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Amplification des cycles: le rôle des facteurs financiers, des rigidités et des anticipations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Patrick Artus
Patrick Artus*
Affiliation:
Caisse des depôts et consignations, Paris
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Résumé

La possibilité selon laquelle la flexibilité des prix et des salaires peut augmenter l’ampleur des fluctuations cycliques a été avancée. Si ces grandeurs nominales sont flexibles, en cas de récession la baisse de prix pourrait faire monter le taux d’intérêt réel, freinant ainsi encore davantage la demande, et aggravant la crise. On rejoint ainsi la théorie de la “debt deflation”: dans les récessions, la baisse de prix accroît la valeur réelle de l’endettement, dégrade la situation financière des agents emprunteurs et concourt au recul de l’activité. Cette théorie pourrait retrouver une actualité aujourd'hui, en particulier dans des pays comme la France, en raison de la réduction des rigidités qui affectaient les marchés du travail. Nous l’analysons à l’aide d’un modèle simple faisant intervenir le mode de formation des salaires, les anticipations d’inflation, diverses possibilités de distorsions nominales ou rigidités, et plusieurs chocs aléatoires affectant l’économie.

Summary

Summary

It has been argued that the flexibility of prices or wages can increase the size of cyclical fluctuations. In case of a recession, the decrease in inflation might lead to an increase in real interest rates, hence a further decline in demand. This is similar to the “debt deflation” theory: during cyclical downturns, the decrease in prices causes an increase in the real value of debt, worsens the financial situation of borrowers, and contributes to the reduction of production. That theory is probably relevant in countries like France because of the reduction of rigidities on the labor market. We analyze it using a simple theoretical model which describes wage formation, and shows how nominal distorsions change the effects of random disturbances.

Keywords

130130
Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 58 , Issue 2 , 1992 , pp. 173 - 190
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1992 

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References

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