Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-gb8f7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-22T22:31:19.820Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Banque Centrale Européenne, relations stratégiques internationales et stabilisation de la dette

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Charles Figuières
Get access

Abstract:

The adoption of a common central Bank has modified the strategic relationships between fiscal and monetary authorities and raised in a new context the issue of debt stabilization. To study this problem, Van Aarle et al (1997) have proposed a two-country model with a common central bank. In a sense they obtained a neutrality result: the adoption of a common central bank does not modify the evolution of debt if the authorities can commit. This note reexamines this neutrality result by departing from the previous authors on three points: i) externalities are introduced between countries to account for the elasticity of the world interest rate to macro-economic policies, ii) the model features n countries, some of them remaining outside the monetary Union, iii) analytical results are given (many results of Van Aarle et al (1997) were numeric). In this extended context the neutrality result collapses: i) the institutional change introduces an asymmetry between countries, ii) countries inside the monetary union improve their long run welfare, iii) but the outside countries can win or lose under the new institutional setting.

Résumé:

Résumé:

L’adoption d’une Banque centrale européenne a modifié les relations stratégiques entre les autorités fiscale et monétaire et pose sous un jour nouveau la question de la stabilisation de la dette. Pour étudier ce problème, Van Aarle et al (1997) ont proposé un modèle à deux pays avec une Banque centrale commune. Ils obtiennent un résultat de neutralité: le changement institutionnel ne modifie pas l’évolution de la dette si les autorités peuvent s’engager. Cette note réexamine ce résultat de neutralité en s’écartant des auteurs précédents sur trois points: i) des externalités entre les pays sont introduites en raison de l’élasticité du taux d’intérêt mondial aux variables macroéconomiques; ii) le modèle comporte n pays dont certains restent en dehors de l’Union monétaire; iii) les résultats sont analytiques (la plupart des résultats de Van Aarle et al (1997) étaient numériques). Dans ce nouveau contexte le résultat de neutralité s’effrondre: i) une asymétrie apparaît entre les pays; ii) les pays de l’Union améliorent leur bien-être de long terme; iii) en dehors de l’Union les pays peuvent voir leur bien-être s’améliorer ou se dégrader.

Keywords

European Central Bankdebt stabilizationmacroeconomic policiesdynamic gamesC73D92L16Banque Centrale Européennestabilisation de la dettepolitiques macroéconomiquesjeux dynamiquesC73D92L16
Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 74 , Issue 2 , 2008 , pp. 167 - 190
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 2008 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

INRA, UMR LAMETA, 2 place Viala, 34060 Montpellier, France. E-mail: [email protected].

References

Références

Arrow, K. J. and Kurz, M. (1970). Public Investment, the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy, Baltimore: John Hopkins Press.Google Scholar
Ball, L. and Mankiw, N.G. (1995). “What Do Budget Deficits Do?”, NBER working paper, 5263.Google Scholar
Bas van, Aarle., Lans Bovenberg, A., Raith, Matthias G. (1997). “Is there a tragedy of a common central bank? A dynamic analysis”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21, 417–447.Google Scholar
Basar, T. and Olsder, G. J. [1982] (1995). Dynamic Non Cooperative Game Theory, second edition, London and San Diego: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Beetsma, R. W. J. and Bovenberg, A. L. (1997). “Central Bank Independance and Public Debt Policy”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21(45), pp. 873–94.Google Scholar
Benaïm, S. (1999). “Interdépendances entre les taux d’intérêt à long terme”, Economie et Sociétés, Série “Monnaie”, ME, n° 1–2, 9–10, 119–155.Google Scholar
Bernhardsen, T. (2000). “The relationship between interest rate differentials and macroeconomic variables: a panel data study for European countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 19, 289–308.Google Scholar
Bovenberg, A. L., Kremers, J. J. M., and Mason, P. R. (1991). “Economic and monetary union in Europe and constraints on national budgetary policies”, IMF Staff Papers, 38, 374–398.Google Scholar
Bryson, J.H.. (1994). “Macroeconomic Stabilization through Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination: Implication for European Monetary Union”, Open Economies Review, 5(4), 307–26.Google Scholar
Bryson, J.-H., Jenssen, H. and Van Hoose, D.D. (1993). “Rules, Discretion, and International Monetary and Fiscal Policy Coordination”, Open Economies Review, 4(2), 117–32.Google Scholar
Capoen, F., Sterdyniak, H. et Villa, P. (1994). «Indépendance des Banques centrales, politiques monétaire et budgétaire: une approche stratégique», Document de travail de l’OFCE, n° 94–03, juin.Google Scholar
Cebula, R. (1999). “Budget Déficits, Capital Flows and Long-Term Interest Rates: Cointegration Findings for the United Kingdom”, International Advances in Economic Research, 5(4), 489–95.Google Scholar
Cebula, R. (1997a). “Structural Budget Deficits and the Ex-Ante Real Long Term Interest Rate: an Analysis of the Direction of Causality”, Public Finance, 52(1), 36–49.Google Scholar
Cebula, R. (1997b). “Government Deficits, ex post Real Long-Term Interest Rates and Causality”, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quaterly Review, 50(202), 325–36.Google Scholar
Cebula, R. and Koch, J.V. (1999). “U.S. Federal Budget Deficits: An Exploratory Empirical Note on Determining Factors during the Carter and Reagan Administrations”, Economia Internazionale, 52(3), 309–15.Google Scholar
Cebula, R. (2000). “Impact of Budget Deficits on Ex Post Real Long-Term Interest Rates”, Applied Economic Letters, 7(3), 177–79.Google Scholar
Cheng, B. (1998). “The Causality between Budget Deficit and Interest Rates in Japan: An Application of Time Series Analysis”, Applied Economics Letters, 5(7), 419–22.Google Scholar
Debelle, G.L. (1994). Central Bank Independance and Inflation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ph.D.Google Scholar
Debelle, G. and Fisher, S. (1994). “How Independent Should a Central Bank Be?”, in: Fuhrer, J. and Goals, C., Guidelines and constraints facing monetary policymakers: Proceedings of a conference held at Norht Falmouth, Massachusets, Conference series, n° Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 195–221.Google Scholar
Domenech, R., Taguas, D. and Varela, J. (2000). “The Effects of Budget Deficit on National Saving in the OECD”, Economic Letters, 69(3), 377–83.Google Scholar
Elmendorf, D.W. and Mankiw, N.G. (1999). Government Debt, in: Taylor, J. B. and Woodford, M. eds, Handbook of Macroeconomics, Amsterdam: Elsevier, B. V., vol. 1, pp. 1615–1699.Google Scholar
Figuières, C. (1999). «Banque centrale commune, relations stratégiques internationales et stabilisation de la dette», document de travail GREQAM n° 99A16.Google Scholar
Hardin, G. (1968). “The Tragedy of the Commons”, Science, 162, 1243–48.Google Scholar
Knot, K. and de Haan, J. (1995). “Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates in the European Community”, European Journal of Political Economy, 11(1), 171–87.Google Scholar
Krichel, T., Levine, P. and Pearlman, J. (1996). “Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: Credible Inflation Targets or Monetized Debt?”, Weltwirtschaftliches-Archiv, 132(1), 28–54.Google Scholar
Levine, P. (1993). “Fiscal policy coordination under EMU and the choice of monetary instrument”, The Manchester School, 61, 1–12.Google Scholar
Levine, P., Brociner, A. (1994). “Fiscal policy coordination and EMU: a Dynamic Game Approach”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(3–4), 699–729.Google Scholar
Levine, P. and Pearlman, J. (1992). “Fiscal and Monetary Policy Under EMU: Credible Inflation Targets or Unpleasant Monetary Arithmetic?”, CEPR discussion paper 701.Google Scholar
Linde, J. (2001). “Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates in a Small Open Economy”, Finnish Economic Papers, 14(2), 65–83.Google Scholar
Llau, P. et Percebois, J. (1996). “Déficits et dettes publics, Revue française de finances publiques”, Economie et finances publiques, 55, 49–64.Google Scholar
Mankiw, G. (1992). Macroeconomics, Sixth edition, Worth Publishers.Google Scholar
Miller, M. et Salmon, M. (1985a), “Dynamic Games and the Time Inconsistency of Optimal Policy in Open Economies”, Economic Journal (supplement), 95(0), 124–37.Google Scholar
Miller, M. et Salmon, M. (1985b). Policy Coordination and Dynamic Games, in: Buiter, W.-H. and Marston, R. C. eds, International Economic Policy Coordination, New-York and Sydney: Cambridge University Press, 184–213.Google Scholar
Nogues, J. and Grandes, M. (2001). “Country Risk: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political Noise?”, Journal of Applied Economics, 4(1), 125–62.Google Scholar
Nordhaus, W. (1993). “Coordination and Independance in Monetary and Fiscal Policies”, Rivista di Politica Economica, dicembre, 219–250.Google Scholar
Oor, A., Edey, M. et Kennedy, M. (1995). “The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence”, OCDE Economic Department working paper n° 155.Google Scholar
Passet, O. (1997). “Le rôle des déficits publics dans la formation des taux d’intérêt”, Revue de l’OFCE, 0(62), 29–74.Google Scholar
Persson, T. (1985). “Deficits and intergenerational welfare in open economies”, Journal of International Economics, 19, 67–84.Google Scholar
Phelps, E. S. (1994). Structural Slump: the Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Assets, Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Pindyck, R.-S. (1976). “The Costs of Conflicting Objectives in Policy Formulation”, Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 5(2), 239–48.Google Scholar
Sargent, T. J. and Wallace, N. (1981). “Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetics”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quaterly Review 5, 1–17.Google Scholar
Tabellini, G. (1986). “Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 10, 427–442.Google Scholar
Tabellini, G. and La Via, V. (1989). “Money, Deficits and Public Debt in the United States”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 15–25.Google Scholar
Tseng, K.C. (2000). “The Relationship between Federal Deficits and Real Interest Rates”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 14(1), 5–15.Google Scholar