Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-25T05:53:30.105Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Unemployment and Fiscal Activism in a Small Open Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Get access

Extract

SECTION 1 : INTRODUCTION

An endemically high rate of unemployment has always been one of the most pressing problems facing policy makers in Ireland. Since 1980 the unemployment rate has risen inexorably, as illustrated in Figure 1. Furthermore, on the basis of the most recent medium-term projections to 1990 (Bacon (1986)), the unemployment rate is set to continue to rise, albeit at a much slower rate, to over 18 per cent of the labour force. This more recent rise in unemployment is, of course, a phenomenon not confined to Ireland, but shared, in one form or another, by many other European economies.

All political groups in Ireland place great emphasis on their policies to alleviate unemployment. The extent of direct state intervention in the Irish labour market can be seen clearly from Figure 2. Employment in the sheltered marketed services sector grew over the period 1973-83 by 18.4 percent (56900), while employment in the non-market sector (public administration and other non-marketed services) grew by 40.2 percent (68700). While industrial employment remained relatively stagnant, displaying cyclical highs in 1974 and 1980, agricultural employment declined steadily. Over the same period, the labour force grew by 17.7 percent (196900) and migration abroad, having declined from a net outflow of about 60000 per annum in 1959 to a zero net flow by 1970, became a net inflow during the years of 1973-78, but has returned to a net outflow since 1983 (Figure 3).

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1986 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

(*)

The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin. I am indebted to my ESRl colleague, John Fitzgerald, for collaboration on some of the work described in this paper.

References

REFERENCES

Andrews, M.J., et al (1985), Models of the UK Economy and the Real Wage Employment Debate, National Institute Economic Review, May, pp. 4152.Google Scholar
Bacon, P. (1986), Medium-Term Outlook: 1986–1990, Dublin, Economic & Social Research Institute.Google Scholar
Berndt, E. and Wood, D.O. (1979), Technology, Prices and the Derived Demand for Energy, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, pp. 259268.Google Scholar
Blundell, R., et al (1986), Unemployment, Labour Force Participation and Hours of Work, paper presented at European Production Study Group, Conference on Unemployment in Europe, Maastricht, April 1719.Google Scholar
Bradley, J. and Fanning, C. (1984), Aggregate Supply, Aggregate Demand and Income Distribution in Ireland: A Macrosectoral Analysis, Dublin, The Economic and Social Research Institute, Paper N° 115.Google Scholar
Bradley, J. and Fitzgerald, J.D. (1986), Industrial Output and Factor Input Determination in an Econometric Model of a Small Open Economy, paper presented at International Conference on Economic Modelling in the OECD Economies, London, 24–27 March.Google Scholar
Bradley, J. et al (1985), Medium-Term Analysis of Fiscal Policy in Ireland: A Macroecono-metric Study of the Period 1967–1980, Dublin, The Economic & Social Research Institute, Paper N° 122.Google Scholar
Bradley, J. and Prendergast, C. (1986), Real Wages and Employment in Ireland in the 1970s, mimeo, The Economic & Social Research Institute.Google Scholar
Brittain, A. (ed.), (1983), Employment, Output and Inflation: The National Institute Model of the British Economy, New Hamsphire, Heinemann.Google Scholar
Browne, F.X. (1982), Modelling Export Prices and Quantities in a Small Open Economy, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 64, pp. 346347.Google Scholar
Den Hartog, H. (1984), Empirical Vintage Models for the Netherlands: A Review in Outline, De Economist, Vol. 132, N° 3, pp. 326349.Google Scholar
Geary, P.T. and Murphy, A. (1985), Real Wages and Employment: Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Approaches to the Irish Labour Market, paper presented to the Annual Conference of the IAUTE, Renvyle.Google Scholar
Goldstein, M. and Khan, M.S. (1978), The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 60, pp. 275286.Google Scholar
Helliwell, J.F. and Chung, A. (1985), Aggregate Output with Operating Rates and Inventories as Buffers between Variable Final Demand and Quasi-Fixed Factors, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper N° 1623.Google Scholar
Helliwell, J., et al (1982), Stabilization, Allocation and the 1970’s Oil Price Shocks, Scandanavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, N° 2, pp. 259288.Google Scholar
Helliwell, J., et al (1985), Aggregate Supply in Interlink: Model Specification and Empirical Results, Working Paper N° 26, Department of Economics and Statistics, OECD, Paris.Google Scholar
Honohan, P. (1982), Is Ireland a Small Open Economy?, Administration, Vol. 29, N° 4, pp. 356375.Google Scholar
Hughes, G. (1985), Payroll Tax Incidence, the Direct Tax Burden and the Rate of Return on State Pension Contributions in Ireland, Dublin : The Economic & Social Research Institute, Paper N° 120.Google Scholar
Keenan, G. (1981), Irish Migration: All or Nothing Resolved?, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 12, N° 3, pp. 169186.Google Scholar
Lindbeck, A. (1979), Imported and Structural Inflation and Aggregate Demand: The Scan-danavian Model Reconstrudted, in Lindbeck, A., (ed.), Inflation and Employment in Open Economies, Amsterdam, North-Holland.Google Scholar
Mccarthy, C. (1979), The Impact of Job Creation on Unemployment and Emigration, Quarterly Bulletin, Central Bank of Ireland, N° 2, Summer.Google Scholar
Nickell, S.J. (1984), The Modelling of Wages and Employment, Centre for Labour Economics, London School of Economics, Discussion Paper N° 187.Google Scholar
Nickell, S.J. and Andrews, M. (1983), Unions, Real Wages and Employment in Britain 1951–79, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 35 (Supplement), pp. 183206.Google Scholar
O’Malley, E. (1986), Foreign Owned Industry in Ireland : Performance and Prospects, in Bacon, P. (ed.), Medium-Term Outlook, Dublin, The Economic & Social Research Institute.Google Scholar
Rose, D.E. and Selody, J.G. (1985), The Structure of the Small Annual Model, Ottawa: Bank of Canada Technical Report N° 40.Google Scholar
Smith, B.D. (1986), Government Expenditures, Deficits, and Inflation: On the Impossibility of a Balanced Budget, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, pp. 715745.Google Scholar
Smyth, D.J. and Mcmahon, P.C. (1975), Short-Run Employment Functions for Irish Manufacturing, The Economic and Social Review, Vol. 6, N° 4 pp 531541 Google Scholar
Van de Klundert, T. (1982), Distribution, Taxation and Employment in an Open Economy, De Economist, Vol. 130, N° 1, pp. 937.Google Scholar