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Persistence and Seasonality in Output and Employment of the Federal Republic of Germany

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Jürgen Wolters
Jürgen Wolters*
Affiliation:
Freie Universität Berlin
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Summary

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether shocks to output and employment had permanent or transitory effects during the period from 1961 to 1990 in the Federal Republic of Germany. There are a lot of parametric and non-parametric approaches which can be used for data generating processes which are difference-stationary or trend-stationary. But especially output and employment time series show very strong seasonal movements. Before employing usual persistence measures one has to test for seasonal integration. The application of seasonal adjustment procedures which are typically used in practice lead to different degrees of persistence, so one has to be very careful in interpreting the results.

Résumé

Résumé

Le but de cet article est de déterminer si les effets des chocs sur la production et l'emploi en RFA, durant le période 1961-1990, furent transitoires ou permanents. Il existe de nombreuses approches paramétriques et non-paramétriques qui peuvent être utilisées pour des processus générateurs de données, qui sont stationnaires soit par différences soit par tendance. Mais ce sont surtout les séries temporelles de la production et de l'emploi qui sont caracterisees par de fortes variations saisonieres. Avant d'utiliser les mesures de persistence ordinaires, il faut tester l'intégration saisonière. La mise en oeœuvre des procédés d'ajustement saisonier utilisés habituellement conduit à différents degrés de persistence. Une grande prudence dans l'interpŕetation des résultats est dès lors requise.

Keywords

E32C22C14E32C22C14
Type
Part IV: Time Series Analysis of Output and Employment
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 58 , Issue 3-4: Output and Employment Fluctuations , 1992 , pp. 420 - 439
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1992 

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Footnotes

(*)

I thank Dr. Herbert S. Buscher and Uwe Hassler, Freie Universität Berlin, as well as three anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions.

References

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