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A Bayesian Approach to the Estimation of Radiocarbon Calibration Curves: The IntCal09 Methodology

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  18 July 2016

T J Heaton ,
P G Blackwell  and
C E Buck
T J Heaton*
Affiliation:
Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom.
P G Blackwell
Affiliation:
Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom.
C E Buck
Affiliation:
Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom.
*
1 Corresponding author. Email: [email protected].
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Abstract

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This article presents a new approach to the construction of radiocarbon calibration curves. The Bayesian methodology was developed specifically to facilitate construction of the 2009 updates to the internationally agreed 14C calibration curves known as IntCal09 and Marine09. The curve estimation approach taken uses Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, specifically a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler, which offers improved flexibility and reliability over the approaches used in the past. In particular, the method allows accurate modeling of calibration data with 14C determinations that arise from material deposited over several consecutive calendar years and that exhibit complex uncertainty structures on their calendar date estimates (arising from methods such as wiggle-matching and varve counting).

Type
Articles
Information
Radiocarbon , Volume 51 , Issue 4 , 2009 , pp. 1151 - 1164
Copyright
Copyright © The Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona 

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