Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-08T09:17:47.930Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Amplification des cycles: le rôle des facteurs financiers, des rigidités et des anticipations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Patrick Artus*
Affiliation:
Caisse des depôts et consignations, Paris
Get access

Résumé

La possibilité selon laquelle la flexibilité des prix et des salaires peut augmenter l’ampleur des fluctuations cycliques a été avancée. Si ces grandeurs nominales sont flexibles, en cas de récession la baisse de prix pourrait faire monter le taux d’intérêt réel, freinant ainsi encore davantage la demande, et aggravant la crise. On rejoint ainsi la théorie de la “debt deflation”: dans les récessions, la baisse de prix accroît la valeur réelle de l’endettement, dégrade la situation financière des agents emprunteurs et concourt au recul de l’activité. Cette théorie pourrait retrouver une actualité aujourd'hui, en particulier dans des pays comme la France, en raison de la réduction des rigidités qui affectaient les marchés du travail. Nous l’analysons à l’aide d’un modèle simple faisant intervenir le mode de formation des salaires, les anticipations d’inflation, diverses possibilités de distorsions nominales ou rigidités, et plusieurs chocs aléatoires affectant l’économie.

Summary

Summary

It has been argued that the flexibility of prices or wages can increase the size of cyclical fluctuations. In case of a recession, the decrease in inflation might lead to an increase in real interest rates, hence a further decline in demand. This is similar to the “debt deflation” theory: during cyclical downturns, the decrease in prices causes an increase in the real value of debt, worsens the financial situation of borrowers, and contributes to the reduction of production. That theory is probably relevant in countries like France because of the reduction of rigidities on the labor market. We analyze it using a simple theoretical model which describes wage formation, and shows how nominal distorsions change the effects of random disturbances.

Keywords

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1992 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Ball, L., Mankiw, G. et Romer, D. (1988), The new Keynesian Economies and the Output-Inflation tradeoff, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 1, 166.Google Scholar
Barsky, B. et Solon, G. (1989), Real Wages over the Business Cycle, NBER Working Paper, Mars, 1888.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B. (1983): Non monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression, American Economic Review, vol. 73, 257276.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B. et Powell, J. (1986), The Cyclical Behavior of Industrial Labor Markets : a Comparison of the Prewar and Postwar Eras, in Gordon, R. (ed), The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O. et Kiyotaki, N. (1987), Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand, American Economic Review, Septembre, 647666.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O. et Summers, L. (1986), Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem, NBER Macroeconomics Annuel, MIT Press.Google Scholar
De Long, J. et Summers, L. (1984), The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States, NBER Working Paper n° 1450 et (1986) in Gordon, R. (ed), The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Driskill, R. et Sheffrin, S. (1986), Is Price Flexibility Destabilizing?, American Economic Review, September, 802807.Google Scholar
Mankiw, N. (1985), Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles : a Macroeco-nomic Model of Monopoly, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Mars, 529539.Google Scholar
Morrison, C. (1988), Markups in US and Japanese Manufacturing: a Short run Econometric Analysis, NBER Working Paper, Décembre, 2799.Google Scholar
Rotemberg, J. et Saloner, G. (1986), A Supergame Theoretic Model of Price Wars During Booms, American Economic Review, Juin, 390407.Google Scholar
Sheffrin, S. (1988), Have Economic Fluctuations been Dampened? A Look at Evidence outside the United States, Journal of Monetary Economics, Janvier, 7384.Google Scholar
Stiglitz, J. (1984), Price Rigidities and Market Structure, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Mars, 350355.Google Scholar
Stiglitz, J. (1986), Theories of Wage Rigidity, in Butkiewicz, J. Koford, K. et Miller, J. Keynes’ Economic Legacy : contemporary economic theories, New York, Praeger.Google Scholar
Zarnovitz, V. (1989): Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience : Causes and Effects of Observed Changes, NBER Working Paper, 3132, Octobre.Google Scholar