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Corrélations investissement-épargne et mobilité internationale des capitaux*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Jean-Pierre Berdot ,
Gérard Kébabdjian  and
Jacques Léonard
Jean-Pierre Berdot
Affiliation:
Université de Poitiers
Gérard Kébabdjian
Affiliation:
Université de Paris VIII
Jacques Léonard
Affiliation:
Université de Poitiers
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Résumé

On admet généralement que la mobilité internationale serait devenue très forte à la suite de la libéralisation et de l'intégration financière des vingt dernières années. De façon surprenante, la plupart des travaux empiriques « à la Feldstein-Horioka » ne valident cette hypothèse. Une reconsidération de ces estimations conduit toutefois à des résultats neufs. Les tests, même classiques, confortent l'idée d'un accroissement à long terme de la mobilitéet la tendance s'est accentuée depuis le début des années quatre-vingt. Tous les pays industrialisés, grands ou petits, sont concernés par cette augmentation; la globalisation financière marque néanmoins une frontière entre ces pays et les pays émergents pour lesquels l'investissement demeure dépendant de l'épargne intérieure. Dans l'ensemble, la décorrélation entre investissement et épargne se manifeste par une plus grande autonomie des flux de capitaux. La relation linéaire entre investissement et épargne pivote autour d'un point fixe représenté par le taux d'épargne mondial. Le positionnement des pays par rapport à ce point fixe permet d'établir une typologie robuste qui remet en cause l'idée reçue selon laquelle tous les pays seraient égaux devant la globalisation financière.

Summary

Summary

According to conventional wisdom, international capital mobility has increased at an accelerating rate due to financial globalization for the last twenty years. Surprisingly, the Feldstein-Horioka work and most of subsequent research fail to confirm this increase in capital mobility. However, when econometric results are reconsidered, new evidence appears and challenges usual empirical findings. On the one hand, Feldstein-Horioka related regressions suggest that international mobility has actually increased in the long run; on the other hand, the early 1980s exhibit an acceleration in this upward trend. It is the case for all of industrialized countries, whatever their size. Nevertheless, for emerging countries saving and investment rates are still highly correlated. Taken as a whole, a lower investment-saving correlation is related to higher independence of international capital flows with respect to domestic savings. We find that the linear relationship between investment and saving rates turns around a “pivotal point” defined as the world saving rate. This criterion allows us to classify countries according to their respective situations. So, it appears that countries have not equally benefited from financial markets liberalization.

Keywords

GlobalisationMouvements de capitauxIntégration financièreE44F3F4F21globalisationcapital flowsfinancial integrationE44F3F4F21
Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 69 , Issue 1 , 2003 , pp. 5 - 38
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2003 

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Footnotes

**

Professeur à I'Université de Poitiers, membre du Centre de Recherche sur l'intégration Économique et Financière (CRIEF), Faculté de Sciences Économiques, 93 avenue du Recteur Pineau, 86022 Poitiers Cedex, e-mail: [email protected]

***

Professeur à I'Universite de Paris VIII, membre du Centre d'Études en Macroéconomie et Finance Internationale (CEMAFI), Université de Nice - Sofia Antipolis, 7 avenue Robert Schuman, 06050 Nice Cedex, e-mail: [email protected]

****

Professeur à I'Université de Poitiers, membre du Centre de Recherche sur l'intégration Économique et Financière (CRIEF), Faculté de Sciences Économiques, 93 avenue du Recteur Pineau, 86022 Poitiers Cedex, e-mail: [email protected]

*

Les auteurs remercient leurs trois rapporteurs anonymes, et tout particulièrement le dernier d'entre eux, pour leurs précieux commentaires et remarques constructives. L'entière responsabilité de cet article leur incombe néanmoins. Version définitive:avril 2001.

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