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Les déterminants des taux d'intérêts.

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Manuel Hernandez-Lopez
Manuel Hernandez-Lopez*
Affiliation:
Institut de Recherches Economiques
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Extract

Le taux d'intérêt, “r”, étant un prix, il est déterminé par la confrontation d'une offre et d'une demande. Ceci ne nous apprend rien cependant, tant qu'on ne peut déterminer avec précision ces deux grandeurs: le problème des déterminants de “r” n'est autre que celui de l'identification précise de l'offre et de la demande de fonds.

Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 39 , Issue 1 , March 1973 , pp. 19 - 49
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1973 

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Footnotes

*

The topic of this article is the determinants of interest rates in the case of a small and open economy such as Belgium. There are four basic variables which operate as determinants of interest rates, be it short or long term, namely price, money, economic activity, and direct international influence. However some effects of these basic variables work slowly and according to certains distributions. It seems that price influences strongly the trend of interest rates; but there is no statistical evidence that the evolutions of inflation rates affect the evolution of interest rates. Liquidity effect of ΔM on “r” is obvious and instantaneous, but it decreases fast, and disappears altogether within two or three quarters. From then on, the indirect effects of ΔM on “r” begin to act and reach a peack after about six quarters. The total effect of ΔM on “r” is practically nil in the long period.

Various inquiries lead us to the conclusion that the fonctions of short and long term interest rates are quite different: for example, short term interest rate is greatly affected by both cycle and external influence, whereas long term interest rates are so much affected by those factors.

Seing that several indirect and feed-back effects can be important, and direct pull between short and long term interest rates also evident, the author proposes a new approach towards interest rates explanation: simultaneous solution of two different functions, (both for short and long term), which must be integrated within yet another model. This model should be one which would have ΔM, P, Y, “rst” and “rlt” as endogenous variables.

References

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