted in war. Similarly, norms against torture are well codified, yet many states continue to practice it.

¹¹ Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch and Jennifer M. Dixon, ‘Norm Strength and the Norm Life Cycle’, unpublished manuscript (2018); Panke and Petersohn, ‘Why international norms disappear sometimes’; Percy, ‘Mercenaries’; Sandholtz, ‘Dynamics of international norm change’.

¹² Axelrod, ‘An evolutionary approach to norms’; Donno, ‘Who is punished?’; Thompson, ‘The rational enforcement of international law’.

¹³ Vennesson, Pascal, ‘War under transnational surveillance: Framing ambiguity and the politics of shame’, Review of International Studies, 40:1 (2014), pp. 25–51CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁴ Donno, ‘Who is punished?’.

¹⁵ Nadelmann, ‘Global prohibition regimes’.

¹⁶ On metanorms, see Axelrod, ‘An evolutionary approach to norms’; Stone, Alec, ‘What is a supranational constitution? An essay in International Relations theory’, Review of Politics, 56:3 (1994), pp. 441–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Drezner, Daniel W., ‘The power and peril of international regime complexity’, Perspectives on Politics, 7:1 (2009), pp. 65–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Reus-Smit, Christian, ‘The constitutional structure of international society and the nature of fundamental institutions’, International Organization, 51:4 (1997), pp. 555–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

¹⁷ Axelrod, ‘An evolutionary approach to norms’.

¹⁸ Thompson, ‘The rational enforcement of international law’.

¹⁹ Axelrod, ‘An evolutionary approach to norms’; Horne, Christine, ‘Explaining norm enforcement’, Rationality and Society, 19:2 (2007), pp. 139–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁰ Horne, ‘Explaining norm enforcement’; Thompson, ‘The rational enforcement of international law’.

²¹ Human rights clauses in trade agreements, which allow countries to suspend trade privileges in response to partners’ poor human rights, are one exception. While still subject to selective use, some research suggests they can be effective. See, for example, Hafner-Burton, Emilie, Forced to Be Good: Why Trade Agreements Boost Human Rights (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2009)Google Scholar.

²² Nevertheless, threats of US sanctions for violating non-proliferation norms reduced cases in which there is a need to punish violations. Miller, Nicholas L., ‘The secret success of nonproliferation sanctions’, International Organization, 68:4 (2014), pp. 913–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²³ Klotz, ‘Norms and sanctions’, p. 177.

²⁴ Other tools, like international prosecutions, are available for only select formally institutionalised norms.

²⁵ Johnston, Social States.

²⁶ Similarly, consumer and other types of boycotts are non-state social sanctions designed to isolate, shame, and/or censure businesses or organisations (often connected to government policies, as in South Africa or Israel) and may also affect their bottom lines.

²⁷ See Friman (ed.), The Politics of Leverage in International Relations for an overview.

²⁸ Meernik, James, Aloisi, Rosa, Sowell, Marsha, and Nichols, Angela, ‘The impact of human rights organizations on naming and shaming campaigns’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 65:2 (2012), pp. 233–56 (p. 233)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. See also Hafner-Burton, Emilie M., ‘Sticks and stones: Naming and shaming and the human rights enforcement problem’, International Organization, 62:4 (2008), pp. 689–716CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Lebovic, James H. and Voeten, Erik, ‘The politics of shame: the condemnation of country human rights practices in the UNCHR’, International Studies Quarterly, 50:4 (2006), pp. 861–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Murdie, Amanda M. and Davis, David R., ‘Shaming and blaming: Using events data to assess the impact of human rights INGOs’, International Studies Quarterly, 56:1 (2012), pp. 1–16CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁹ DeMeritt, ‘International organizations and government killing’; Hafner-Burton, ‘Sticks and stones’; Johnston, Social States; Kelley and Simmons, ‘Politics by number’; Murdie and Davis, ‘Shaming and blaming’.

³⁰ De Nevers, ‘Imposing international norms’.

³¹ Peterson, Timothy M. and Drury, A. Cooper, ‘Sanctioning violence: the effect of third-party economic coercion on militarized conflict’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 55:4 (2011), pp. 580–605CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³² Certainly, the costs of long-term comprehensive economic sanctions can add up, even if they initially appeared to be lower-cost than military action (whose costs, if also extended, tend to dwarf other tools).

³³ Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Schott, Jeffrey J., Elliott, Kimberly Ann, and Oegg, Barbara, Economic Sanctions Reconsidered (3^rd edn, Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2007), p. 3Google Scholar.

³⁴ Heupel, Monika, Hisrchmann, Gisla, and Zürn, Michael, ‘International organisations and human rights: What direct authority needs for its legitimation’, Review of International Studies, 44:2 (2017), pp. 343–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Kranz, Kathrin, ‘European Union arms embargoes: the relationship between institutional design and norms’, Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 29:3 (2016), pp. 970–96CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

³⁵ Targeted states unsurprisingly tend to contest sanctions legitimacy in specific cases, and calls to end ‘unilateral coercive measures’ more generally have grown in recent years.

³⁶ Drezner, Daniel W., The Sanctions Paradox: Economic Statecraft and International Relations (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1999)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Nielsen, Richard A., ‘Rewarding human rights: Selective aid sanctions against repressive states’, International Studies Quarterly, 57:4 (2013), pp. 791–803CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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³⁹ Cox and Drury, ‘Democratic sanctions’; Joakim Kreutz, ‘Hard Measures by a Soft Sower? Sanctions Policy of the European Union 1981–2004’, Bonn International Center for Conversion, Paper 45 (2005).

⁴⁰ Merlingen, Michael, Mudde, Cas, and Sedelmeier, Ulrich, ‘The right and the righteous? European norms, domestic politics, and sanctions against Austria’, Journal of Common Market Studies, 39:1 (2001), pp. 59–77CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁴¹ Horne, ‘Explaining norm enforcement’.

⁴² Hufbauer et al., Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, p. 160.

⁴³ Germany issued a few brief arms embargoes to Turkey over human rights violations in the 1990s in response to domestic political pressure.

⁴⁴ Mercer, Jonathan, Reputation and International Politics (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996), p. 45Google Scholar.

⁴⁵ Charron, Andrea, UN Sanctions and Conflict: Responding to Peace and Security Threats (New York: Routledge, 2011)Google Scholar; Cortright, David and Lopez, George A., Smart Sanctions: Targeting Economic Statecraft (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2002)Google Scholar.

⁴⁶ See below for information on data.

⁴⁷ Of course, arms embargoes cannot control (and may increase markets for) illicit arms supplies.

⁴⁸ T. Clifton Morgan, Navin A. Bapat, and Yoshiharu Kobayashi, Threat and Imposition of Sanctions Data 4.0 (2013)

⁴⁹ Erickson, Jennifer L., ‘Stopping the legal flow of weapons: Compliance with arms embargoes, 1981–2004’, Journal of Peace Research, 50:2 (2013), pp. 159–74CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For studies of UN arms embargoes, see Charron, UN Sanctions and Conflict; Fruchart, Damien, Holtom, Paul, Wezeman, Siemon T., Strandow, Daniel, and Wallensteen, Peter, United Nations Arms Embargoes: Their Impact on Arms Flows and Target Behaviour (Solna/Uppsala: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute/Uppsala University, 2007)Google Scholar; Moore, Matthew, ‘Arming the embargoed: a supply-side understanding of arms embargo violations’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54:4 (2010), pp. 1–24CrossRefGoogle Scholar. For EU arms embargoes, see Kreutz, ‘Hard Measures by a Soft Sower?’. For UN, EU, and US arms embargoes, see Brzoska, Michael, ‘Measuring the effectiveness of arms embargoes’, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 14:2 (2008), pp. 1–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁵⁰ Sending states are among the top thirty small and major conventional arms exporters, according to Small Arms Survey and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czech Republic (Czechoslovakia), France, (West) Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Israel, Italy, Russia (USSR), South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States. For more on sources and coding for the Arms Embargo Dataset, see Erickson, ‘Stopping the legal flow of weapons’.

⁵¹ Kadera, Kelly M. and Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, ‘Manna from Heaven or forbidden fruit? The (ab)use of control variables in research on international conflict’, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 22:4 (2005), pp. 273–5CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁵³ Gibney, Mark and Dalton, Matthew, ‘The political terror scale’, Policy Studies and Developing Nations, 4 (1996), pp. 73–84Google Scholar.

⁵⁴ Most human rights data, including PTS, focus on physical integrity rights from these sources. While historically DOS reports may be biased against left-wing governments and Amnesty's in favour of them, there is ‘absolutely no reason to believe that the vast majority of the differences between the reports are systematic’. Poe, Steven C., Carey, Sabine C., and Vazquez, Tanya C., ‘How are these pictures different? A quantitative comparison of the US State Department and Amnesty International Human Rights Reports, 1976–1995’, Human Rights Quarterly, 23 (2001), pp. 650–77 (p. 670)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. The correlation between Amnesty and DOS PTS scores after 1989 is 0.821.

⁵⁵ Murdie and Peksen, ‘The impact of human rights INGO activities’.

⁵⁶ Jay Ulfelder and Benjamin Valentino, ‘Assessing Risks of State-Sponsored Mass Killing’, unpublished report of the Political Instability Task Force (2008), p. 2.

⁵⁷ Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Wallensteen, Peter, Eriksson, Mikael, Sollenberg, Margareta, and Strand, Håvard, ‘Armed conflict, 1946–2001: a new dataset’, version 4–2007, Journal of Peace Research, 39:5 (2002), pp. 615–37CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁶⁰ Caprioli and Trumbore, ‘Rhetoric versus reality’.

⁶¹ This applies Byman's Deadly Connections approach beyond the Middle East. The correlation between the DOS list and the expanded list is .703. TOP is available at: {http://www.start.umd.edu} accessed November 2012.

⁶² Twelve counterterrorism conventions were open for accession between 1981 and 2010. See {http://treaties.un.org} accessed November 2012.

⁶³ United Nations Statistics Division, National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, available at: {http://unstats.un.org} accessed 1 May 2006 and updated in 2012.

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⁷⁰ Singh and Way, ‘The correlates of nuclear proliferation’.

⁷¹ Dyad-years in which there is record of small or major conventional arms exports from an exporting state to a potential target are coded 1; years with no record of any arms transfer are coded 0. Coding based on Erickson, Jennifer L., Dangerous Trade: Arms Exports, Human Rights, and International Reputation (New York: Columbia University Press, 2015)Google Scholar.

⁷² Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox.

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⁷⁴ Douglas M. Gibler, International Military Alliances, 1648–2008 (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2009). I use dataset v4, corrected to include NATO members admitted in the 2004 and 2009 rounds of enlargement.

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⁷⁸ Byman, Deadly Connections.

⁷⁹ Krain, Matthew, ‘Democracy, internal war, and state-sponsored mass murder’, Human Rights Review, 1:3 (2000), pp. 40–8CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Valentino, Benjamin, Huth, Paul, and Balch-Lindsay, Dylan, ‘“Draining the sea”: Mass killing and guerrilla warfare’, International Organization, 58:2 (2004), pp. 375–407CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁸⁰ Of a total 54,555 dyad-years from 1990–2005, 7532 (13.81 per cent) faced general economic sanctions, and 7,407 (8.6 per cent) of 86,106 dyad-years faced arms embargoes from 1990–2010. This far exceeds the two hundred observations needed to generate unbiased logit estimates: King, Gary and Zeng, Langche, ‘Explaining rare events in international relations’, International Organization, 55 (2001), pp. 693–715CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁸¹ Researchers should avoid treating ordinal variables as continuous in an OLS regression, since the distances between categories are unknown and violate linear regression assumptions.

⁸² Meernik, James, Krueger, Eric L., and Poe, Steven C., ‘Testing models of U.S. foreign policy: Foreign aid during and after the Cold War’, Journal of Politics, 60:1 (1998), pp. 63–85CrossRefGoogle Scholar. Although information is arguably more instantly available in one dataset's most recent years, this is not the case with the full period covered, nor is it clear how it might systematically change government decision-making, if at all.

⁸³ Since CLARIFY does not accommodate dyadic panel data, I use the Delta method to calculate the predicted probabilities of the main independent variables of interest.

⁸⁴ Amnesty-coded human rights produce no substantively different results from the DOS variable.

⁸⁵ Using the DOS list alone also produces positive and significant coefficients. Support for anti-terrorism treaties is insignificant, presumably because of the extremely high membership rates.

⁸⁶ It becomes significant only with the removal of human rights from the model.

⁸⁷ Removing oil production from the relevant models produces no significant changes for the human rights or interstate conflict coefficients.

⁸⁸ The human rights analyses end at 2006, because the (non-lagged) human rights organisations variable ends at 2005. Excluding that variable, the human rights coefficients for 2007–10 are positive and significant.

⁸⁹ Robert Kahn, ‘Have Sanctions Become the Swiss Army Knife of U.S. Foreign Policy?’, Council on Foreign Relations (24 July 2017), available at: {https://www.cfr.org/blog/have-sanctions-become-swiss-army-knife-us-foreign-policy} accessed 4 January 2018; Jacob Lew, ‘Remarks on the Evolution of Sanctions and Lessons for the Future’, Carnegie Endowment Peace (30 March 2016), available at: {https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0398.aspx} accessed 4 January 2018; Richard Haass, ‘Sanctioning madness’, Foreign Affairs, 76:6 (1997), pp. 74–85; Adam Szubin, ‘Remarks’, Center for a New American Security (15 April 2016), available at: {https://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl0425.aspx} accessed 4 January 2018.

⁹⁰ Duquet, Nils, Business as Usual? Assessing the Impact of the Arab Spring on European Arms Export Control Policies (Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2014)Google Scholar.

⁹¹ Horne, ‘Explaining norm enforcement’.

⁹² See Escribà-Folch, Abel and Wright, Joseph, ‘Dealing with tyranny: International sanctions and the survival of authoritarian rulers’, International Studies Quarterly, 54 (2010), pp. 335–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar; McLean, Elena V. and Whang, Taehee, ‘Friends or foes? Major trading partners and the success of economic sanctions’, International Studies Quarterly, 54 (2010), pp. 427–47CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁹³ Scholars typically count sanctions that change target behaviour in accordance with sender expectations as ‘successful’ (Cortright and Lopez, Smart Sanctions; Hufbauer et al., Economic Sanctions Reconsidered). Of course, defining and measuring success may vary, based on senders’ goals and expectations and targets’ responses – without even considering how to establish causality. ‘Success’ can also be difficult to detect, because those states with stronger incentives to resolve their issues may do so before attracting sanctions (Drezner, The Sanctions Paradox; Miller, ‘The secret success of nonproliferation sanctions’). On defining and measuring sanctions success/effectiveness, see Baldwin, David, Economic Statecraft (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985)Google Scholar and Brzoska, ‘Measuring the effectiveness of arms embargoes’.

⁹⁴ See Early, Bryan, Busted Sanctions: Explaining Why Economic Sanctions Fail (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2015)Google Scholar; Galtung, Johan, ‘On the effects of international economic sanctions: With examples from the case of Rhodesia’, World Politics, 19:3 (1967), pp. 378–416CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Haass, ‘Sanctioning madness’; Pape, Robert A., ‘Why economic sanctions do not work’, International Security, 22:2 (1997), pp. 90–136CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁹⁶ ‘The punishment of Sisi Fuss’, Economist (10 June 2017), p. 49.